Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mitsuru Katagiri Author-Name-First: Mitsuru Author-Name-Last: Katagiri Author-Email: mitsuru.katagiri@boj.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Japan Author-Name: Hideki Konishi Author-Name-First: Hideki Author-Name-Last: Konishi Author-Email: h.konishi@waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Name: Kozo Ueda Author-Name-First: Kozo Author-Name-Last: Ueda Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: kozo.ueda@waseda.jp Title: Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective Abstract: Negative correlations between inflation and demographic aging were observed across developed nations recently. To understand the phenomenon from a politico-economic perspective, we embed the fiscal theory of the price level into an overlapping-generations model. In the model, successive short-lived governments choose income tax rates and bond issues considering the political influence of existing generations and the policy response of future governments. The model sheds new light on the traditional debate about the burden of national debt. Because of price adjustments, the accumulation of government debt does not become a burden on future generations. Our analysis reveals that the effects of aging depend on its causes. Aging is deflationary when caused by an increase in longevity but inflationary when caused by a decline in birth rate. Numerical simulation shows that aging over the past 40 years in Japan generated deflation of about 0.6 percentage points annually. Length: 29 pages Creation-Date: 2014-11 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1413Katagiri_Konishi_Ueda.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 1413 Classification-JEL: D72, E30, E62, E63, H60 Keywords: Fiscal theory of the price level, Politico-economic equilibrium Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1413 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yoshiaki Ogura Author-Name-First: Yoshiaki Author-Name-Last: Ogura Author-Email: yogura@waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Japan Title: The Certification Role of Pre-IPO Banking Relationships: IPO Underpricing and Post-IPO Performance in Japan Abstract: We find empirical evidence that pre-IPO relationships with commercial banks through lending and investment via their venture capital subsidiaries significantly reduces IPO underpricing, whereas the affiliation between a lead underwriter and venture backing the IPO company does not. We also obtain evidence for lower post-IPO risk and return for firms with a pre-IPO banking relationship. These findings suggest that a pre-IPO banking relationship certifies the low risk of an IPO firm, whereas investors' concerns about conflicts of interest are not significant. Given the fact that institutional investors are a minority in the allocation of IPO stocks in Japan, the former effect is expected to come mainly from reducing either the investors' winner's curse or the signaling incentive of IPO firms, rather than from the reduction in the information rent for institutional investors participating in the book-building process. Length: 53 pages Creation-Date: 2015-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/05/No.E1423Yoshiaki-Ogura.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1423 Classification-JEL: G21, L14, D82 Keywords: IPO underpricing, winner's curse, information revelation, conflict of interests, relationship banking Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1423 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Toshi H. Arimura Author-Name-First: Toshi H. Author-Name-Last: Arimura Author-Email: toshi.arimura@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Japan Author-Name: Hajime Katayama Author-Name-First: Hajime Author-Name-Last: Katayama Author-Email: hajime.katayama@waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: School of Commerce, Waseda University Author-Name: Mari Sakudo Author-Name-First: Mari Author-Name-Last: Sakudo Author-Email: marisakudo@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Research Institute of Capital Foundation, Development Bank of Japan Title: Do Social Norms Matter to Energy Saving Behavior? Endogenous Social and Correlated Effects Abstract: Social norms have received growing attention as a potential driver for pro-environmental behavior, partly due to ample evidence based on survey data. Using data from a Japanese household survey on energy saving behavior, we estimate a structural model of social interactions that account for methodological issues inherent in survey data, namely: simultaneity, common shocks and nonrandom group selection. We find that the influence of social norms on energy saving behavior is small or insignificant, while estimates from standard methods in the literature are found to be large and highly significant. Our results suggest that evidence in previous survey-based studies may reflect correlation in unobserved characteristics between members in a group, not the influence of social norms. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2013 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1312Arimura_Katayama_Sakudo.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2013 Number: 1312 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1312 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shiro Takeda Author-Name-First: Shiro Author-Name-Last: Takeda Author-Email: shiro.takeda@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Kyoto Sangyo University Author-Name: Toshi H. Arimura Author-Name-First: Toshi H. Author-Name-Last: Arimura Author-Email: toshi.arimura@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Name: Makoto Sugino Author-Name-First: Makoto Author-Name-Last: Sugino Author-Email: makoto.sug@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Yamagata University Title: Labor Market Distortions and Welfare-Decreasing International Emissions Trading Abstract: International emissions trading (IET) has been widely recognized as a preferred approach for tackling the climate change because it would equalize total abatement costs and generates gains for all participants. However, this argument is heavily premised on the notion of partial equilibrium and ignores general equilibrium effects of IET. Using a multi-region, multi-sector CGE model, this paper analyzes effects of IET with focus on labor market distortions. We construct four separate models with several different labor market specifications: i) a model without labor market distortions (i.e. where the labor supply is determined exogenously and wages are flexible); ii) a model with tax-interaction effects in the labor market (i.e. where the labor supply is endogenously determined and a labor tax exists); iii) a model with a minimum wage; and iv) the final model is one in which a wage curve determines wages. We use these models to analyze how the effects of IET change according to model specification. The main results from the analysis are as follows. First, we found that IET generates gains for all participants in the model without labor market distortions. Second, even in the models with labor market distortions, importers of emissions permits are highly likely to benefit. Conversely, we show that the possibility of a welfare loss from IET is not as small for exporters of permits. In particular, in the minimum wage and wage curve models, we found that the exporters of emissions permits are likely to be disadvantaged. However, this also depends on the region in question. For example, China is likely to suffer under IET, whereas Russia, also an exporter, is likely to benefit. We also make clear that if policies are employed to correct (i.e. reduce) labor market distortions when emissions regulation is introduced, all participants will benefit from IET in almost all cases. It is generally recognized that IET is a desirable policy that benefits all participating regions. However, we show that an analysis that does not take account of such labor market distortions will likely overestimate the benefits of IET for permit exporters. Length: 39 pages Creation-Date: 2015-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1422Takeda_Arimura_Sugino.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1422 Classification-JEL: Keywords: international emissions trading, labor market, computable general equilibrium analysis, tax-interaction effect, minimum wage, wage curve Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1422 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yasushi Asako Author-Name-First: Yasushi Author-Name-Last: Asako Author-Email: yasushi.asako@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Title: Partially Binding Platforms: Campaign Promises vis-a-vis Cost of Betrayal Abstract: This study examines and models the effects of partially binding campaign platforms in a political competition. Here, a candidate who implements a policy that differs from the platform must pay a cost of betrayal, which increases with the size of the discrepancy. I also analyze endogenous decisions by citizens to run for an election. In particular, the model is able to show two implications that previous frameworks have had di￠ culty with. First, candidates with different characteristics have different probabilities of winning an election. Second, even knowing that he/she will lose an election, a candidate will still run, hoping to make an opponent?s policy approach his/her own policy. Length: 47 pages Creation-Date: 2014-08 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1409Yasushi_Asako.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 1409 Classification-JEL: C72, D72 Keywords: political competition, endogenous candidates, campaign promises Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1409 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yasushi Asako Author-Name-First: Yasushi Author-Name-Last: Asako Author-Email: yasushi.asako@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Title: Campaign Promises as an Imperfect Signal: How does an Extreme Candidate Win against a Moderate Candidate? Abstract: This study develops a political competition model in which campaign platforms are partially binding. A candidate who implements a policy that differs from his/her platform must pay a cost of betrayal, which increases with the size of the discrepancy. I also assume that voters are uncertain about candidates' policy preferences. If voters believe that a candidate is likely to be extreme, there exists a semi-separating equilibrium: an extreme candidate imitates a moderate candidate, with some probability, and approaches the median policy with the remaining probability. Although an extreme candidate will implement a more extreme policy than will a moderate candidate, regardless of imitation or approach, partial pooling ensures that voters prefer an extreme candidate who does not pretend to be moderate over an uncertain candidate who announces an extreme platform. As a result, a moderate candidate never has a higher probability of winning than does an extreme candidate. Length: 48 pages Creation-Date: 2014-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.E1411Yasushi-Asako.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 1411 Classification-JEL: C72, D72, D82 Keywords: electoral competition, voting, campaign promise, signaling game Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1411 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yasushi Asako Author-Name-First: Yasushi Author-Name-Last: Asako Author-Email: yasushi.asako@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Name: Takeshi Iida Author-Name-First: Takeshi Author-Name-Last: Iida Author-Email: tiida@mail.doshisha.ac.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Law, Doshisha University Author-Name: Tetsuya Matsubayashi Author-Name-First: Tetsuya Author-Name-Last: Matsubayashi Author-Email: matsubayashi@osipp.osakau.ac.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Author-Name: Michiko Ueda Author-Name-First: Michiko Author-Name-Last: Ueda Author-Email: michiko.uedaballmer@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Political Science, Syracuse University Title: Dynastic Politicians: Theory and Evidence from Japan Abstract: Dynastic politicians, defined as those whose family members have also served in the same position in the past, occupy a sizable portion of offices in many parts of the world. We develop a model of how dynastic politicians with inherited political advantages affect electoral outcomes and policy choices. Our model predicts that, as compared wit non-dynastic legislators, dynastic legislators bring more distributions to the district, enjoy higher electoral success, and harm the economic performance of the districts despite the larger amount of distributive benefits they bring. We test the implications of the model using data from Japan between 1997 and 2007. Length: 42 pages Creation-Date: 2014 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1412Asako_Iida_Matsubayashi_Ueda.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 1412 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1412 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yasushi Asako Author-Name-First: Yasushi Author-Name-Last: Asako Author-Email: yasushi.asako@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Name: Tetsuya Matsubayashi Author-Name-First: Tetsuya Author-Name-Last: Matsubayashi Author-Email: matsubayashi@osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Osaka University Title: The Business Cycle and the Entry of Third-Party Candidates in the US State-Level Elections Abstract: This study offers a new explanation for the entry of third-party and independent candidates into the US state-level elections. We argue that the economic benefits of holding an office is what motivates amateur politicians to run, predicting that amateur politicians find holding an elected office particularly attractive when the private sector is struggling. This is because, during the recession, amateur politicians view that an elected office is a more attractive source of income as compared to private jobs, while pursuing political power to change the economic prospect by adopting a new policy. Building on this argument, we hypothesize that as the unemployment rate increases, the number of third-party and independent candidates increases. Our analysis with panel data of state house, state senate, and gubernatorial elections in 48 US states between 1980 and 2010 reveals that the hypothesized relationship existed only for state legislative elections. To explain why these candidates run, despite their very small probability of winning, we extend the prospect theory to suggest that these candidates may overestimate their probability of winning. Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2014-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1414Asako_Matsubayashi.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 1414 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1414 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yasushi Asako Author-Name-First: Yasushi Author-Name-Last: Asako Author-Email: yasushi.asako@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Title: One-sided Games in a War of Attrition Abstract: This study develops a war-of-attrition model with the asymmetric feature that one player can be defeated by the other but not vice versa; that is, only one player has an exogenous probability of being forced to capitulate. With complete information, the equilibria are almost identical to the canonical war-of-attrition model. On the other hand, with incomplete information on a player's robustness, a war where both players fight for some duration emerges. Moreover, a player who is never defeated may capitulate in equilibrium, and this player will give in earlier if the other player's fighting costs are greater. Length: 23 pages Creation-Date: 2015-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/02/No.E1420Yasushi-Asako.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1420 Classification-JEL: C72, D82, D83 Keywords: war, attrition, Bayesian learning, asymmetric robustness Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1420 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Koji Yokote Author-Name-First: koji Author-Name-Last: Yokote Author-Email: sidehand@toki.waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Email: funaki@waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Title: Weak Surplus Mononicity characterizes convex combination of egalitarian Shapley value and Consensus value Abstract: We deal with the problem of striking a balance between marginalism and egalitarianism in the class of TU cooperative games. Weintroduce a new axiom, Weak Surplus Monotonicity. It states that if the marginal contribution of a player increases, the worth of the grand coalition increases and the cooperative surplus increases, then the payoff of the player should also increase. We show that a solution satisfies Efficiency, Symmetry and Weak Surplus Monotonicity if and only if it is a convex combination of the Shapley value, the Equal division and the CIS value. By replacing the new axiom with a stronger axiom and taking the dual, we obtain 11 characterizations of solutions, including the results of Young (1985) or Casajus and Huettner (2014). Length: 31 pages Creation-Date: 2015-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1504Yokote_Funaki.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1504 Classification-JEL: C71 Keywords: TU game; Shapley value; Monotonicity; Axiomatization Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1504 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Koji Yokote Author-Name-First: koji Author-Name-Last: Yokote Author-Email: sidehand@toki.waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Email: funaki@waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Title: Several bases of a game space and an application to the Shapley value Abstract: We introduce several bases of the set of TU games. Given a coalition T, Yokote et al. (2013) introduced the commander game in which a coalition including 1 player in T obtains payoff. On the other hand, Shapley (1953) introduced the unanimity game in which a coalition including all players in To btains payoff. We consider the intermediate between the two games. We introduce a game in which a coalition including k players in To btains payoff, where 1 ≤ k ≤| T |. We show that, if there is a specific relationship between the size of coalition T and k, we can construct a new basis. By using the new basis, we give sufficient conditions under which the Shapley value coincides with the prenucleolus. Length: 19 pages Creation-Date: 2015-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1419Yokote_Funaki.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1419 Classification-JEL: C71 Keywords: basis; Shapley value; prenucleolus; coincidence condition Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1419 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Koji Yokote Author-Name-First: Koji Author-Name-Last: Yokote Author-Email: sidehand@toki.waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Email: funaki@waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Name: Yoshio Kamijo Author-Name-First: Yoshio Author-Name-Last: Kamijo Author-Workplace-Name: Kochi University of Technology, Department of Management Title: A new basis and the Shapley value Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new basis of the set of all TU games. Shapley (1953) introduced the unanimity game inwhich cooperation of all players in a given coalition yields payoff. We introduce the commander game in which only one player in a given coalition yields payoff. The set of the commander games forms a basis and has two properties. First, when we express a game by a linear combination of the basis, the coefficients related to singletons coincide with the Shapley value. Second, the basis induces the null space of the Shapley value. Length: 11 pages Creation-Date: 2015-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1418Yokote_Funaki_Kamijo.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1418 Classification-JEL: C71 Keywords: TU game; Shapley value; Basis; Null space Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1418 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Amos James Ibrahim-Shwilima Author-Name-First: Amos Author-Name-Last: Ibrahim-Shwilima Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo: Japan Title: Economic growth and nonrenewable resources: An empirical investigation Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the role of nonrenewable resources in economic growth from 1995–2010. The surprising result is that the share of nonrenewable resource exports in 1996 GDP was positively associated with subsequent economic growth. In fact, for the period under study, we found no strong evidence of the resource curse, after controlling for other important determinants of economic growth. For the period under study, most economies were open and followed policies that enabled large flows of foreign investment between economies. Our finding suggests that public institutions — measured by using an index of government effectiveness — are of paramount importance to economic growth. This suggests that if a resource-rich economy needs a greater contribution from its resources, it should improve its public- and private-sector institutions. Length: 20 pages Creation-Date: 2015-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/01/No.E1416Amos-James-Ibrahim-Shwilima.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1416 Classification-JEL: Keywords: growth, primary-product exports, nonrenewable resources, institutions Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1416 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masahiro Tanaka Author-Name-First: Masahiro Author-Name-Last: Tanaka Author-Email: gspddlnit@toki.waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Title: Measuring Political Budget Cycles: A Bayesian Semiparametric Assessment Abstract: In this paper, we estimate the effects of political variables, including the government's popularity (approval rate) and term in office (tenure), on fiscal variables without any assumption of functional form, using a Bayesian semiparametric regression technique and US data. Our main findings are twofold. First, the effects of term in office are not statistically significant; that is, we find no evidence of either an unconditional or popularity-conditional political budget cycle. Second, the effects of the presidential approval rate on government consumption are U-shaped. This implies that the incumbent has an incentive to reduce government spending when the race for office is neck-and-neck, while the budget can be loosened when the incumbent is either certain to win or certain to lose the next election. The functional form of these effects is invariant throughout tenure. The estimation results indicate that incumbent politicians have an incentive to reduce federal government consumption to signal their competence to voters who are fiscally conservative, and that the political incentive to manipulate fiscal policy arises not only immediately before elections but also throughout the term of office. Length: 65 pages Creation-Date: 2015-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/01/No.E1415Masahiro-Tanaka.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 1415 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1415 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hiroki Ozono Author-Name-First: Hiroki Author-Name-Last: Ozono Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Law, Economics and Humanities, Kagoshima University Author-Name: Yoshio Kamijo Author-Name-First: Yoshio Author-Name-Last: Kamijo Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Management, Kochi University of Technology Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Email: skazumi1961@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Title: Impact of altruistic behavior on group cooperation: A mechanism working in the presence of an altruist may solve the public goods provision problem Abstract: In this paper, we propose a new mechanism to achieve cooperation in public goods provision. The mechanism is named GEM, which stands for gradualism, endogeneity, and modification, its important properties. In a public goods game with GEM, spread over 20 periods, a target contribution is presented to the players in each period. The target is gradually increased when all members reach it. If players contribute less than the target in a certain period, the minimum contribution will be treated as the next period's target. In the experiment, the GEM mechanism achieved a high level of cooperation when the participants' contributions were restricted to the target. However, when participants were allowed to contribute more than the target, cooperation was not achieved because of the presence of“excessive altruists”—participants who contributed more than the target.This is because excessive cooperation facilitated free riding by other members. Finally,we discuss the limitation and possibilities of the GEM mechanism. Length: 32 pages Creation-Date: 2014-08 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1408Ozono_Kamijo_Shimizu.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1408 Classification-JEL: C72, C91, C92, M54 Keywords: cooperation, public goods game, altruist, experiment Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1408 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kojun Hamada Author-Name-First: Kojun Author-Name-Last: Hamada Author-Email: khamada@econ.niigata-u.ac.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, Niigata University Author-Name: Akihiko Kaneko Author-Name-First: Akihiro Author-Name-Last: Kaneko Author-Email: akaneko@waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Name: Mitsuyoshi Yanagihara Author-Name-First: Mitsuyoshi Author-Name-Last: Yanagihara Author-Email: yanagi@soec.nagoya-u.ac.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University Title: The transfer paradox in a pay-as-you-go pension system Abstract: We examine how international transfer affects welfare levels of a donor with a higher marginal propensity to save and a recipient with a lower marginal propensity to save, when both countries adopt a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system using a one-sector overlapping generations model. A PAYG pension scheme is found to lead to impairment of the donor and of the recipient as a result of the transfer under the dynamic efficiency condition. This is because the transfer increases the divergence in the rate of return between PAYG and private savings. Length: 12 pages Creation-Date: 2014-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1405Hamada_Kaneko_Yanagi.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 1405 Classification-JEL: D91, E21, F35, F43, H55 Keywords: ay-as-you-go pension, Transfer paradox, Overlapping generations model Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1405 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Amos James Ibrahim-Shwilima Author-Name-First: Amos Author-Name-Last: Ibrahim-Shwilima Author-Email: aibrahim@fuji.waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Name: Hideki Konishi Author-Name-First: Hideki Author-Name-Last: Konishi Author-Email: h.konishi@waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Title: The Impact of Tax Concessions on Extraction of Non-renewable Resources:An Application to Gold Mining in Tanzania Abstract: Gold mining firms in Tanzania pay royalty and corporate taxes, but also receive many tax concessions. Such tax incentives may cause to reschedule their extraction plans and thereby change the expected life of a gold mine. We model a representative mining firm's extraction decision using optimal control theory, into which various tax incentives are introduced to determine their theoretical impact. Our results suggest thatin the race to take advantage of tax incentives, a firm may end up making excessive investments, which in turn increases extraction rate. Actual extraction patterns of several gold mining companies in Tanzania are also reviewed. Length: 15 pages Creation-Date: 2014-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1403Ibrahim_Konishi.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 1403 Classification-JEL: Q38, H25 Keywords: Natural resources, tax incentives, corporate tax policy Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1403 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hideki Konishi Author-Name-First: Hideki Author-Name-Last: Konishi Author-Email: h.konishi@waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Title: The Political Economy of Social Security Funding: Why Social VAT Reform? Abstract: Recently, taxation reforms entailing a “social” valued-added tax (VAT), i.e., a social security reform shifting funding from traditional wage-based taxation to consumption taxation, have been obtaining political support in some developed countries; e.g. Japan, France, Denmark, and Germany. This paper analyzes the political economy of social security funding in an overlapping-generations economy. In particular, we consider how population aging influences the choice of wage or consumption tax financing by focusing on their differential impact on inter- and intragenerational redistribution. Our results show that population aging may drastically alter the political equilibrium, in that if the population growth rate is higher than the interest rate, wage taxation is the only equilibrium choice, but if it is lower, multiple equilibria are likely to emerge, in which the introduction of consumption taxation emerges as an alternative equilibrium choice. Length: 37 pages Creation-Date: 2014-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/07/No.E1402Konishi.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 1402 Classification-JEL: D78, H55 Keywords: political economy of social security, consumption tax, structure-induced equilibrium Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1402 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yoshio Kamijo Author-Name-First: Yoshio Author-Name-Last: Kamijo Author-Email: yoshio.kamijo@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: School of Management, Kochi University of Technology Author-Name: Hiroki Ozono Author-Name-First: Hiroki Author-Name-Last: Ozono Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Law, Economic and Humanities, Kagoshima University Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Title: A Mechanism That Overcomes Coordination Failure Based on Gradualism, Endogeneity, and Modification Abstract: We examine three tools that can enhance coordination success in a repeated multiple choice coordination game. Gradualism means that the game starts as an easy coordination problem and moves gradually to a more difficult one. Endogeneity implies that a gradual increase in the upper limit of coordination occurs only if coordination with the Pareto superior equilibrium in a stage game is attained. Modification requires that when they fail coordination, the level of the next coordination game is adjusted to an easier one. We find from laboratory experiment that a mechanism that combines these three, termed herein the GEM, works well. Length: 39 pages Creation-Date: 2014-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1401Shimizu.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1401 Classification-JEL: C72, C91, C92, M54 Keywords: Coordination Failure, Minimum Effort Game, Experiment, Gradualism, Endogeneity, Modification Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1401 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yasuyuki Todo Author-Name-First: Yasuyuki Author-Name-Last: Todo Author-Email: yastodo@waseda.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Name: Petr Matous Author-Name-First: Petr Author-Name-Last: Matous Author-Email: pmatous@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Complex Systems Research Group, School of Engineering, University of Sydney Author-Name: Dagne Mojo Author-Name-First: Dagne Author-Name-Last: Mojo Author-Email: dagnemojo@yahoo.com.au Author-Workplace-Name: Holetta Agricultural Research Center, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Holetta, Ethiopia Title: Effects of social network structure on the diffusion and adoption of agricultural technology: Evidence from rural Ethiopia Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of social network structure on the diffusion of agricultural technologies using household-level panel data from Ethiopia. We correct for possible biases due to the endogeneity of social networks using a social experiment in which we provide mobile phones to randomly selected households. We find that the effect of social networks varies depending on the network structure and characteristics of the technologies considered. The diffusion of information on a simple technology is determined by whether farmers know an agricultural extension agent. However, the diffusion of information on a more complex technology is not promoted by simply knowing an extension agent but by knowing an agent that a particular household can rely on and by clustered networks in which most friends of the household are friends of each other. This finding suggests that knowing and understanding more complex technologies require strong external ties and flows of the same information from multiple sources. Length: 37 pages Creation-Date: 2015-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/06/No.E1505Todo_Matous_Mojo.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1505 Classification-JEL: O13, O33, Q16 Keywords: knowledge diffusion, technology adoption, agriculture, social network, Ethiopia Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1505 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Akira Inoue Author-Name-First: Akira Author-Name-Last: Inoue Author-Workplace-Name: Ritsumeikan University Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Name: Yoshiki Wakamatsu Author-Name-First: Yoshiki Author-Name-Last: Wakamatsu Author-Workplace-Name: Gakushuin University Author-Name: Daisuke Udagawa Author-Name-First: Daisuke Author-Name-Last: Udagawa Author-Workplace-Name: Hannan University Title: Does Sunstein and Thaler's Theory Have a Broad Scope? Abstract: Sunstein and Thaler's theory aims to justify libertarian paternalism (LP), a particular version of paternalism which is in favor of policies that nudge people to choose in their own welfare-promoting direction. A normative ground of their theory for LP lies in understanding that human beings are devoid of rational capacities, as has been illuminated by many findings in cognitive psychology and behavioral economics. With this in hand, their theory goes so far as to endorse libertarian benevolence (LB), which is in favor of policies that nudge people to choose in a direction of promoting the welfare of third parties. In this paper, we examine whether this theory is broad enough so that LB can complement LP. To do so, we show the significance in their theory of a necessary (but implicitly presumed) condition for the LP- and LB-relevant cases, the condition of convergence. Since this condition is not easily met, the LP-relevant cases and especially the LB-relevant cases are much more limited than Sunstein and Thaler presume; the case of organ donation they regard as a typical LB-relevant case is exceptional. This seems a serious problem with Sunstein and Thaler's theory, since it is meant to have a broad scope in such a way that nudges can reasonably be applied to some LB cases. Length: 23 pages Creation-Date: 2015-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/07/No.E1508Inoue_Shimizu_Wakamatsu_Udagawa.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1508 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1508 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hiroki Ozono Author-Name-First: Hiroki Author-Name-Last: Ozono Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Law, Economics and Humanities, Kagoshima University Author-Name: Yoshio Kamijo Author-Name-First: Yoshio Author-Name-Last: Kamijo Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Email: skazumi1961@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Title: Institutionalize reciprocity to overcome the public goods provision problem Abstract: Cooperation is fundamental to human societies, and one of the important paths for its emergence and maintenance is reciprocity. In prisoner's dilemma (PD) experiments, reciprocal strategies are often effective at attaining and maintaining high cooperation. In many public goods (PG) games or n-person PD experiments, however, reciprocal strategies are not successful at engendering cooperation. In the present paper, we attribute this difficulty to a coordination problem against free riding among reciprocators: Because it is difficult for the reciprocators to coordinate their behaviors against free riders, this may lead to inequality among players, which will demotivate them from cooperating in future rounds. We propose a new mechanism, institutionalized reciprocity (IR), which refers to embedding the reciprocal strategy as an institution (i.e., institutionalizing the reciprocal strategy). We experimentally demonstrate that IR can prevent groups of reciprocators from falling into coordination failure and achieve high cooperation in PG games. In conclusion, we argue that a natural extension of the present study will be to investigate the possibility of IR to serve as a collective punishment system. Length: 28 pages Creation-Date: 2015-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/07/No.E1509Ozono_Kamijo_Shimizu1.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1509 Classification-JEL: C72, C91, C92, M54 Keywords: operation, public goods game, laboratory experiment, institutionalized reciprocity, raise the stakes strategy, collective punishment Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1509 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Junko Koeda Author-Name-First: Junko Author-Name-Last: Koeda Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: jkoeda@waseda.jp Title: Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns in Zero-Lower Bound and Normal Environments: Evidence from Japan Abstract: We estimate a discrete-time version of Vayanos and Vila's (2009) preferred habitat model, using Japanese government bond yield data. The estimated results indicate that bond excess returns become more sensitive to supply factors in the absence of a zero lower bound constraint unless arbitrageurs become willing to take on more risk. Length: 25 pages Creation-Date: 2015-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/07/No.E1506Junko_Koeda.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1506 Classification-JEL: C13, C32, E43, E44, E52 Keywords: Term structure model, Japanese government bonds, preferred habitat, supply factors Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1506 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: skazumi1961@gmail.com Author-Name: Daisuke Udagawa Author-Name-First: Daisuke Author-Name-Last: Udagawa Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, Hannan University Title: Is Human Life Worth Peanuts? Risk Attitude Changes in Accordance with Varying Stakes Abstract: The “peanuts effect,” which states that people are more willing to gamble when playing for "peanuts" (a small outcome), has been stably observed in the context of a small monetary stake. We conducted 2 experiments to verify whether the peanuts effect still occurred when the type of stakes changed. Our results showed that people tend to gamble more for a qualitatively smaller value when the stake is material in nature, but are less willing to take a risk for a smaller value when the stake is a human life. This risk attitude change may support the contingent weighting model. Length: 22 pages Creation-Date: 2015-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/12/No.E1518Shimizu_Udagawa.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1518 Classification-JEL: Keywords: peanuts effect, life-or-death decision, contingent weighting model, risk attitude, disappointment, monetary stakes Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1518 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: skazumi1961@gmail.com Author-Name: Yuko Morimoto Author-Name-First: Yuko Author-Name-Last: Morimoto Author-Workplace-Name: Author-Name: Motoki Watabe Author-Name-First: Motoki Author-Name-Last: Watanabe Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Name: Takeshi Iida Author-Name-First: Taakeshi Author-Name-Last: Iida Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Name: Koichi Kuriyama Author-Name-First: Koichi Author-Name-Last: Kuriyama Author-Workplace-Name: Kyoto University Title: General Guidance for Experiment using CASI Technology: Complementary Role of Web Experiment Abstract: Length: 62 pages Creation-Date: 2016-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2016/03/No.E1522-Shimizu_Morimoto_Watabe_Iida_Kuriyama.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1522 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1522 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hiroki Ozono Author-Name-First: Hiroki Author-Name-Last: Ozono Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Law, Economics and Humanities, Kagoshima University Author-Name: Nobuhito Jin Author-Name-First: Nobuhito Author-Name-Last: Jin Author-Workplace-Name: School of Psychology Practices, College of Integrated Human and Social Welfare Studies, Shukutoku University Author-Name: Motoki Watabe Author-Name-First: Motoki Author-Name-Last: Watabe Author-Workplace-Name: School of Business, MonashUniversity, Malaysia, Jalan Lagoon Selatan Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: skazumi1961@gmail.com Title: Solving the second-order free rider problem in a public goods game: An experiment using a leader support system Abstract: To study the collective action problem, researchers have investigated public goods games (PGG), in which each member decides to contribute to a common pool that returns benefits to all members equally. Punishment of non-cooperators—free riders—can lead to high cooperation in PGG. However, the existence of second-order free riders, who do not pay punishment costs, reduces the effectiveness of punishment. We focus on a “leader support system,” in which one group leader can freely punish group followers using capital pooled through the support of group followers. In our experiment, participants were asked to engage in three stages: a PGG stage in which followers decided to cooperate for their group; a support stage in which followers decided whether to support the leader or not; and a punishment stage in which the leader could punish any follower. We found both higher cooperation and higher support for a leader achieved under linkage-type leaders—who punished both non-cooperators and non-supporters. In addition, linkage-type leaders themselves earned higher profits than other leader types because they withdrew more support. This means that a leader who effectively punishes followers could increase their own benefits and the second-order free rider problem would be solved. Length: 42 pages Creation-Date: 2016-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2016/06/No.E1604Ozono_Motoki_Watabe_Shimizu.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1604 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1604 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takaaki Abe Author-Name-First: Takaaki Author-Name-Last: Abe Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: takatomo3639@asagi.waseda.jp Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: funaki@waseda.jp Title: A Necessary and Sufficient Condition for Non-Emptiness of the Core of a Partition Function Form Game Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide a necessary and sufficient condition for nonempty core in partition function form games. We generalize the Bondareva-Shapley condition for partition function form games and present the existence conditions for the pessimistic core and the optimistic core. In addition, we study the condition for the core defined by exogenously provided partitions. The balanced collections in partition function form and some applications are also discussed. Length: 20 pages Creation-Date: 2015-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/07/No.E1502Abe_Funaki.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1502 Classification-JEL: C71 Keywords: Cooperative games; Partition function; Core; Externalities Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1502 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Daichi Shimamoto Author-Name-First: Daichi Author-Name-Last: Shimamoto Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: d.shimamoto0407@gmail.com Author-Name: Yasuyuki Todo Author-Name-First: Yasuyuki Author-Name-Last: Todo Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University and Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry Author-Email: yastodo@waseda.jp Title: Economic and Political Networks and Firm Openness: Evidence from Indonesia Abstract: Using a firm-level dataset from the manufacturing sector in Indonesia, we examine how firms'ties with the government in receiving rents and with other firms and their managers' trust toward foreigners and views of globalization are correlated with each other. We find that firms' strong political ties are associated positively with the level of managers' trust toward domestic citizens and the number of domestic buyers and suppliers and negatively with their level of trust toward foreign citizens. In turn, managers' trust toward foreign citizens and firms' transactions with foreign firms are positively correlated with each other, and trust and business networks within the country also show a positive correlation. Then, when managers trust domestic citizens more or when firms transact with more domestic firms, managers are more likely to have a negative view of globalization, incorporating such factors as the foreign ownership of firms and free trade. The results suggest a vicious cycle between the political ties of local firms and protectionist views and policies against globalization, which lead to economic stagnation due to a lack of diffusion of knowledge from abroad. This mechanism may explain why middle-income countries experience economic stagnation and cannot escape the “middle-income trap.” Length: 21 pages Creation-Date: 2015-10 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/10/No.E1512Daichi-Shimamoto_Yasuyuki-Todo.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1512 Classification-JEL: D22, F14, F23 Keywords: business networks, political networks, trust, views of globalization, Indonesia Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1512 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jiangtao Fu Author-Name-First: Jiangtao Author-Name-Last: Fu Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: jetafull@gmail.com Author-Name: Daichi Shimamoto Author-Name-First: Daichi Author-Name-Last: Shimamoto Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: d.shimamoto0407@gmail.com Author-Name: Yasuyuki Todo Author-Name-First: Yasuyuki Author-Name-Last: Todo Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: yastodo@waseda.jp Title: Can Firms with Political Connections Borrow More Than Those Without? Evidence from Firm-Level Data for Indonesia Abstract: Using a unique firm-level dataset for the manufacturing sector in Indonesia, we examine how firms' political and economic connections affect their access to finance. We determine individual firms' political connections by identifying whether the government owns shares in the firm, whether politicians are on its board of directors, and whether highly-ranked managers personally know any politicians. We find that politically connected firms are more likely to be able to borrow from state-owned banks. Moreover, being connected to the government raises the probability that a firm can receive the full loan amount it applied for. The improvement in access to finance from political connections is more prominent for SMEs than for large firms. Furthermore, such improvement mostly comes from personal connections with politicians rather than more formal connections measured by the government ownershipor politicians on the board of directors. Length: 22 pages Creation-Date: 2015-10 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/10/No.E1513Jiangtao-Fu_Daichi-Shimamoto_Yasuyuki-Todo.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1513 Classification-JEL: G14; H11; L53 Keywords: Political Connections, Credit Constraints, Small and Medium Enterprises, Indonesia Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1513 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ryuichi Yamamoto Author-Name-First: Ryuichi Author-Name-Last: Yamamoto Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: ryuichi@waseda.jp Title: Dynamic predictor selection and order splitting in a limit order market Abstract: Recent empirical research has documented the clustered volatility and fat tails of return distribution in stock markets, and yet the markets are informationally efficient. Certain agentbasedtheoretical models attempt to explain the empirical features in terms of investors' ordersplitting or dynamic switching strategies, both of which are popularly used by actual stock investors. However, little theoretical research has discriminated the behavioral assumptions within a model and compared the impacts of the assumptions on the empirical features. In addition, the research has not simultaneously replicated the return features and empirical features on market microstructure, such as patterns of order choice. This study constructs an artificial limit order market, in which investors split orders into small pieces or interchangeably use fundamental and trend-following predictors over time. We demonstrate that, on the one hand, the market that features strategies with order splitting and dynamic predictor election can independently replicate clustered volatility and fat tails in an informationally efficient market. However, we also show that patterns of order choice do not match those found in certain previous empirical studies in both types of economies. Thus, we conclude that in reality, the two strategies simultaneously work to generate the empirical macroeconomic features, but that investors may also use certain other strategies in actual stock markets. In addition, we demonstrate that the impact of both strategies on the volatility persistence tends to be greater as the number of traders increases in the market; this finding implies that the order-splitting strategy and dynamic predictor selection are more crucial on the empirical phenomena that pertain to larger capital stocks. Length: 45 pages Creation-Date: 2015-10 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2015/10/No.E1514Ryuichi-Yamamoto.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1514 Classification-JEL: G12; G14 Keywords: Dynamic predictor selection; Order splitting; Volatility clustering; Fat tails; Information efficiency; Limit order market; Agent-based modeling Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1514 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yasushi Asako Author-Name-First: Yasushi Author-Name-Last: Asako Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: yasushi.asako@waseda.jp Author-Name: Tetsuya MatsubayashiAuthor-Name-First: TetsuyaAuthor-Name-Last: MatsubayashiAuthor-Workplace-Name: Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Author-Email: matsubayashi@osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp Author-Name: Michiko Ueda Author-Name-First: Michiko Author-Name-Last: Ueda Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Political Science, Syracuse University Author-Email: michiko.uedaballmer@gmail.com Title: Legislative TermLimits and Government Spending: Theory and Evidence from the United States Abstract: What are the fiscal consequences of legislative term limits? To answer this question, we first develop a legislative bargaining model that describes negotiations over the allocation of distributive projects among legislators with different levels of seniority. Building on several predictions from the model, we develop two hypotheses for empirical testing. First, the adoption of term limits that results in a larger reduction in the variance of seniority within a legislature increases the amount of government spending. Second, legislatures that adopt stricter term limits increase the amount of government spending, while legislatures that adopt moderate term limits show no change in the amount. We provide evidence for these hypotheses using panel data for 49 US state legislatures between 1980 and 2010 Length: 48 pages Creation-Date: 2016-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2016/05/No.E1603Asako_Matsubayashi_Ueda.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1603 Classification-JEL: C72, D72, H72 Keywords: Legislature; seniority; term limits; government spending; elections Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1603 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masato Shizume Author-Name-First: Masato Author-Name-Last: Shizume Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Masayoshi Tsurumi Author-Name-First: Masayoshi Author-Name-Last: Tsurumi Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Comparative Economic Studies, Hosei University Author-Email: Title: Modernizing the financial system in Japan during the 19th century: National Banks in Japan in the Context of Free Banking Abstract: In this paper, we explore the role of competing concepts of the banking system in the process of modernizing the financial system in Japan. The country has a long history of its own version of private note issuance dating back to the early 17th century. In the late 19th century, the Japanese government considered two options for modernizing its financial system, national/free banking as in the United States, and central banking as in Europe. It first decided to adopt the former because the Japanese economy was decentralized and more closely resembled the economy of the United States than that of the European countries. However, the Japanese government customized the banking system for the Japanese situation. After some trial and error, the government turned to the latter option and established the central bank in 1882. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2016-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: http://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2016/09/No.E1607Shizume_Tsurumi.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1607 Classification-JEL: Keywords: the modern banking system, free banking, national banks, the Bank of Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1607 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masato Shizume Author-Name-First: Masato Author-Name-Last: Shizume Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Financial Crises and the Central Bank: Lessons from Japan during the 1920s Abstract: A series of financial crises following a boom during World War I marked the turning point for the emergence of prudential policy in Japan. An economic backlash after the war created mounting bad loans. After the Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced a special treatment facility for the devastated area. The BOJ hoped to rescue solvent but illiquid financial institutions, but the facility was abused by banks that were already in financial distress, paving the way toward a financial crisis. Banking panic spread nationwide in the spring of 1927. In 1928, the authorities introduced new arrangements for prudential policy with mergers and acquisitions, new types of regulations, and dual inspection by the Ministry of Finance and the BOJ. These arrangements restored financial stability while imposing a new constraint on monetary policy. Length: 20 pages Creation-Date: 2016-11 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2016/11/No.E1611Shizume.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1611 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1611 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yasushi Asako Author-Name-First: Yasushi Author-Name-Last: Asako Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: yasushi.asako@waseda.jp Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: funaki@waseda.jp Author-Name: Kozo Ueda Author-Name-First: Kozo Author-Name-Last: Kozo Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) Author-Email: kozo.ueda@waseda.jp Author-Name: Nobuyuki Uto Author-Name-First: Nobuyuki Author-Name-Last: Uto Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: nobuyuki.uto@gmail.com Title: Symmetric Information Bubbles: Experimental Evidence Abstract: This study experimentally analyzes tradersíchoices, with and without asymmetric information, based on the riding-bubble model. While asymmetric information has been necessary to explain a bubble in past theoretical models, our experiments show that traders have an incentive to hold a bubble asset for longer, thereby expanding the bubble in a market with symmetric, rather than asymmetric information. This Önding implies a possibility that information symmetry promotes cooperation. However, when traders are more experienced, the size of the bubble decreases, in which case bubbles do not arise, even with symmetric information.Length: 45 pages Creation-Date: 2016-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2016/12/No.E1613Asakoy_Funaki_-Ueda_Uto.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1613 Classification-JEL: C72, D82, D84, E58, G12, G18 Keywords: riding bubbles, crashes, asymmetric information, experiment, clock game Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1613 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yuriko Takahashi Author-Name-First: Yuriko Author-Name-Last: Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: ytakahashi@waseda.jp Title: Clientelism beyond Borders? The Political-Electoral Reform of Extending Voting Rights Abroad in Mexico Abstract: This research note provides a tentative analysis of the causes and consequences of Mexico's political-electoral reform in 2014 with a special focus on the extension of voting rights to Mexicans living abroad. The reform significantly modified the rules and procedures for electing and forming a government in Mexico. Specifically, I am presenting the following arguments. Democratization via increasing electoral competition promoted the reform of extending voting rights abroad as a way of enhancing the democratic representation of Mexican migrants in foreign countries. On the other hand, the usage of postal and internet voting in a context of weak monitoring mechanisms entails the risk of “exporting” clientelism beyond borders, because politicians may have a greater incentive to cultivate support from migrants to survive competitive elections. Since clientelism erodes electoral integrity, the reform of voting rights in Mexico, which was driven by increasing electoral competition, is a double-edged sword. Based on primary and secondary sources, I provide partial evidence to support these claims and propose a viable empirical strategy to rigorously verify the validity of them. Length: 25 pages Creation-Date: 2017-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.1618Takahashi-217.3.13.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1618 Classification-JEL: Keywords: clientelism, substantive voting rights, Mexico, democratization, voting rights abroad, the 2014 political-electoral reform Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1618 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yuriko Takahashi Author-Name-First: Yuriko Author-Name-Last: Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: ytakahashi@waseda.jp Title: Varieties of Conditional Cash Transfers in Latin America Abstract: Conditional cash transfer programs (CCTs) are a new strategy for reducing poverty that aims to break the cycle of poverty that carries across generations by promoting human capital formation with a direct transfer of cash and services. In the past decades, CCTs have been introduced as an integral component of social protection in many countries in Latin America. Program designs vary significantly across countries and the factors that explain these differences in terms of coverage, beneficiary selection methods, conditionality, and support for beneficiaries' insertion into the labor market remain to be explored. Comparing the cases of Chile, Brazil, and Mexico, I demonstrate that democracy, partisanship, market openness, and economic growth rates are crucial determinants of CCT variation.Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2017-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.1619Takahashi-2017.3.13.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1619 Classification-JEL: Keywords: social protection, conditional cash transfers programs(CCTs), poverty, Latin America, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera, Bolsa Família, Ethical Family Income, Chile-Solidario Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1619 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yuriko Takahashi Author-Name-First: Yuriko Author-Name-Last: Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: ytakahashi@waseda.jp Title: Poverty, Clientelism and Democratic Accountability in Mexico Abstract: Does democracy dampen clientelism and enhance accountability in social policy making? The conventional answer to this question is that democracy is more likely to redistribute income in favor of the poor. However, recent scholarly works present evidence that the distributive politics in emerging democracies often induces office-seeking politicians to manipulate social spending for electoral gain, which make social policy less accountable to impoverished citizens. This study provides some texture to the latter argument to show that policy-oriented and institutional reforms enacted in tandem with democratization work to constrain the clientelist distribution of social spending, and help promote programmatic redistribution in favor of the poor. Focusing on the case of Mexico, I demonstrate that the introduction of conditional cash transfer programs and the development of monitoring institutions over social programs tied politicians' hands by developing institutional constraints on discretionary spending. Using an original dataset, I compare the geographic distribution of Pronasol (Programa Nacional de Solidaridad, 1988-1994) and Progresa (Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación) (1997-2002), and Oportunidades (2002-2006), and demonstrate that Mexico's anti-poverty programs became increasingly pro-poor and less clientelist over time.Length: 49 pages Creation-Date: 2017-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No1620Takahashi-2017.3.13.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1620 Classification-JEL: Keywords: democracy, clientelism, poverty alleviation, poverty, accountability, Mexico, Pronasol, Progresa, Oportunidades Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1620 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jiangtao Fu Author-Name-First: Jiangtao Author-Name-Last: Fu Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: jetafull@gmail.com Author-Name: Yoshiaki Ogura Author-Name-First: Yoshiaki Author-Name-Last: Ogura Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: yogura@waseda.jp Title: Product Network Connectivity and Information for Loan Pricing Abstract: A theory predicts that loan pricing is less sensitive to public information, such as a credit score provided by a credit information vendor, if the lender obtains more accurate private information about the credit quality of borrowers. We find that loan pricing is less sensitive to public information when a borrower is more connected with other borrowers of the lender through a supply network by using a unique database of inter-firm relationships and bank-firm relationships. This effect is significant statistically and economically after controlling for the bank-firm or inter-firm relationship characteristics and other firm characteristics. This finding provides evidence that banks make use of private information observed from their borrowers' network in their loan pricing.Length: 32 pages Creation-Date: 2017-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.E1703_ogura-.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1703 Classification-JEL: G21, L14 Keywords: inter-firm network, loan pricing, information production, relationship banking Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1703 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Daichi Shimamoto Author-Name-First: Daichi Author-Name-Last: Shimamoto Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda Institute of Political Economy, Waseda University Author-Email: d.shimamoto0407@gmail.com Author-Name: Yasuyuki Todo Author-Name-First: Yasuyuki Author-Name-Last: Todo Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: yastodo@waseda.jp Author-Name: Yu Ri Kim Author-Name-First: Yu Ri Author-Name-Last: Kim Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University and Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo Author-Email: yuri.kim73@gmail.com Author-Name: Petr Matous Author-Name-First: Petr Author-Name-Last: Matous Author-Workplace-Name: School of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo and Complex Systems Research Group, Faculty of Engineering and IT, The University of Sydney Author-Email: petr.matous@sydney.edu.au Title: Identifying and Decomposing Peer Effects on Decision-Making Using a Randomized Controlled Trial Abstract: This paper investigates peer effects on firm managers' decisions. We invited 131 randomly selected firm representatives to three one-day seminars on export promotion. We found that peers' invitation in the seminars has a positive effect on firms' participation. We distinguish between peers' invitation on the same day and other days, finding that the former has a positive effect while the latter has no significant effect. These results imply that peer effects arise mostly through a reduction of psychological cost of participation. Our results suggest that multiple equilibria in the share of participants within each network of firms may emerge.Length: 32 pages Creation-Date: 2017-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.E1704.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1704 Classification-JEL: C93, D22 Keywords: peer effects, social networks, information confirmation, free riding, randomized controlled trials Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1704 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: masashige.hamano@gmail.com Author-Name: Wessel N. Vermeulen Author-Name-First: Wessel Author-Name-Last: Vermeulen Author-Workplace-Name: Newcastle University London Author-Email: wessel.vermeulen@newcastle.ac.uk Title: Adapting to within-country export barriers: Evidence from the Japan 2011 Tsunami Abstract: How do exports respond to changes in domestic trade costs? In particular how strongly are exports from one port affected by changes in the cost of exporting at neighbouring ports? To answer these questions we extend the standard trade model with heterogeneous firms to have a multiple port structure where exporting is subject to port specific local transportation costs and port specific fixed export costs as well as international bilateral trade costs. We derive a gravity equation with multiple ports and show that gravity distortion due to firm heterogeneity is conditional on port comparative advantage and resulting substitution of export across differentiated ports. We present evidence of the substitution effect using the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and following tsunami. This event allows us to measure the response of trade on ports not directly affected by the disaster. We detect a substitution effect for aggregate trade as well as differentiation at the sectoral level and by destination. Length: 48 pages Creation-Date: 2017-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.E1706.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1706 Classification-JEL: F14, O18, R1Keywords: firm heterogeneity, extensive margins, transportation costs, fixed costs Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1706 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hiroki Ozono Author-Name-First: Hiroki Author-Name-Last: Ozono Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Law, Economics and Humanities, Kagoshima University Author-Email: Author-Name: Yoshio Kamijo Author-Name-First: Yoshio Author-Name-Last: Kamijo Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology Author-Email: Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Does the order of punishment matter? A comparison of pool punishment systems Abstract: Second-order free riders, who do not owe punishment cost to first-order free riders in public goods games, lead to low cooperation. Previous studies suggest that for stable cooperation, it is critical to have a pool punishment system with second-order punishment, which gathers resources from group members and punishes second-order free riders as well as first-order free riders. In this study, we focus on the priority of punishment. We hypothesize that the pool punishment system that prioritizes second-order punishment is more likely to achieve cooperation than the system that prioritizes first-order punishment, because the former is more likely to obtain sufficient punishment resources. In the experiments, we compare four pool punishment systems: 1To2 (first-order punishment to second-order punishment), 2To1 (second-order punishment to first-order punishment), 1ONLY (first-order punishment only), and 2ONLY (second-order punishment only). We find that the 2To1 and 2ONLY systems can receive more support than the 1To2 and 1ONLY systems and only the 2To1 system can achieve high cooperation. However, the effect of priority of second-order punishment is observed only when the punishment ratio is low (Experiment 1), not high (Experiment 2), in which the punishment resource is relatively abundant. Length: 24 pages Creation-Date: 2017-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2017/07/No.E1707.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1707 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Cooperation, Pool punishment, Second-order free rider, Public goods, Social dilemma Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1707 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yushi Kunugi Author-Name-First: Yushi Author-Name-Last: Kunugi Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, and Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University Author-Email: kunugi.yu@gmail.com Author-Name: Toshi H. Arimura Author-Name-First: Toshi Author-Name-Last: Arimura Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, and Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University Author-Email: toshi.arimura@gmail.com Author-Name: Kazuyuki Iwata Author-Name-First: Kazuyuki Author-Name-Last: Iwata Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, Matsuyama University Author-Email: iwata.kazuyu@gmail.com Author-Name: Eiji Komatsu Author-Name-First: Eiji Author-Name-Last: Komatsu Author-Workplace-Name: Laboratory for Ecological Reconstruction Science Author-Email: komatsu@lercs.co.jp Author-Name: Yoshie Hirayama Author-Name-First: Yoshie Author-Name-Last: Hirayama Author-Workplace-Name: Laboratory for Ecological Reconstruction Science Author-Email: yhirayama@lercs.co.jp Title: Cost-efficient strategy for reducing particulate matter 2.5 in the Tokyo Metropolitan area:An integrated approach with aerosol and economic models Abstract: Concentrations of particulate matter 2.5 (PM 2.5) are high in the Tokyo metropolitan area, even though concentrations of PM10 have dropped dramatically since the implementation of the NOx-PM Act. Currently, monitored concentration levels continue to exceed the designated ambient air quality standard set by the Japanese Ministry of the Environment. To our knowledge, no study has investigated a cost-efficient strategy to reduce PM 2.5 concentration levels in the Tokyo metropolitan area. This is the first study to examine a proper control strategy for Japan by developing an integrated model that includes both aerosol and economic models. The simulation results show that prefectures in the Tokyo metropolitan area cannot achieve the standards by relying on their own efforts to reduce PM 2.5. That is, prefectural governments in Tokyo metropolitan areas need to cooperate with prefectures outside of the area to improve their PM 2.5 concentration levels. Thus, we simulated policies under the assumption that emissions from other sources are reduced to evels such that the PM 2.5 concentration declines by approximately 18 µg/m3. We first simulated an efficient policy, i.e., the implementation of a pollution tax. We found that the total abatement cost to meet the air quality standard using the cost-efficient strategy is approximately 142.7 billion yen. We also simulated a policy in which we emphasize the equality of burden, i.e., each prefecture's government reduces emissions by the same proportion. In this scenario, the total cost of the strategy that maintains high equality among prefectures is approximately 416.3 billion yen. Thus, when authorities focus on other criteria such as equality, cost-efficiency deteriorates greatly. Therefore, to attain cleaner air, it is important that authorities make informed decisions when selecting a strategy.Length: 44 pages Creation-Date: 2017-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2017/07/No.E1709.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1709 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Particulate matter 2.5, cost-efficiency, equality, control strategy, pollution tax Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1709 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Susumu Annaka Author-Name-First: Susumu Author-Name-Last: Annaka Author-Workplace-Name: Ph.D. Candidate of Political Science in the Graduate School of Political Science at Waseda University Author-Email: profound@moegi.waseda.jp Author-Name: Masaaki Higashijima Author-Name-First: Masaaki Author-Name-Last: Higashijima Author-Workplace-Name: Political Science in the Graduate School of Information Sciences at Tohoku University Author-Email: masaaki.higashijima.d8@tohoku.ac.jp Title: Democratization and Human Development Abstract: Comparativists have long debated whether democracy advances human development. Recent studies suggest that the stock of democracy is more important than the current level of democracy to predict infant mortality rates, an often-used measure of human welfare. The “stock” argument, however, does not explore whether a democratic regime change at a point in time affects people's welfare thereafter. Moreover, the extant crossnational work encounters three problems in panel regression analysis: They do not correct for historical trends in infant mortality and the number of democracies, employ country-fixed effects on data with a short time-horizon mostly starting from 1960, and do not deal with possible endogeneity between democracy and human development. Using a newly collected panel data of infant mortality covering from 1800 to 2015, we revisit this debate. Applying the Error Correction Models (ECM) with Instrumental Variables (IV) estimation, we find that democratization has only a long-run effect on reducing infant mortality. Length: 35 pages Creation-Date: 2017-08 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.E1712.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1712 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1712 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Amihai Glazer Author-Name-First: Amihai Author-Name-Last: Glazer Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of California, Irvine Author-Email: Author-Name: Hideki Konishi Author-Name-First: Hideki Author-Name-Last: Konishi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Why High-level Executives Earn Less in the Government Than in the Private Sector Abstract: Though governmental officials often have far greater responsibilities and make far more consequential decisions than do CEOs of private firms, government officials often earn far less. We offer explanations for the differences, considering Nash bargaining with the head of a governmental agency or with the CEO of a private firm. In the benchmark case, with a governmental agency providing consumer surplus in addition to profits, a governmental official earns more than a private CEO. But if for a governmental agency one official sets price and a different official negotiates pay, then under some conditions the head of a governmental agency will be paid less than the head of a for-profit firm. And in the plausible case where a governmental agency produces a non-excludable public good, and the agency is financed by a distortionary tax, then even if the consumer surplus generated at the governmental agency is greater than the profits of a for-profit firm, the head of the governmental agency may be paid less.Length: 25 pages Creation-Date: 2017-08 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.E1713.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1713 Classification-JEL: D23, H11, J31, J45 Keywords: CEO pay, governmental officials, Nash bargaining, tax distortions, structure-induced equilibrium Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1713 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shotaro Shiba Author-Name-First: Shotaro Author-Name-Last: Shiba Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Does Time Inconsistency Differ between Gain and Loss? An Intra-Personal Comparison Using a Non-Parametric Designed Experimen Abstract: Several studies in the time preference literature have found time inconsistencies (TIs) in both the gain and loss domain. However, their relationship within the same person remains unclear: that is, does an individual who demonstrates TI for gain outcomes also do so for loss? To investigate this relationship, we conducted a nonparametric designed experiment that requires only standard axioms and no parametric specification for people's preferences. In the experiment, we allowed the measurement of TI to depend on character alternatives—such dependency has emerged as a crucial point in recent TI discussions. With these settings, we directly observed TI for gain and loss and found a so-called “future effect” for both outcomes. We also found a positive correlation between the degrees of TI for gain and loss within the same person, irrespective of character alternatives. In addition, in most cases, we found no significant differences between the degrees of TI for gain and loss. These results remained robust even when using another TI measurement. Our findings suggest that people's TI regarding gain and loss may not differ and the source of TI among individuals is common between their preference for gain and loss.Length: 28 pages Creation-Date: 2017-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.E1714.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1714 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1714 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shigeharu Okajima Author-Name-First: Shigeharu Author-Name-Last: Okajima Author-Workplace-Name: Kobe University Author-Email: shigeharu.okajima@gmail.com Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Hiroko Okajima Author-Name-First: Hiroko Author-Name-Last: Okajima Author-Workplace-Name: Towson University Author-Email: Author-Name: Nobuyuki Uto Author-Name-First: Nobuyuki Author-Name-Last: Uto Author-Workplace-Name: Author-Email: Title: Can group giving boost contribution? Effects of different subsidy schemes in a laboratory experiment Abstract: Charitable giving is sometimes made collectively by a group of people. This form of philanthropy, called group giving, is gaining popularity in practice, but little has been studied in literature. Accordingly, a laboratory experiment is conducted to examine how group giving reacts to different rebate subsidies that are awarded based on the collective giving level of a group. The results show that group giving is particulary effective in boosting a giving rate in a stepwise rebate scheme. A stepwise rebate seems to encourage major contributors to contribute even more so that a rebate threshold is crossed for sure. In contrast, group giving slightly drives down a giving rate in a proportional rebate scheme. These results provide useful information for charitable organizations to develop a new intervention to increase charitable giving. This study also supplements the existing literature by providing empirical results on group giving. Length: 21 pages Creation-Date: 2017-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.E1715.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1715 Classification-JEL: C91, C91, D91, Q48 Keywords: donation, laboratory experiment, group behavior, rebate scheme, electricity Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1715 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masato Shizume Author-Name-First: Masato Author-Name-Last: Shizume Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: Title: A History of the Bank of Japan, 1882-2016 Abstract: Length: 30 pages Creation-Date: 2017-10 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.E1719.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1719 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1719 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Akira Inoue Author-Name-First: Akira Author-Name-Last: Inoue Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Advanced Social and International Studies, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, University of Tokyo Author-Email: inoue@wala.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: skazumi1961@gmail.com Author-Name: Daisuke Udagawa Author-Name-First: Daisuke Author-Name-Last: Udagawa Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, Hannan University Author-Email: udagawa.daisuke@gmail.com Author-Name: Yoshiki Wakamatsu Author-Name-First: Yoshiki Author-Name-Last: Wakamatsu Author-Workplace-Name: Gakushuin University Law School Author-Email: nappa10292001@gmail.com Title: Luck Egalitarianism, Relational Egalitarianism, and the Harshness Objection: Experimental Approach Abstract: Elizabeth Anderson accused luck egalitarianism of having harshness implications when it is adopted as a redistributive policy. Anderson supported democratic or relational egalitarianism that requires the satisfaction of basic capabilities for democratic relationships among citizens, regardless of their responsibility for their current positions. Subsequently, there has been a debate over luck egalitarianism and relational egalitarianism; however, these positions are fairly close by virtue of their reliance on our intuitions, a fact that Anderson's original arguments echo. This paper thus examines Anderson's arguments against luck egalitarianism and for democratic egalitarianism using an online survey method. The results show that, first, for ordinary people, the luck consideration is as important as the basic capabilities consideration. This finding runs contrary to Anderson's claim. Second, while real people consider the degree of compensation through the factors of causality (the degree of chosen results) and responsibility (the degree of responsibility for the consequences), the lack of basic capabilities directs them to determine how much victims of bad luck should be compensated. This suggests that the effort to reconcile luck egalitarianism and relational egalitarianism is on the right track. These findings are relevant to the recent shift of egalitarian philosophy. Length: 30 pages Creation-Date: 2017-10 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.E1720.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1720 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1720 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hideki Konishi Author-Name-First: Hideki Author-Name-Last: Konishi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: h.konishi@waseda.jp Author-Name: Naomi Miyazato Author-Name-First: Naomi Author-Name-Last: Miyazato Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Nihon University Author-Email: miyazato.naomi@nihon-u.ac.jp Title: Distributive Impacts of Social Protection Systems in OECD Countries: Public-Private Mix and Hidden Welfare States Abstract: Modern welfare states provide social protection benefits not only directly through the public sector but also through the private sector in conjunction with governmental engagement, e.g., by mandating employment-based provisions and giving tax breaks for voluntary transactions. Countries with sufficient social support provided largely via the private sector are called hidden welfare states. Integrating such private social expenditures, this paper estimates the overall distributive impacts of social protection systems in OECD countries, using the SOCX data base. Taking into account measurement biases in income inequality indices and reverse causality stemming from policy formation decisions, it found that the overall distributive impact decreases as the provision of social support relies more on the private sector and has no statistical difference from zero in some hidden welfare states. Length: 42 pages Creation-Date: 2018-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.E1804.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1804 Classification-JEL: H53, I38, P51 Keywords: Private social expenditure, Hidden welfare state, Income redistribution, Dynamic panel model Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1804 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takaaki Abe Author-Name-First: Takaaki Author-Name-Last: Abe Author-Workplace-Name: JSPS Research Fellow. Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University. Author-Email: takatomo3639@asagi.waseda.jp Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University. Author-Email: funaki@waseda.jp Title: The Unbinding Core for Coalitional Form Games Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a new concept of core by extending the definition of deviation. The traditional definition of deviation allows for players to deviate if some profitable allocation exists after their deviation, while our new definition requires that all possible allocations are profitable. Hence, our core becomes a superset of the traditional core. We examine some properties that our new core satisfies and provide a sufficient condition for being nonempty. Moreover, we apply Ray's (1989) credibility to our core. Length: 21 pages Creation-Date: 2018-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2014/05/No.E1805.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1805 Classification-JEL: C71 Keywords: cooperative game, core, credibility, deviation Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1805 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shotaro Shiba Author-Name-First: Shotaro Author-Name-Last: Shiba Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University. Author-Email: sibasyou2001@gmail.com Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University. Author-Email: Title: Does time inconsistency differ between gain and loss? An intra-personal comparison using a non-parametric elicitation method (A revised version) Abstract: Several studies in the time preference literature have found time inconsistency (TI) of both gain and loss preferences. However, the relationship between the two within the same person remains unclear; that is, does an individual who demonstrates TI forgain outcomes do so for loss as well? This paper reports the individual's TI for both gain and loss in a laboratory setting. To compare individuals' TI for gain and loss precisely, we allowed the experiment to test for so-called future bias, which has been a focus area in recent TI literature. Further, we measured the level of TI rather than only identifying whether TI was present. We used a non-parametric elicitation method to avoid any specification error in the analysis. Based on this setting, we could examine the intra-personal relationship of TI for gain and loss–whether the same person shows similar TI of gain preference and TI of loss preference. Our findings are as follows: First, we found future bias in preference for not only gain but also loss, and confirmed that this tendency was consistent with previous findings on preference for gain. Second, such TI tended to have a positive relationship at the individual level for both gain and loss. Participants who exhibited TI when they chose gain tended to exhibit similar TI when they chose loss. These results suggest that people's perception of time is important in time preference; how far they perceive the future in their mind may play a crucial role in TI. Length: 16 pages Creation-Date: 2018-08 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2018/08/No.E1807.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1807 Classification-JEL: Keywords: time inconsistency, sign effect, non-parametric elicitation, future bias, intra-personal comparison Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1807 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takaaki Abe Author-Name-First: Takaaki Author-Name-Last: Abe Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Shuige Liu Author-Name-First: Shuige Author-Name-Last: Liu Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Monotonic Core Allocation Paths for Assignment Games Abstract: We introduce a modification of Sprumont [9]'s population monotonic allocation scheme (PMAS), called monotonic core allocation path (MCAP) for assignment games, which is a sequence of allocations along an order on the set of players satisfying that (1) each allocation is in the core of the subgame of the corresponding players at that step, and (2) the payoffs for each player are non-decreasing through the sequence. The notion of MCAP preserves the population monotonicity of PMAS while avoids the difficulty that PMAS does not exist in many market games. We show that a MCAP exists for every assignment game. The terminals of MCAP form a re nement of the core. We also show that the terminals of MCAP coincide with the extreme core allocations in two subclasses of assignment games:gloves games and Bohm-Bawerk games. The strong connection of MCAP with extreme core allocations suggests some con ict between the stability of a coalition formation process and the fairness of the resulting outcomes. Length: 14 pages Creation-Date: 2018-11 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2018/11/No.E1808.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1808 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Allocation path; Assignment game; Core; Population monotonicity Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1808 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takaaki Abe Author-Name-First: Takaaki Author-Name-Last: Abe Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: takatomo3639@asagi.waseda.jp Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: funaki@waseda.jp Title: The Projective Core of Symmetric Games with Externalities Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to analyze stable distributions and coalition structures in certain economic situations. We consider the projective core as the most myopic core of the cores defined for games with externalities. Although the core is often defined only for the grand coalition, we define the projective core for each coalition structure and apply it to some economic models such as the public goods game, the Cournot oligopoly, and the common pool resource game. Moreover, we formulate the Bertrand oligopoly as a game with externalities. We argue that symmetry is a common property of these models in terms of the partition function. We offer some general results that hold for all symmetric games with externalities and discuss the implications of the economic models. We also provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the projective core of the models to be nonempty. Length: 23 pages Creation-Date: 2018-11 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2018/11/No.E1809.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1809 Classification-JEL: C71 Keywords: Core; Externalities; Oligopoly; Public goods Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1809 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yuzuka Kashiwagi Author-Name-First: Yuzuka Author-Name-Last: Kashiwagi Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: yuzu-26@akane.waseda.jp Author-Name: Petr Matous Author-Name-First: Petr Author-Name-Last: Matous Author-Workplace-Name: Complex Systems Research Group, Faculty of Engineering and IT, the University of Sydney. Author-Email: petr.matous@sydney.edu.au) Author-Name: Yasuyuki Todo Author-Name-First: Yasuyuki Author-Name-Last: Todo Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, and Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry Author-Email: yastodo@waseda.jp Title: International propagation of economic shocks through global supply chains Abstract: This study examines whether and how economic shocks by natural disasters propagate through global supply chains to regions not directly hit by disasters. Although such propagation within a country has been studied, this study contributes to the literature by incorporating international propagation. Using firm-level data for more than 100,000 major firms in the world that include information on supply-chain ties among them, we find evidence of intra-national propagation as found in the literature but no international propagation. We further investigate possible mechanisms, finding that internationalized firms' ability to substitute for damaged partners most likely explains the absence of international propagation. Length: 40 pages Creation-Date: 2018-11 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2018/11/No.E1810.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1810 Classification-JEL: E32, F14, L14, Q54 Keywords: Global supply chains; Propagation of shocks; Spillover; Natural disasters Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1810 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kou Maeda Author-Name-First: Kou Author-Name-Last: Maeda Author-Workplace-Name: Investment Strategy Group, Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co., Ltd Author-Email: kou.maeda@tmnf.jp Author-Name: Junnosuke Shino Author-Name-First: Junnosuke Author-Name-Last: Shino Author-Workplace-Name: School of International Liberal Studies,Waseda University Author-Email: junnosuke.shino@waseda.jp Title: Stock Lending Market and the BOJ's ETF purchasing program: Micro-Evidence from ETF Balance Sheet Data and Equity Repo Trading Data Abstract: The ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) purchasing program currently implemented by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has, in contrast to other asset purchasing programs, a unique characteristic: stocks that constitute ETFs held by the BOJ can be lent freely by ETF managers. This study (1) examines whether the ETF purchasing program actually causes an expansion of the stock lending market, and (2) identifies the determinants of stock lending (or equivalently equity repo trading). We focus on two different micro-datasets of stock lending: ETF balance sheet data released by asset management companies and equity repo trading data released by the Japan Securities Dealers Association. Our empirical analysis of these datasets shows that the expansion of the ETF purchasing program has caused the substantial growth of stock lending markets. Panel regression results suggest that the size of equity repo trading tends to be larger for stocks with (a) lower free-float rates, (b) smaller market values (both are proxies for market liquidity), (c) higher valuations such as PBR, and (d) higher volatility. These results also imply that the program has contributed significantly to activating stock lending trades at the times of the bank's decisions to increase the target amounts of purchases of the program, as well as to influencing the sensitivities of the trades to market liquidity and valuations. Length: 35 pages Creation-Date: 2019-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/01/No.E1811.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1811 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Stock lending; ETF purchasing program; Bank of Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1811 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takaaki Abe Author-Name-First: Takaaki Author-Name-Last: Abe Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: takatomo3639@asagi.waseda.jp Title: Stable Coalition Structures: Characterizations and Applications of Hart and Kurz's Four Stability Concepts Abstract: Hart and Kurz (1983) introduced four stability concepts, called α-, β-, γ-, and δ-stability. In contrast to the intensive studies on their conceptual aspects, these notions have rarely been adopted to analyze stable coalition structures in an application because the definitions consist of multiple intermediate steps. The purpose of this paper is to solve these practical difficulties. We provide an explicit form for each of the four stability concepts and reformulate each concept without using any intermediate steps. Moreover, we offer some sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of stable coalition structures and the inclusion relation among the four stability notions. In addition, we propose a new approach to characterize the notions of stability. An application of our results to Cournot oligopoly is also provided. Length: 34 pages Creation-Date: 2019-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/01/No.E1812.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1812 Classification-JEL: C71 Keywords: coalition formation; coalition structure; Cournot oligopoly; stability Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1812 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hajime Tomura Author-Name-First: Hajime Author-Name-Last: Tomura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: tomura.hajime@gmail.com Title: On Separation between Payment and Saving Instruments Abstract: This paper presents a three-period model to analyze why central-bank notes, i.e., payment instruments, and bank deposits, i.e., saving instruments, must be separated from each other as is the case in the modern banking system. The model shows that credit creation by note-issuing commercial banks improves risk sharing in the economy, because private bank notes can serve as payment instruments backed by a diversified pool of commercial bills issued by payers. If there are sunk costs of production, however, this characteristic of private bank notes can cause a self-fulfilling mass refusal of private bank notes by payees. Commercial banks can reduce the amount of reserves necessary to prevent such a bank-note run if they set up a conduit that issues only payment instruments, which corresponds to the central bank. The model replicates short-term re-discounting of commercial bills by the central bank as the optimal policy endogenously. Length: 49 pages Creation-Date: 2019-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/01/No.E1813.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1813 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Bank notes; Credit creation; Trade credit; Central bank; Discount window; Bank run Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1813 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yoshiki Wakamatsu Author-Name-First: Yoshiki Author-Name-Last: Wakamatsu Author-Workplace-Name: Gakushuin University Author-Email: Author-Name: Koichi Suga Author-Name-First: Koichi Author-Name-Last: Suga Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: Title: On the Independence of the Event in the Context of Intergenerational Justice Abstract: How should we, the present generation deal with the interests and harms of the future generations? Considering remoteness in time has, in itself, "no more significance than remoteness in space" (Parfit 1984:357), what Cass Sunstein calls "The Principle of Intergenerational Neutrality"(PIN) will provide a good starting point. There is an extensive debate on whether using the social discount rate is against PIN. However using the social discount rate is not the only unfair way of dealing with the interests of the future generation. Even without making any use of the social discount rate, the present generation would behave in an unfair way, in some cases, by assuming the independence of the event, which is the standard assumption in the probability theory. In this paper, we will show how this happens by considering two lotteries, the freedom lottery and the survival lottery. Before revealing the results, we must address two perplexing problems concerning future generations. First, who are the people who comprises the future? The identities of the future generations, as D. Parfit (1984) suggests, will change depending upon the policies we, the present generations, choose (Non-Identity Problem). Second, what are the preferences of the future generations? Because they have not formed any yet, we cannot make use of their preferences as a basis for our decision (Non-Preference Problem). To determine their identity, we treat future generations not as individuals but as species or groups. Instead of individual preferences, we will use freedom and survival as the benchmark of interests for the species. We will then examine two kinds of lotteries: the freedom lottery and the survival lottery. In these lotteries, the independence of the event does not hold, that is, the probabilities of becoming unfree or being extinguished greatly vary from generation to generation. The later a generation's turn to draw the lot, the higher the probability of becoming unfree or extinguished. As this disparity of these probabilities among generations shows, we, as the present generation that draws the lot first and is in the most advantageous position, have a special responsibility toward future generations. Length: 14 pages Creation-Date: 2019-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/04/WP_E1901.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1901 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1901 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mamoru Kaneko Author-Name-First: Mamoru Author-Name-Last: Kaneko Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: mkanekoepi@waseda.jp Title: Expected Utility Theory with Probability Grids and Preference Formation Abstract: We reformulate expected utility theory, from the viewpoint of bounded rationality, by introducing probability grids and a cognitive bound; we restrict permissible probabilities only to decimal (`-ary in general) fractions of Önite depths up to a given cognitive bound. We distinguish between measurements of utilities from pure alternatives and their extensions to lotteries involving more risks. Our theory is constructive, from the viewpoint of the decision maker. When a cognitive bound is small, the preference relation involves many incomparabilities, but these diminish as the cognitive bound is is relaxed. Similarly, the EU hypothesis would hold more for a weaker cognitive bound. The main part of the paper is a study of preferences including incomparabilities in cases with Önite cogntive bounds; we give representation theorems in terms of a 2-dimensional vector-valued utility functions. We exemplify the theory with one experimental result reported by Kahneman-Tversky. Length: 37 pages Creation-Date: 2019-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/04/WP_E1902.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1902 Classification-JEL: C72, C79, C91 Keywords: Expected Utility; Measurement of Utility; Bounded Rationality; Probability Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1902 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: funaki@waseda.jp Author-Name: Junnosuke Shino Author-Name-First: Junnosuke Author-Name-Last: Shino Author-Workplace-Name: School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University Author-Email: junnosuke.shino@waseda.jp Author-Name: Nobuyuki Uto Author-Name-First: Nobuyuki Author-Name-Last: Uto Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics and Management, Hokuriku University Author-Email: nobuyuki.uto@gmail.com Title: Vulnerability of Fixed-Rate Funds-Supplying Operations to Overbidding: An Experimental Approach Abstract: This paper experimentally investigates overbidding in the fixed-rate funds-supplying operations conducted by central banks. One motivation for this is that while the European Central Bank had experienced severe overbidding in the conduct of its fixed-rate operations, no comparable behavior has been observed for the Bank of Japan. Existing theoretical analyses argue that this is because the currently accommodative financial environment in Japan has made bidders' objective functions locally satiated, and this contributes to the avoidance of overbidding. To investigate this further, we conduct an experiment with fixedrate operations, the results of which are as follows. When participants' initial demands are sufficiently small, they simply play the unique Nash equilibrium strategy to bid their true demand. Further, as demand increases and there is no satiation in their objective functions, participants tend to overbid. However, even as demand becomes larger, an explosion of bids does not arise if the objective functions are sufficiently satiated. We also estimate the subject bid functions from the experimental data affected by the degree of satiation and reveal that a simple calibration points to the vulnerability of fixed-rate operations to overbidding, even when satiation is preserved. Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2019-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/04/WP_E1903.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1903 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Fixed-rate funds-supplying operations; Overbidding; Experiments Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1903 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takaaki Abe Author-Name-First: Takaaki Author-Name-Last: Abe Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: takatomo3639@asagi.waseda.jp Title: Axiomatizations of Coalition Aggregation Functions Abstract: We axiomatize Hart and Kurz's (1983) two coalition aggregation functions known as the γfunction and the δ-function. A coalition aggregation function is a mapping that assigns a partition to each coalition profile, where a coalition profile is a vector of coalitions selected by all players. Through our axiomatization results, we observe that neither the γ-function nor the δ-function satisfies monotonicity. We propose a monotonic function and axiomatically characterize it. An impossibility result on monotonicity is also provided. Length: 16 pages Creation-Date: 2019-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/04/WP_E1904.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1904 Classification-JEL: C71 Keywords: axiomatization; coalition formation; coalition structure; monotonicity Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1904 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hajime Tomura Author-Name-First: Hajime Author-Name-Last: Tomura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: tomura.hajime@gmail.com Title: Imperfect Contract Enforcement and Nominal Liabilities Abstract: This paper introduces the court's inability to discern different qualities of goods of the same kind into an overlapping generations model. This friction makes fiat money circulate not only as a means of payments for goods, but also as a means of liability repayments in an equilibrium. This result holds with or without dynamic inefficiency. In this equilibrium, a shortage of real money balances for liability repayments can cause underinvestment by borrowers, even if the money supply follows a Friedman rule. This problem can be resolved by an elastic money supply through an intraday discount window at a zero discount fee. In this case, supplying no fiat money overnight maximizes aggregate consumption in a monetary steady state in a dynamically efficient economy. This policy, however, can also lead to a self-fulfilling crunch of discount window lending if commercial banks intermediate the lending from the central bank with a collateral constraint, and if the discount window market is segregated. This equilibrium can be eliminated if the central bank is the monopolistic public issuer of fiat money that also acts as the lender of last resort. Length: 51 pages Creation-Date: 2019-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/05/WP_E1905.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1905 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Nominal contract; Discount window; Credit crunch; Lender of last resort; Payment system Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1905 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yasushi Asako Author-Name-First: Yasushi Author-Name-Last: Asako Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: yasushi.asako@waseda.jp Title: Strategic Ambiguity with Probabilistic Voting Abstract: Political parties and candidates usually prefer making ambiguous promises. This study identiÖes the conditions under which candidates choose ambiguous promises in equilibrium, given convex utility functions of voters. The results show that in a deterministic model, no equilibrium exists when voters have convex utility functions. However, in a probabilistic voting model, candidates make ambiguous promises in equilibrium when, (i) voters have convex utility functions, and (ii) the distribution of votersímost preferred policies is polarized. Length: 22 pages Creation-Date: 2019-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/05/WP_E1906.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1906 Classification-JEL: D71, D72 Keywords: elections; political ambiguity; public promise; campaign platform; probabilistic voting; polarization Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1906 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University, School of Political Science and Economics and CREA research fellow Author-Email: masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Title: International Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Firms Abstract: Little is known about the consequence of firm heterogeneity and its resulting reallocation effect on international consumption risk sharing. This paper explores international risk sharing in a theoretical model with firm heterogeneity and shows that firm heterogeneity changes the nature of international risk sharing, thus driving a wedge between relative consumption growth and real exchange rate fluctuations. A correlation is found to be conditional on the fluctuations in the number of product varieties and their qualities arising from the reallocation effect induced by heterogeneous firms; the conventional unconditional correlation can be thus biased. Using world trade data covering more than two decades, I note the existence of bias and find that the extent of international risk sharing is underestimated. The analysis indicates a larger welfare gain from international trade than we have been measuring. Length: 41 pages Creation-Date: 2019-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/06/E1907_Hamano.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1907 Classification-JEL: F12, F41, F43 Keywords: exchange rate; international risk sharing; product quality; firm heterogeneity Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1907 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kazuyuki Sasakura Author-Name-First: Kazuyuki Author-Name-Last: Sasakura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda Universi Author-Email: sasakura@waseda.jp Title: Calculating a Giffen Good Abstract: This paper provides a simple example of the utility function with two consumption goods which can be calculated by hand to produce a Giffen good. It is based on the theoretical result by Kubler, Selden, and Wei (2013). Using a model of portfolio selection with a risk-free asset and a risky asset, they showed that the risk-free asset becomes a Giffen good if the utility belongs to the HARA family. This paper investigates their result further in a usual microeconomic setting, and derives the conditions for one of the consumption goods to be a Giffen good from a broader perspective. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2019-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/06/E08_sasakura.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1908 Classification-JEL: D11, D01, G11 Keywords: HARA family; Decreasing relative risk aversion; Giffen good; Slutsky equation; Ratio effect Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1908 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hajime Tomura Author-Name-First: Hajime Author-Name-Last: Tomura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: ahtomura@waseda.jp Title: Elderly Care and Multiple Monies Abstract: This paper presents an overlapping generations model in which old generations require specific services from young generations due to idiosyncratic shocks. An example of such services is elderly care. The model shows that a two-money system in which fiat money for such services is separated from that for the other types of goods and services can replicate the resource allocation in a one-money system with a fair insurance. For this result, it is necessary to prohibit old generations from exchanging different types of fiat monies in the two-money system. The model implies that the introduction of fiat money for elderly care reduces the real value of government bonds outstanding in the country. Length: 15 pages Creation-Date: 2019-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/06/E09_tomura.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1909 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1909 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shin Kobayashi Author-Name-First: Shin Author-Name-Last: Kobayashi Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Shin.Kobayashi.67@gmail.com Author-Name: Takuya Arai Author-Name-First: Takuya Author-Name-Last: Arai Author-Workplace-Name: Mercer Japan Ltd. Author-Email: takuya.arai@mercer.com Title: A Characterization of Optimum Fee Schemes for Delegated Portfolio Management Abstract: We examine a moral hazard problem on delegated portfolio management. Focusing on amounts of assets under management (AUM), we investigate the existence of optimal fee schemes for asset owners. First, we present the solutions of the first and the second best problem. Next, under some additional restrictions, we characterize the solution of the second best problem. As a result, a kind of incentive fee (an incentive fee with upper bound) is shown to be the only optimum fee scheme. Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2019-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/06/E10finance.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1910 Classification-JEL: G19, G23 Keywords: Delegated portfolio management; Incentive fee scheme; Principalagent model; Alignment; Asset under management Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1910 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takaaki Abe Author-Name-First: Takaaki Author-Name-Last: Abe Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: takatomo3639@asagi.waseda.jp Title: Cartel formation in Cournot competition with asymmetric costs: A partition function approach Abstract: In this paper, we use a partition function form game to analyze cartel formation among firms in Cournot competition. We assume that a firm obtains a certain cost advantage that allows it to produce goods at a lower unit cost. We show that if the level of the cost advantage is “moderate”, then the firm with the cost advantage leads the cartel formation among the firms. Moreover, if the cost advantage satisfies another condition, then the formed cartel can also be stable in the sense of the core of a partition function form game. We also show that if the technology for the low-cost production can be copied, then the cost advantage may prevent a cartel from splitting. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2019-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/07/WP_J1911.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1911 Classification-JEL: C71, L13 Keywords: cartel formation; Cournot competition; partition function form game; stability Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1911 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hiroki Ozono Author-Name-First: Hiroki Author-Name-Last: Ozono Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Law, Economics and Humanities, Kagoshima University Author-Email: hiroki.ozono@gmail.com Author-Name: Yoshio Kamijo Author-Name-First: Yoshio Author-Name-Last: Kamijo Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology Author-Email: Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: The function of peer reward and punishment in localized society: We can only “Think locally, Act locally” Abstract: Many studies suggest that peer reward and punishment can sustain cooperation in social dilemmas because cooperators are effectively rewarded and non-cooperators are effectively punished within the group. However, as group size becomes larger, we inevitably face localization, in which a global group is divided into several localized groups. While benefits from cooperation are distributed to the global group, members can reward and punish only other members within the same localized group. In this situation, the global group and the local group are not always equal in terms of welfare; situation can arise in which cooperation is beneficial for the global group but not for the local group. We predict that in such a locally inefficient situation, peer reward and punishment cannot function to sustain global cooperation, and high cooperation cannot be achieved. We conducted an experiment in which 16 group members played a public goods game with peer reward and punishment. We manipulated the range of peer reward and punishment (only local members/all members) and payoff structure (locally efficient/locally inefficient). We found that high cooperation was not achieved and that peer reward and punishment did not function when, and only when, the group was divided into localized groups and the payoff structure was locally inefficient. This finding suggests that the function of peer reward and punishment is limited to relatively small societies, and we humans can only “think locally, act locally.” Length: 32 pages Creation-Date: 2019-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/07/WP_J1912.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1912 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Public goods; Reward; Punishment; Localization; Cooperation Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1912 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Pablo Guillen Author-Name-First: Pablo Author-Name-Last: Guillen Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, The University of Sydney Author-Email: pablo.guillen@sydney.edu.au Author-Name: Róbert F. Veszteg Author-Name-First: Róbert Author-Name-Last: Veszteg Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economic, Waseda University Author-Email: rveszteg@waseda.jp Title: Strategy-proofness in experimental matching markets Abstract: We introduce two novel matching mechanisms, Reverse Top Trading Cycles (RTTC) and Reverse Deferred Acceptance (RDA), with the purpose of challenging the idea that the theoretical property of strategy-proofness induces high rates of truth-telling in economic experiments. RTTC and RDA are identical to the celebrated Top Trading Cycles (TTC) and Deferred Acceptance (DA) mechanisms, respectively, in all their theoretical properties except that their dominant-strategy equilibrium is to report one's preferences in the order opposite to the way they were induced. With the focal truthtelling strategy being out of equilibrium, we are able to perform a clear measurement of how much of the truth-telling reported for strategy-proof mechanisms is compatible with rational behavior and how much of it is caused by confused decision-makers following a default (very focal) strategy without understanding the structure of the game. In a school-allocation setting, we find that roughly half of the observed truth-telling under TTC and DA is the result of na¨ıve (non-strategic) behavior. Only 13-29% of participants' actions in RTTC and RDA are compatible with rational behavior. Further than that, by looking at the responses of those seemingly rational participants in control tasks, it becomes clear that even them lack a basic understanding of the game incentives. We argue that the use of a default option, confusion and other behavioral biases account for the vast majority of truthful play in both TTC and DA in laboratory experiments. Length: 34 pages Creation-Date: 2019-08 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/09/WP_E1913.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1913 Classification-JEL: C78, D47, C91 Keywords: matching; strategy-proofness; truth-telling; focal point; rationality; laboratory experiment; school choice; revelation principle Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1913 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Cheolmin Kang Author-Name-First: Cheolmin Author-Name-Last: Kang Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: kang@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Name: Akira Kawamura Author-Name-First: Akira Author-Name-Last: Kawamura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: akawamura@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: h.noguchi@waseda.jp Title: Does Free Healthcare Affect Children's Healthcare Use and Outcomes? Abstract: We investigate the extent to which the subsidy for children's healthcare in Japan affects children's healthcare use and outcomes using multiple nationally representative data sources. The subsidy, which made children's healthcare services essentially free for patients, was introduced and expanded to preschoolage children in the 1990s. We use a difference-in-differences framework by exploiting unique variations in subsidy status, as the introduction timing and age of eligibility differ across municipalities. We find that the subsidy significantly increased the use of outpatient care measured by visit intervals, the number of repeat patients, and monthly spending. However, we find little evidence on the overall use of inpatient care, while we observe a significant increase in the length of stay only for infants under the age of one who undergo surgery. Further, we find that the subsidy significantly improves children's subjective health (i.e., the probability of having symptoms, such as fever, cough, and nasal discharge, as measured by parents). However, we find little evidence regarding its effect on overall objective health (i.e., cured outcomes, as evaluated by a physician at discharge, and the mortality rate), while we observe significant improvements in these objective health outcomes only for infants under the age of one. The subsidy may significantly contributes to reducing the mortality rate for infants under the age of one by 0.79 per 1,000 individuals. In summary, this study indicates that free healthcare for children improves their access to healthcare as well as health outcomes, thus prioritizing this investment as part of national healthcare plans. Length: 74 pages Creation-Date: 2019-08 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/08/WP_E1914.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1914 Classification-JEL: I18, I11, I12 Keywords: children's healthcare subsidy; child-care cost-sharing; children's healthcare utilization; subjective symptoms; child mortality; Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1914 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Taro Shinoda Author-Name-First: Taro Author-Name-Last: Shinoda Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: labatt_0526@ruri.waseda.jp Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Unstructured Bargaining Experiment on Three-person Cooperative Games Abstract: In the cooperative game theory, we study only how to distribute payoffs by assuming that the grand coalition is formed. However, in real bargaining situation, the payoff distribution is considered with the coalition formation simultaneously. The players can make not only the grand coalition but also smaller coalitions. Also, they have to reach an agreement on just one payoff distribution. In order to know what happens in this situation, we design and run a laboratory experiment. As experimental results, we find the following things. First, the grand coalition is more likely to be formed when the core is non-empty than empty. Availability of the chat window is also positively correlated with formation of the grand coalition. Second, the payoff distribution the subjects agree with is depending on their power in bargaining. Unlike the others' bargaining experiment, the equal division is not very frequently adopted. Length: 16 pages Creation-Date: 2019-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/09/WP_E1915.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1915 Classification-JEL: C71, C92 Keywords: laboratory experiment; cooperative game; coalition formation; payoff distribution; bargaining Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1915 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Naonari Yajima Author-Name-First: Naonari Author-Name-Last: Yajima Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda INstitute of Political EConomy, Waseda University Author-Email: nao.yajima@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Name: Toshi H. Arimura Author-Name-First: Toshi Author-Name-Last: Arimura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Workplace-Name: Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Effectiveness of Multiple-Policy Instruments: Evidence from the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Policy in Japan Abstract: “Management-based regulation” has no tangible incentives and such regulations may not be effective. Therefore, a mixed policy that uses both “management-based regulation” and with some clear incentives may be effective and necessary. In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of combination of “management-based regulation”, some economic incentives and/or information provision on climate change actions. We focus on the “Emissions Reduction Program” (ERP) in Japan, which is one of “management-based regulation”, aiming to promote large facilities reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using the prefecture-industry level aggregated data, we find that information provision, reward for good practices and designation of responsible department for climate change has positive impacts on GHG emissions reduction under ERP. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2019-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/09/WP_E1916.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1916 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Management-based regulation; Provincial-level policy; Greenhouse gas reduction Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1916 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ryo Takahashi Author-Name-First: Ryo Author-Name-Last: Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: ryo@waseda.jp Title: How to stimulate environmentally friendly consumption: Evidence from a nationwide social experiment to promote eco-friendly coffee Abstract: We investigate the effect of information provision about environmentally friendly coffee on consumers' purchasing behaviors. We use a dataset from a nationwide social experiment in Japan involving over 10,000 vending machines serving brewed coffee. We also provide empirical insights into the mechanisms for stimulating eco-friendly consumption. Our results demonstrate that informing consumers about the product's eco-friendliness significantly increases eco-friendly coffee sales (+7%) only in social spaces (e.g., office buildings) and not in non-social spaces (e.g., shopping malls). Consumers in social spaces might be motivated to purchase eco-friendly coffee to build a “green” reputation among community members after receiving such information. Length: 63 pages Creation-Date: 2019-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/09/WP_E1917.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1917 Classification-JEL: Q13, O13, G14, M31, C93 Keywords: information provision; social experiment; sustainability labels; coffee certification;, green reputation Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1917 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takaaki Abe Author-Name-First: Takaaki Author-Name-Last: Abe Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: takatomo3639@asagi.waseda.jp Title: Buck-passing Dumping in a Pure Exchange Game of Bads Abstract: We study stable strategy profiles in a pure exchange game of bads, where each player dumps his/her bads such as garbage onto someone else. Hirai et al. (2006) show that cycle dumping, in which each player follows an ordering and dumps his/her bads onto the next player, is a strong Nash equilibrium and that self-disposal is α-stable for some initial distributions of bads. In this paper, we show that a strategy profile of bullying, in which all players dump their bads onto a single player, becomes α-stable for every exchange game of bads. We also provide a necessary and sufficient condition for a strategy profile to be α-stable in an exchange game of bads. Moreover, we show that cycle dumping is the only dumping behavior that generates a strong Nash equilibrium. In addition, we show that repeating an exchange after the first exchange makes self-disposal stationary. Length: 23 pages Creation-Date: 2019-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2019/12/WP_E1918.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1918 Classification-JEL: C72, C71 Keywords: bads; dumping; exchange; stability Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1918 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jaehyun Song Author-Name-First: Jaehyun Author-Name-Last: Song Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda Institute of Advanced Studies, Waseda University Author-Email: jaehyun.song@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Name: Takeshi Iida Author-Name-First: Takeshi Author-Name-Last: Iida Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Political Science, Doshisha Universit Author-Email: tiida@mail.doshisha.ac.jp Author-Name: Yuriko Takahashi Author-Name-First: Yuriko Author-Name-Last: Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: ytakahashi@waseda.jp Author-Name: Jesús Tovar Author-Name-First: Jesús Author-Name-Last: Tovar Author-Workplace-Name: Centro de Investigación en Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México Author-Email: jtovar63@msn.com Title: Buying Votes across Borders? A List Experiment on Mexican Immigrants in the US Abstract: Although immigrant populations have grown worldwide, their electoral connections with their home countries have been understudied. This study investigated vote-buying in the overseas ballot. Focusing on the 2018 federal elections in Mexico, we assumed that the recent reform of extending voting rights abroad, the lower socioeconomic status of the immigrants, the dubious secret ballot, and the weak oversight mechanisms in overseas ballots provided favorable conditions for buying expatriates' votes through the cross-border networks. Our list experiment found that approximately 32 percent of Mexican immigrants in the US experienced vote-buying during the electoral campaign. Furthermore, multivariate analysis showed that the most susceptible to vote-buying were those who were female, young, full-time workers, contacted by party activists, supporters of PAN (Partido Acción Nacional) and MORENA (Movimiento Regeneración Nacional), and living where there was a high concentration of Hometown Associations (HTAs). Length: 43 pages Creation-Date: 2020-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/01/WP_E1919.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1919 Classification-JEL: Keywords: vote-buying; overseas ballot; list experiment; immigration; Mexico; US Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1919 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hisatoshi Tanaka Author-Name-First: Hisatoshi Author-Name-Last: Tanaka Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: hstnk@waseda.jp Title: Differentiability of the Conditional Expectation Abstract: The differentiability of a random function b 7→ E(Y |Gb(X)) is presented in this study. The function is shown to be differentiable if Gb(X) is continuously distributed. The result is applied to the semiparametric single-index model E(Y |X) = F(Gβ(X)), and a quick way to compute the efficiency bound for estimating β has been proposed. Length: 9 pages Creation-Date: 2020-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/01/WP_E1920.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1920 Classification-JEL: C14 Keywords: Binary Response Model; Continuity of Conditional Expectations; Semiparametric Efficiency Bound; Semiparametric Estimation; Single Index Model Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1920 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Cheolmin Kang Author-Name-First: Cheolmin Author-Name-Last: Kang Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: kang@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Name: Akira Kawamura Author-Name-First: Akira Author-Name-Last: Kawamura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Health Innovation, Kanagawa University of Human Services Author-Email: Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Benefits of Knowing Own Health Status: Effects of Health Checkups on Health Behaviors and Labor Participation Abstract: Lifestyle-related diseases account for a large proportion of mortality rates and healthcare expenses. These diseases are largely preventable with behavioral changes, but people often do not have adequate information to change their risky health behaviors. This study, for the first time, examines the extent to which health checkups, which provide relevant information, affect health behaviors and labor outcomes of people with lifestyle-related diseases. Using nationally representative data on health and socioeconomic status in Japan, this study employs propensity score matching to compare two samples with similar attributes who had or had not received health checkups. The results show that people who had health checkups exhibit healthier behaviors and longer working hours than people who had not. Considering their cost and the benefits derived from resultant increases in annual income, health checkups can be regarded as cost-effective. Length: 16 pages Creation-Date: 2020-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/02/WP_E1921.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1921 Classification-JEL: I18; I10; I19 Keywords: health checkup; lifestyle-related diseases; health behaviors; labor participation; Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1921 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hajime Tomura Author-Name-First: Hajime Author-Name-Last: Tomura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: htomura@waseda.jp Title: A Model of Bank-Note Runs Abstract: This paper presents a three-period model to endogenize the need for bank notes given the availability of trade credit. The model shows that banks can improve risk sharing in the economy by discounting commercial bills to issue bank notes, because bank notes can serve as payment instruments backed by a diversified pool of commercial bills issued by payers. This characteristic of bank notes, however, can cause a self-fulfilling mass refusal of bank notes by payees due to endogenous default on commercial bills. This result holds even if bank notes are not redeemable on demand before maturity. The model shows that a capital requirement is not sufficient for preventing a self-fulfilling mass refusal of bank notes, while a reserve requirement is. Length: 32 pages Creation-Date: 2020-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/03/E1922_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1922 Classification-JEL: E42, G21 Keywords: Bank notes; Trade credit; Commercial bills; Bank run; Reserves; Payment system Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1922 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hajime Tomura Author-Name-First: Hajime Author-Name-Last: Tomura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: htomura@waseda.jp Title: Nominal Contracts and the Payment System Abstract: This paper introduces into an overlapping generations model the courts inability to distinguish different qualities of goods of the same kind. Given the recognizability of fiat money for the court, this friction leads to the use of nominal debt contracts as well as the use of fiat money as a means of payment in the goods market. This result holds without dynamic inefficiency or lack of double coincidence of wants. Instead, money is necessary because it is essential for credit. However, there can occur a shortage of real money balances for liability settlements, even if the money supply follows a Friedman rule. This problem can be resolved if the central bank can lend fiat money to agents elastically at a zero intraday interest rate within each period. Given the economy being dynamically efficient, this policy makes the money supply cease to be the nominal anchor for the price level. In this case, the monetary steady state becomes compatible with other nominal anchors than the money supply. Length: 40 pages Creation-Date: 2020-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/03/E1923_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1923 Classification-JEL: E42, E51, E58 Keywords: Nominal contract; Discount window; Trade credit; Cashless economy; Payment system; Legal tender Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1923 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takashi Kurihara Author-Name-First: Takashi Author-Name-Last: Kurihara Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: g-tk-w.gree@suou.waseda.jp Author-Name: Koichi Suga Author-Name-First: Koichi Author-Name-Last: Suga Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: ksuga@waseda.jp Title: Decision–making on public facility location by using social choice rules with a deliberative suggestion Abstract: To decide a public facility location by considering both voters' preferences and a deliberative suggestion from the government (all of them are assumed to be complete preorders over a fixed finite location set), we propose a democratic–deliberative preference update system (DD system). The DD system updates the voters' preferences according to the government's preference as follows: if any two locations are indifferent for a voter, the updated preference of the voter is equivalent to that of the government, and if any two locations are ordered strictly by the voter, the updated preference is equal to the original one. We provide a simple axiomatic characterisation of the DD system and show that the system updates the voters' preferences in linear time. We then compare the set of winners by using (I) only the voters' preferences, (II) only the government's preference, and (III) the democratic–deliberative updated preferences based on the following five scoring rules: (adjusted) plurality, (adjusted) anti-plurality, and Borda rules. We run the simulation 10,000 times for each pair of the numbers of locations and voters and estimate the relationship between the set of winners, the numbers of locations and voters, and the voting rules. We find that the Borda rule has better performance than the others in our simulation and regression analyses. Length: 21 pages Creation-Date: 2020-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/03/E1924_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1924 Classification-JEL: C63, D70, D71, D72, D83 Keywords: single–facility location; the democratic–deliberative preference update system; axiomatisation; time complexity; simulation analyses; regression analyses Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1924 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: So Kubota Author-Name-First: So Author-Name-Last: Kubota Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: kubotaso@aoni.waseda.jp Title: Culture, Gender, and Structural Transformation: The Case of Turkey Abstract: In this article, I propose a macroeconomic approach to measure cross-country differences in culture. This method is applied to explain the drastic decline in the Turkish female employment rate over a half-century. I construct a quantitative general equilibrium model of worker allocation by industry and gender. A cross-country simulation finds that Turkish families' social stigma due to female employment is 39% higher than that of the U.S. Its magnitude is comparable to the scale in Egypt but is significantly higher than the Greek case. I also find consistent microeconometric evidence in the European Social Survey. Length: 42 pages Creation-Date: 2020-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/03/E1925_version-2.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 1925 Classification-JEL: O11, D10, J16 Keywords: Culture; Female Labor; Structural Transformation; Turkey Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1925 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Matondang Elsa Siburian Author-Name-First: Matondang Elsa Author-Name-Last: Siburian Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: mes1701@fuji.waseda.jp Title: Fiscal Decentralization, Regional Income Inequality, and the Provision of Local Public Goods: Evidence from Indonesia Abstract: The objective of this paper is to clarify the potential joint determination between fiscal decentralization, regional inequality, and the provision of local public goods in Indonesia. Using provincial-level data over the period 2001-2014, we estimate the simultaneous equation model (SEM) to circumvent the possibility of interdependence between the interest variables. The result reveals that fiscal decentralization is associated with lower regional income disparity but not vice versa. The result confirms that regional income inequality and the provision of public goods are simultaneously determined. The result provides no evidence of interdependence between fiscal decentralization and the provision of local public goods. Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2020-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/05/E2001_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2001 Classification-JEL: H10, H77, H70 Keywords: fiscal decentralization; regional inequality; local public goods; Indonesia; simultaneous equation model Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2001 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takashi Kurihara Author-Name-First: Takashi Author-Name-Last: Kurihara Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: g-tk-w.gree@suou.waseda.jp Title: Net Borda rules with desirability Abstract: We apply the concept of desirability of alternatives to the clas-sic Borda scoring system. We employ a linear order over the finite set of alternatives and an outside option and define the desirability as follows: each alternative is (un)desirable if and only if it is better (worse) than the out-side option. Additionally, we assume that each voter assigns the Borda scores to all alternatives and the outside option. Thus, there is an extra gap of one point between desirable and undesirable alternatives. We then define two–type net Borda rules which output the highest–scored alternatives. The first is the type– I net Borda rule which allows that the social choice includes the outside option. The second is the type–II net Borda rules which does not allow that the social choice includes the outside option. We show an advantage in consid-ering the desirability of alternatives by comparing the outputs of type-II net Borda and classic Borda rules since their co–domains are the same. Further-more, we provide an axiomatic characterisation of the type–II net Borda rule and find that the type–II net Borda rule satisfies more proper conditions than the classic Borda rule when we consider the desirability of alternatives. Length: 20 pages Creation-Date: 2020-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/05/E2002_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2002 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Net Borda rules; Desirability; The outside option; approval-cancellation; cyclic cancellation; aggregated cancellation Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2002 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yuta Inoue Author-Name-First: Yuta Author-Name-Last: Inoue Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: y.inoue@toki.waseda.jp Title: Growing Consideration Abstract: This paper proposes a behavioral model which we refer to as a Growing Consideration model, and derive observable implications using a revealed preference approach. This model inherits the main idea of Limited Consideration models, and adds to it an assumption that an agent's consideration grows over time. An agent makes choices over multiple time periods, while she may not pay attention to all available alternatives at all times. In addition, we require that she pays attention to alternatives that she chose in the past, which property we refer to as Growing Consideration. Revealed preference tests, as well as conditions under which we can robustly infer agent's preference, consideration, and non-consideration are given for two types of Growing Consideration models. Length: 23 pages Creation-Date: 2020-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/05/E2003_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2003 Classification-JEL: D1, D8 Keywords: Choice; Behavior; Time; Revealed preference; Robust inference; Limited Consideration; Limited Attention; Overwhelming Choice; Growing Consideration Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2003 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yuta Inoue Author-Name-First: Yuta Author-Name-Last: Inoue Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: y.inoue@toki.waseda.jp Title: Rationalizing choice functions with a weak preference Abstract: This paper develops revealed preference analysis of an individual choice model where an agent is a weak preference maximizer, under the assumption that a choice function, rather than a choice correspondence, is observed. In particular, we provide a revealed preference test for such model, and then provide conditions under which we can surely say whether some alternative is indifferent / weakly preferred / strictly preferred to another, solely from the information of the choice function. Furthermore, interpreting a choice correspondence as sets of potential candidates of alternatives that could be chosen from each feasible set, we analyze which alternatives must be, or cannot be a member of the choice correspondence: sharp lower and upper bounds of this underlying choice correspondence are given. As an assumption on observability of data, we assume that the choice function is defined on a non-exhaustive domain, so our results are applicable to data analysis even when only a limited data set is available. Length: 23 pages Creation-Date: 2020-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/05/E2004_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2004 Classification-JEL: D1, D6 Keywords: Revealed preference; Choice function; Choice correspondence; Weak preference; Bounded rationality Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2004 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Author-Name: Francesco Zanetti Author-Name-First: Francesco Author-Name-Last: Zanetti Author-Workplace-Name: University of Oxford Author-Email: francesco.zanetti@economics.ox.ac.uk Title: Monetary Policy, Firm Heterogeneity, and Product Variety Abstract: This study provides new insights on the allocative effect of monetary policy. It shows that contractionary monetary policy exerts a non-trivial reallocation effect by cleansing unproductive firms and enhancing aggregate productivity. At the same time, however, reallocation involves a reduction in the number of product variety that is central to consumer preferences and hurts welfare. A contractionary policy prevents the entry of new firms and insulates existing firms from competition, reducing aggregate productivity. Under demand uncertainty, the gain of the optimal monetary policy diminishes in firm heterogeneity and increases in the preference for product variety. We provide empirical evidence on US data, which corroborates the relevance of monetary policy for product variety that results from firm entry and exit, and provides limited support to the cleansing effect of monetary policy. Length: 47 pages Creation-Date: 2020-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/05/E2005_version-1.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2005 Classification-JEL: E32, E52, L51, O47 Keywords: Monetary policy; firm heterogeneity; product variety; reallocation Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2005 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shuhei Kaneko Author-Name-First: Shuhei Author-Name-Last: Kaneko Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: shuhei7700@ruri.waseda.jp Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculy of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Impacts of Natural Disaster on Changes in Parental and Children's Time Allocation: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake Abstract: While recent studies have documented that parents' and children's own time investment are crucial factors of cognitive and non-cognitive development, the causes of changes in their (endogenous) choices are understudied. Exploiting the regional variation of the Great East Japan Earthquake (the Earthquake) and applying difference-in-differences, we present new and robust evidence that a disastrous shock can lead to a positive time investment in children's development by both parents and children. On the other hand, parental monetary investment was negatively affected by the Earthquake. This observation suggests the existence of replacements between pecuniary and nonpecuniary parental investment. Interestingly, the positive effects in children's own studying time are more intensive among children of lesseducated mothers and children not enrolled in cram schools: the population which might not have a rich studying environment. Length: 70 pages Creation-Date: 2020-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/06/E2006.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2006 Classification-JEL: J13, J22, J24 Keywords: Parental Labor Supply; Parental Time Allocation; Children's Time Allocation; Earthquake; Natural Disaster; Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2006 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ryo Takahashi Author-Name-First: Ryo Author-Name-Last: Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: ryo@waseda.jp Author-Name: Kenta Tanaka Author-Name-First: Kenta Author-Name-Last: Tanaka Author-Workplace-Name: FFaculty of Economics, Musashi University Author-Email: k-tanaka@cc.musashi.ac.jp Title: Hostility toward breaching restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic Abstract: Given the outbreak of Covid-19 most countries have adopted prevention policies that restrict economic and social activities to curb the spread. This has led to increased vigilantism and violence; for instance, Japan reported many cases of stores and firms experiencing harassment for breaching the restrictions during the state of emergency. Accordingly, this study empirically investigates the hostility toward the violation of restriction policy (breaching behavior) by stores in Japan and provides policy suggestions for efficient strategies to reduce the hostility level. We conducted an online randomized experiment of 1,600 individuals in Japan and measured their level of hostility by implementing joy-of-destruction minigames. Our results suggest that participants' average level of hostility toward industries that breach restrictions increased by 29%. However, after providing information on guideline adherence for preventing COVID-19 and sending moral suasion messages, participants significantly reduced their hostility level by 19% and 15%, respectively. Both interventions successfully reduced the probability of the most harmful behavior by approximately 8 percentage points. Length: 32 pages Creation-Date: 2020-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/07/E2007-3_version-1.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2007 Classification-JEL: C91, D91 Keywords: hostility; online randomized experiment; COVID-19; Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2007 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: So Kubota Author-Name-First: So Author-Name-Last: Kubota Author-Workplace-Name: „Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: kubotaso@aoni.waseda.jp Title: The U.S. Child Care Crisis: Facts, Causes, and Policies Abstract: Why does the United States lack affordable child care? I examine the long-term trend of the child care market and document a sharp price increase since the late 1990s. I show that a massive expansion of federal and state means-tested child care subsidies, which were intended to stimulate the market, instead crowded out child care supply. The evidence suggests that the subsidies discouraged home-based child care suppliers who were also working mothers. A simple calibrated equilibrium model captures the rising price, which eventually caused the female employment rate to decline. An effective policy should capitalize on the home-based care business. Length: 44 pages Creation-Date: 2020-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/07/E2008_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2008 Classification-JEL: J13, J21, H24 Keywords: Child care market; Female labor supply; Child care subsidies Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2008 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takashi Nishiwaki Author-Name-First: Takashi Author-Name-Last: Nishiwaki Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: t-nishiwaki@suou.waseda.jp Title: Optimal Consumption Under Different Resolution Times of Uncertainty Abstract: This study compares the optimal consumption amount for a risk-averse agent under different uncertainty resolution times in a time-separable utility setting. We show that an agent with a positive third derivative utility function (i.e., a prudent agent) reduces his/her consumption amount when the uncertainty resolution is postponed. We also demonstrate that an agent does not change consumption behavior under different uncertainty resolution times if and only if the agent has a quadratic utility. Length: 9 pages Creation-Date: 2020-08 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/08/E2009_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2009 Classification-JEL: G11, G22, G51 Keywords: Background risk; Time-separable utility; Prudence, Optimal consumption; Timing of uncertainty resolution Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2009 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shinichiro Nakamura Author-Name-First: Shinichiro Author-Name-Last: Nakamura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science & Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: nakashin@waseda.jp Title: 3EID and Waste IO: the state of environmentally extended Input-Output Analysis in Japan Abstract: Japanese IO tables are one of the largest in the world. Taking advantage of this situation, highly original contributions were developed in the area of environmental IOA. This report focuses on 3EID, an IObased database on embodied greenhouse gas GHG emissions developed in the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) and waste IO (WIO) developed by Nakamura and Kondo. Besides its high level of resolution in terms of sectoral disaggregation, the originality of 3EID consists in its explicit consideration of the physical relationships between input structure and emissions, which are mostly neglected in major international IO databases with GHG emissions. WIO has integrated waste generation and recycling within the framework of extended IOA in a highly general and flexible fashion. Recently, the Japanese Ministry of the Environment (MOE) developed and published its official WIO table, the first WIO officially developed and made public. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2020-08 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/08/E2010_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2010 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2010 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takashi Nishiwaki Author-Name-First: Takashi Author-Name-Last: Nishiwaki Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: t-nishiwaki@suou.waseda.jp Title: Does Ambiguity Generate Demand for Options? Abstract: This study examinesthe optimal investment strategies for risk-and-ambiguity averse investors and characterizes conditions under which ambiguity induces investors to buy or sell options. Under identical constant relative risk aversion utility functions, we show that ambiguity-averse investors should sell portfolio insurance. In particular, when investors' relative risk aversion is less than or equal to two, ambiguity-averse investors should sell options at any realization values of a reference asset. In addition, if the relative risk aversion is greater than two, we demonstrate that ambiguity-averse investors should sell options at smaller and buy them at higher realization values of the reference portfolio. Length: 30 pages Creation-Date: 2020-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/09/E2011_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2011 Classification-JEL: G11, G22 Keywords: Ambiguity; Multiple prior model; Options demand; Kullback-Leibler divergence Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2011 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shohei Yamamoto Author-Name-First: Shohei Author-Name-Last: Yamamoto Author-Workplace-Name: Hitotsubashi University Business School Author-Email: syamamoto@ics.hub.hit-u.ac.jp Author-Name: Shotaro Shiba Author-Name-First: Shotaro Author-Name-Last: Shiba Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Nobuyuki Hanaki Author-Name-First: Nobuyuki Author-Name-Last: Hanaki Author-Workplace-Name: Osaka University Author-Email: Title: Time Preferences in the Gain and Loss Domains: An Incentivized Experiment Abstract: Present-biased preferences in intertemporal decisions have been actively investigated. While these preferences have been elicited through incentivized experiments in the gain domain to avoid potential hypothetical bias, they have been elicited only through hypothetical experiments in the loss domain. We conducted a two-stage experiment that enabled us to elicit these preferences in the gain and loss domains in an incentive-compatible way. We found that present bias, which is exhibited in both domains, is more severe in the loss domain. Length: 39 pages Creation-Date: 2020-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/09/E2012_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2012 Classification-JEL: C91, D91 Keywords: Intertemporal choice; Present bias; Gains and losses Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2012 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mamoru Kaneko Author-Name-First: Mamoru Author-Name-Last: Kaneko Author-Workplace-Name: Emeritus Professor, Waseda University and University of Tsukuba Author-Email: mkanekoepi@waseda.jp Title: Toward a Resolution of the St.Petersburg Paradox Abstract: We study the St.Petersburg paradox from the viewpoint of bounded intelligence. Following Llyod Shapley, we reformulate its coin-tossing gamble introducing a finite budget of the banker, while this is as a resolution in the narrow sense as long as the standard expected reward criterion is adopted. It is still impossible for both banker and people to participate and to generate positive profits. We introduce cognitive bounds to people to modify the expected reward criterion and show that many people are incomparable to between participation and not. This is a rationalistic though people have cognitive bounds, and we take one more step of going to semi-rationalistic behavioral-probability for incomparable alternatives. This shows that some people show positive probabilities of participation in the coin-tossing with a fee producing positive profits for the banker. The last part is formulated as a monopoly market and its activeness is shown by the Mote Carlo simulation method. Length: 35 pages Creation-Date: 2020-10 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/10/E2014-1_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2014 Classification-JEL: Keywords: St.Petersburg Paradox; Shapley's Modification; Expected Utility Theory with Probability Grids; Cognitive Bounds; Bounded Intelligence; Incomparability; behavioralprobability; Monte Carlo Method Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2014 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takaaki Abe Author-Name-First: Takaaki Author-Name-Last: Abe Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: takatomo3639@asagi.waseda.jp Title: Stable Coalition Structures and Power Indices for Majority Voting Abstract: An (n,k)-game is a voting game in which each player has exactly one vote, and decisions are made by at least k affirmative votes of the n players. A power index is a measure of the a priori power of the n voters. The purpose of this paper is to show what axioms of power indices generate stable coalition structures for each (n,k)-game. Using the stability notion of the core, we show that a coalition structure containing a minimal winning coalition is stable for a wide range of general power indices satisfying a set of axioms, such as the Shapley-Shubik, Banzhaf, normalized Banzhaf, and Deegan-Packel power indices. Moreover, we also show that a coalition structure that represents a two-party system can be stable if the two large parties are close enough in size. Some unstable coalition structures are also analyzed. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2020-10 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/10/E2015_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2015 Classification-JEL: C71 Keywords: coalition structure; core; majority voting; power index Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2015 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Author-Name: Munechika Katayama Author-Name-First: Munechika Author-Name-Last: Katayama Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: mkatayama@waseda.jp Author-Name: So Kubota Author-Name-First: So Author-Name-Last: Kubota Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: gkubotaso@gmail.com Title: COVID-19 Misperception and Macroeconomy Abstract: Uncertainty about the true state of the COVID-19 pandemic has caused substantial difficulty in economic activities and policymaking. How does the uncertainty affect the macroeconomy and infections? What are the policy implications? To answer these questions, this paper presents a model that incorporates people's misperception about the current COVID-19 spread in the market. Our baseline model shows that underestimation about the number of infections reduces the social welfare due to worsening the externality of economic activities on virus transmissions while overestimation improves it to some extent. In an extended model with limited medical resources, we show that a slight breakdown of the medical system can mitigate the underestimation of the risk of being infected. We also consider the quarantine policy that limits both infections and the fall in economic activities for various degrees of misperception. Finally, affecting the extent of misperception about the spread is shown to be an effective policy tool that substitutes proposed containment policies in the literature. Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2020-11 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/11/E2016_20201102-1version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2016 Classification-JEL: E1, I1, H0 Keywords: COVID-19, imperfect information, SIR-macro Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2016 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: skazumi1961@gmail.com Author-Name: Yoshio Kamijo Author-Name-First: Yoshio Author-Name-Last: Kamijo Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Hiroki Ozono Author-Name-First: Hiroki Author-Name-Last: Ozono Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Law, Economic and Humanities, Kagoshima University Author-Email: Author-Name: Akira Goto Author-Name-First: Akira Author-Name-Last: Goto Author-Workplace-Name: School of Information and Communication, Meiji University Author-Email: Title: Causes and Effects of Wealth Inequality: visibility leads to a tradeoff between social mobility and wealth satisfaction Abstract: Although the disparity of wealth is one of the most important topics in the modern world, our literature review shows little empirical or theoretical study examining its cause at the micro level. In the present study, by designing an economic experiment based on the investment (private goods provision) game, we focus on the effect of various economic information on the wealth accumulation by manipulating its visibility. Our main findings follow: first, when participants' wealth distribution is visible, and the endowment of investment is carried over, people, especially the disadvantaged, are more likely to invest; second, the active investment enables people to move frequently in the economic hierarchy of the group; and finally, people are less satisfied with their final results or wealth when the 2 wealth distribution is visible. It may follow that an important tradeoff between social mobility and wealth satisfaction is caused by the information visibility: the more transparent the people's economic performance, the more active the investment; the more fluidly people move in social layers, the less satisfied they are with their economic position. Length: 44 pages Creation-Date: 2020-11 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2020/11/E2017_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2017 Classification-JEL: C72, C91, C92, M54 Keywords: Disparity; Wealth; Investment game; Experiment; Information Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2017 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masahige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masahige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Author-Name: Francesco Pappadà Author-Name-First:　Francesco Author-Name-Last: Pappadà Author-Workplace-Name: Paris School of Economics and Banque de France Author-Email:francesco.pappada@psemail.eu Title: Exchange rate policy and firm dynamics Abstract: This paper examines the exchange rate policy in a two-country model with nom- inal wage rigidities and firm dynamics. We show that a exible exchange rate is unable to replicate the exible price allocation under incomplete financial markets. In our setting with heterogeneous firms, a monetary intervention dampens nominal exchange rate uctuations and stabilizes the firm selection in the export market. The reduction in wage setting uncertainty ensured by a fixed exchange rate is par- ticularly relevant when firms are small and homogeneous, thus providing a rationale for currency manipulation in exchange rate policies. Length: 49 pages Creation-Date: 2021-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/02/E2018_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2018 Classification-JEL: F32, F41, E40 Keywords: exchange rate policy, firm heterogeneity, nominal rigidities Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2018 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shinichi Ishihara Author-Name-First: Shinichi Author-Name-Last: Ishihara Author-Workplace-Name: To-to Sugaku Kyoiku Kenkyu-sha, 1-2-1 Kudan-kita, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan, 102-0073 Author-Email: Author-Name: Junnosuke Shino Author-Name-First: Junnosuke Author-Name-Last: Shino Author-Workplace-Name: School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan 169-8050 Author-Email:junnosuke.shino@waseda.jp Author-Name: Shimpei Yamauchi Author-Name-First: Shimpei Author-Name-Last: Yamauchi Author-Workplace-Name: University of Warwick, Faculty of Science Author-Email: Title: Shapley mapping and its axiomatization in n-person cooperative interval games Abstract:An interval game is an extension of the characteristic function form games, in which players are assumed to face payoff uncertainty. This characteristic function thus assigns a closed interval, instead of a real number. This paper proposes a new solution mapping of n-person interval games, called Shapley mapping and applies it to n-person interval games. It is shown that the Shapley mapping is the unique solution mapping that satisfies the axioms of: (i) efficiency, (ii) symmetry, (iii) null player property and (iv) an interval game version of additivity. Length: 20 pages Creation-Date: 2021-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/03/E2019_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2019 Classification-JEL: Keywords: cooperative interval games; interval uncertainty; Shapley value; solution mapping; axiomatization Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2019 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yu Jin Woo Author-Name-First: Yu Author-Name-Last: Jin Woo Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda Institute of Political Economy, Waseda University Author-Email: yujinwoo0613@gmail.com Author-Name: Ikuo Kume Author-Name-First:　Ikuo Author-Name-Last: Kume Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:kume@waseda.jp Title: Taking Gains from Trade Seriously: The Effects of Consumer Perspective on Free Trade Abstract: Why do people’s preferences toward trade liberalization fluctuate? And why do we observe eventual return of public support toward free trade? The traditional literature on international political economy has typically calculated individuals’ preferences based on their comparative advantage as producers, which arises from their specific or general skill level or employment status. What needs to be taken into account, however, is that their economic preferences are constructed based upon their intertwined identities as both producers and consumers. Using a unique survey design, we conduct an experiment in Japan (2015) that shows that consumer priming resiliently offsets negative impacts arising from employment priming. The consumer effect reduces individuals’ concerns on income level or employment when they are exposed to consumer and employment primings simultaneously. Furthermore, our subgroup analyses reveal that the consumer effect remains powerful even for low-income earners or those exposed to high levels of job insecurity. Length: 40 pages Creation-Date: 2021-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/03/E2020_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2020 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Trade liberalization, consumer perspective, income-earner perspective, survey experiment, Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2020 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: JOHN HILLAS Author-Name-First: JOHN Author-Name-Last: HILLAS Author-Workplace-Name: Author-Email: Author-Name: DMITRIY KVASOV Author-Name-First: DMITRIY Author-Name-Last: KVASOV Author-Workplace-Name: Author-Email: Title: ON THE KUHN EQUIVALENCE OF STRATEGIES Abstract: We show that two strategies are Kuhn equivalent if and only if they induce the same probability measure over ter- minal nodes against some profile of completely mixed behaviour strategies of the other players. This result allows us to embed the equivalence classes of strategies in the probability measures over terminal nodes for various strategy concepts. This, in turn, allows a very clean statement of the relation between the various sets of strategies in games with perfect recall, linear games, and nonlin- ear games. It also proves useful in defining and analysing solution concepts in games without perfect recall, and, in particular, in nonlinear games. Length: 28 pages Creation-Date: 2021-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/03/E2021_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2021 Classification-JEL: Keywords: extensive form games; perfect recall; linear games; non- linear games; Kuhn equivalence. Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2021 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ryo Takahashi Author-Name-First: Ryo Author-Name-Last: Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: ryo@waseda.jp Author-Name: Keijiro Otsuka Author-Name-First: Keijiro Author-Name-Last: Otsuka Author-Workplace-Name: Kobe University Author-Email: Title: Beyond Ostrom: Randomized Experiment of the Impact of Individualized Tree Rights on Forest Management in Ethiopia Abstract: Although community forest management has become a principal approach for the management of forest resources in developing countries, empirical evidence on its effectiveness is mixed. We argue in this study that while community management is effective in protection or regulated use of forest resources as argued by Ostrom, it may fail to provide proper incentives to take care of such resources because of collective sharing of benefits of forest management. This study proposes a mixed private and community management system as a desirable arrangement for timber forest management in developing countries, which is characterized by communal protection of community-owned forest area and individual management of individually owned trees. We conducted a randomized experiment on community forests in Ethiopia in which individualized tree rights have been granted to member of randomly selected communities with the permission of the local authority. We found that the mixed management system significantly stimulated intensive forest management activities, including pruning, guarding, and watering. Furthermore, individual members of the mixed management system extracted more timber trees and forest products, which are byproducts of tree management, such as thinned trees and pruned branches. As may be expected, the extracted volumes of nontimber forest products unrelated to tree management (i.e., fodder and honey) did not change by the intervention. Length: 45 pages Creation-Date: 2021-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/03/E2022_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2022 Classification-JEL: O13, Q23, Q24, P48 Keywords: property regimes, individual rights, commons, community forest management, RCT Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2022 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yoichi Kasajima Author-Name-First: Yoichi Author-Name-Last: Kasajima Author-Workplace-Name: School of Social Sciences, Waseda University Author-Email: kasajima@waseda.jp Author-Name: Manabu Toda Author-Name-First: Manabu Author-Name-Last: Toda Author-Workplace-Name: School of Social Sciences, Waseda University Author-Email:mtoda@waseda.jp Title: Singles monotonicity and stability in one-to-one matching problems Abstract: We consider two-sided one-to-one matching problems (between men and women) and study a new requirement called “own-side singles monotonicity.” Suppose that there is an agent who is not matched in a problem. Suppose for simplicity it is a woman. Now in a new problem (with the same set of agents), we improve (or leave unchanged) her ranking for each agent on the opposite side of her. Own-side singles monotonicity requires that each agent on her side should not be made better off (except for her). Unfortunately, no single-valued solution satisfies own-side singles monotonicity and stability. However, there is a (multi-valued) solution, the stable solution, that does. We provide two characterizations of the stable solution based on this property. It is the unique solution satisfying weak unanimity, null player invariance, own-side singles monotonicity, and consistency. The uniqueness also holds by replacing consistency with Maskin invariance. In addition, we study the impact of improving her ranking on the welfare of the agents on the opposite side of her. Length: 31 pages Creation-Date: 2021-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/03/E2023-1_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2023-1 Classification-JEL: C71; C78; D47. Keywords: property regimes, one-to-one matching; own-side singles monotonicity; other-side singles monotonicity; stability; consistency; Maskin invariance. Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2023-1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hisatoshi Tanaka Author-Name-First: Hisatoshi Author-Name-Last: Tanaka Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: hstnk@waseda.jp Title: A Necessary Condition for Semiparametric Efficiency of Experimental Designs Abstract: Efficiency of estimation depends not only on a method of the estimation, but also on the distribution of data. In statistical experiments, statisticians can at least partially design the data generating process to obtain high performance of the estimation. In this paper, a necessary condition for the semiparametrically efficient experimental design is proposed. A formula to determine the efficient distribution of input variables is derived. An application to the optimal bid design problem of contingent valuation survey experiments is presented. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2021-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/03/E2024_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2024 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Optimal Design  Semiparametric Efficiency  Binary Response Model  Contingent Valuation Survey Experiments Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2024 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takashi Nishiwaki Author-Name-First: Takashi Author-Name-Last: Nishiwaki Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics,Waseda University. 1-6-1, Nishi-Waseda, Shinjukuku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan. Author-Email: t-nishiwaki@suou.waseda.jp Title: On the Stability of Equilibrium in the Market with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons Abstract: This study incorporates the difference in agents’ trading intervals into the heterogeneous agent model developed by Brock and Hommes (1998). We show that the effect of a longer investment horizon appears as either an increase or a decrease in the fraction of strategy adopted by long-term traders, depending on the values of the risk-free rate in the economy and the variance perceived by both types of traders. Specifically, when long-term traders are fundamentalists, we consider whether an increase in the intensity of choice to switch predictors can lead to market instability, which is the main result obtained by Brock and Hommes (1998). This is robust if the transaction cost borne by short-term traders is less than the training cost borne by longterm traders. Furthermore, when there is no transaction cost, to establish the stability of the fundamental steady state, the feasible short-term trend followers’ belief form becomes more restrictive if the ratio of variance in the long-term investment horizon to that in the short-term investment horizon is larger than the risk-free rate in the economy. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2021-4 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/04/E2101_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2101 Classification-JEL:G12; G14 Keywords: Asset pricing; Heterogenous beliefs; Investment horizon Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2101 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takashi Nishiwaki Author-Name-First: Takashi Author-Name-Last: Nishiwaki Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics,Waseda University. 1-6-1, Nishi-Waseda, Shinjukuku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan. Author-Email: t-nishiwaki@suou.waseda.jp Title: Does Ambiguity Generate Demand for Options? Abstract: This study examines the optimal investment strategies for risk-and-ambiguityaverse investors and characterizes conditions under which ambiguity induces investors to buy or sell options. Under identical hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility functions, we illustrate that ambiguity-averse investors should sell portfolio insurance if their preferences exhibit constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). In particular, when investors’ relative risk aversion is less than or equal to two, ambiguity-averse investors should sell options at any realization values of a reference asset. Further, if the relative risk aversion is greater than two, we demonstrate that ambiguity-averse investors should sell and buy options at smaller and higher realization values of the reference asset, respectively. Furthermore, if the utility functions display constant absolute risk aversion (CARA), then an ambiguity-averse investor should buy options at any realization values of the reference asset. Length: 30 pages Creation-Date: 2021-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/04/E2102_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2102 Classification-JEL:G11, G12 Keywords: Ambiguity; Multiple prior model; Options demand; Kullback– Leibler divergence Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2102 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Junko Koeda Author-Name-First: Junko Author-Name-Last: Koeda Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050 Japan, Author-Email:jkoeda@waseda.jp Author-Name: Yosuke Kimura Author-Name-First: Yosuke Author-Name-Last: Kimura Author-Workplace-Name: Tokyo Institute of Technology, Author-Email: kimura.y.bq@m.titech.ac.jp Title: Government Debt Maturity in Japan: 1965 to the Present Abstract: This study constructs and analyzes a dataset of Japanese government bond’s maturity structure for the fiscal years 1965–2019. Using the maturity structure data at the end of each fiscal year for the past three decades, this study proposes extracting the bond supply factor from the maturity structure variables, and structurally estimates a canonical preferred-habitat term structure model. The results provide a debt maturity equation in the fiscal year cycle, and demonstrate that two yield factors (bond supply factor and short-term interest rate) can account for annual-frequency variations in Japanese bond yields. The supply factor also explains the continued decline in the long-term interest rate in a zero lower bound environment for the past two decades. Length: 41 pages Creation-Date: 2021-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/04/E2103_version-1.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2103 Classification-JEL:E43, E52, G11, G12, H63 Keywords: maturity structure, yield curve, debt management, Japan, supply factor, bond yield Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2103 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shuhei Kaneko Author-Name-First: Shuhei Author-Name-Last: Kaneko Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku, Tokyo 169-8050 Japan Author-Email: shuhei7700@ruri.waseda.jp Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku, Tokyo 169-8050 Japan. Author-Email: Title: Estimating Sibling Spillover Effects in Academic Performance: First Evidence from Japan Abstract: Sibling interaction is one of the most important and frequent communications for children. Using administrative data collected by a municipality in the Hokkaido prefecture, Japan, we find a positive and significant spillover effect in academic per- formance both from older to younger siblings and from younger to older siblings. Our heterogeneity analysis shows that sibling spillovers vary by family backgrounds. The spillovers from older to younger siblings are amplified among same-gender sib- lings, siblings 2-3 years apart, and lower-income families. On the other hand, the spillovers from younger to older siblings are significantly observed only among brother pairs; the wider the age differences, the stronger the effects; and spillover ef- fects among poorer families are negatively estimated. Finally, we show that younger siblings in lower-income households are more in uenced by their bottom-achieving older siblings, eliciting the importance of family-based interventions aimed at better quality sibling interaction at the family level. Length: 44 pages Creation-Date: 2021-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/04/E2104_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2104 Classification-JEL:I20; I24; J24 Keywords: Sibling Spillover; Social Interaction; Human Capital; Education; Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2104 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yuji Mizushima Author-Name-First: Yuji Author-Name-Last: Mizushima Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, 1-104 Totsukamachi, Shinjuku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan Author-Email: yamizushima@suou.waseda.jp Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-104 Totsukamachi, Shinjuku, Tokyo, 169- 8050, Japan Author-Email: h.noguchi@waseda.jp Title:Spillover effects of minimum wages on suicide mortality: Evidence from Japan Abstract:This study examines the spillover effects of minimum wages on suicide mortality in Japan using vital statistics data from 2000 to 2016. The possibility of competing income and unemployment effects motivates our research question as an empirical one. Our difference-in-differences regression framework exploits a minimum wage policy reform in Japan that was implemented in 2008, which mandated prefectures to incrementally increase their minimum wages to local living wages. The revision contributed to a decrease in male suicides by 4.58% that is concentrated among age groups with greater exposure to minimum wages. A supplementary analysis of the Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions (2004-2016) suggests that increases in earned income in the absence of sizable adverse effects on labor at the intensive and extensive margins among low-wage earners could be an important mechanism driving these results. Length: 48 pages Creation-Date: 2021-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/04/E2105_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2105 Classification-JEL:I1, I31 Keywords: Well-being, Suicide, Minimum wage, Living wage, Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2105 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Junko Koeda Author-Name-First: Junko Author-Name-Last: Koeda Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University. Address: 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050. Author-Email: jkoeda@waseda.jp Author-Name:Atushi Sekine Author-Name-First: Atushi Author-Name-Last: Sekine Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Social Sciences, Chiba University Author-Email: Title:Nelson-Siegel Decay Factor and Term Premia in Japan Abstract:This study examines the two-decade-long low interest rate environment in Japan using the NelsonSiegel yield curve framework emphasizing the role of decay factor. We find that the decay factor has declined particularly after the global financial crisis, pushing down the entire yield curve as well as the conditional variance of bond yield in Japan. The decay factor was very low when BOJ’s yield curve control started in 2016 and remained low with small fluctuations since. Decay factor shocks can be interpreted as long-dated term premium shocks, and these shocks tend to decrease with BOJ’s bond purchases, controlling for other possible factors that affect term premia such as business cycles and economic uncertainty. Length: 30 pages Creation-Date: 2021-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/04/E2106_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2106 Classification-JEL:E58, E52, C32 Keywords: decay factor, Nelson Siegel, term premium, yield curve control, Japan, nonlinear state space model Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2106 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hajime Tomura Author-Name-First: Hajime Author-Name-Last: Tomura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan. Author-Email: htomura@waseda.jp Title:Household Expenditures and the Effective Reproduction Number in Japan: Regression Analysis Abstract:Daily estimates of the effective reproduction number for new coronavirus based on reporting dates are regressed on real household expenditures per household on eating out, traveling, and apparel shopping, as well as mobility in public transportation, using publicly available daily nationwide data from February 15, 2020, to February 1, 2021 in Japan. The effects of absolute humidity, the declaration of states of emergency, and the year-end and new-year holiday period are controlled through dummy variables. The lagged infectious effect of economic activities due to incubation periods is also taken into account. Estimated regression coeffcients indicate that real household ex- penditures for cafe and bar had larger effects on the effective reproduction number per value of spending than the other types of household expenditures in explanatory vari- ables during the sample period. Thus, a loss of aggregate demand is minimized if the effective reproduction number is lowered by restricting only household consumption of cafe and bar. The posterior means of simulations based on the estimated regression coeffcients, however, imply that even if a self-restraint on packaged domestic travels and an endogenous decline in mobility are taken into account, it will be necessary to cut household consumption of cafe and bar by more than 80% of the 2019 level, in order to keep the e ective reproduction number below one on average. Length: 47 pages Creation-Date: 2021-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/05/E2107_version-1.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2107-1 Classification-JEL:E21, I18 Keywords: new coronavirus; effective reproduction number; consumption; mobility. Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2107-1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yue Cai Author-Name-First: Yue Author-Name-Last: Cai Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: caiyue02@gmail.com Title:Measuring Market Power in the IPO Underwriter Abstract:This paper study underwriter’s competitive behavior in the Japanese IPO underwriting markets. We use demand estimation techniques to obtain marginal costs, and empirically compare several models of conduct. We find that differentiated product Bertrand, partially collusive models are rejected against the perfectly collusive models. We conclude that spreads in the Japanese IPO underwriting markets are consistent with the collusive pricing behavior. Underwriters seem to internalize the effect of their spread on their rivals. Length: 43 pages Creation-Date: 2021-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/05/E2108_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2108 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2108 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ngawang Dendup Author-Name-First: Ngawang Author-Name-Last: Dendup Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: Title:Returns to Grid Electricity on Firewood Consumption and Mechanism Abstract:The unprecedented stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is changing the traditional role of the forest into that of a carbon sink. However, dependence on firewood for household energy is ubiquitous in developing countries, undermining the carbon services that forests provide. One of the options to address this problem is to provide access to alternatives such as electricity. This study examines the effect of grid electricity on firewood consumption by using an instrumental variable (IV) estimation strategy, and it evaluates the mechanisms underlying the causal effect. I use three waves of large sample household surveys from Bhutan and other administrative data to complement the main results. The results show that grid electricity reduces firewood consumption by approximately 0.37 - 2.65 cubic meters per month and that electrified households are approximately 83 - 90% more likely to use electricity instead of kerosene as lighting fuel. Households respond to electricity provisions by adjusting household technology, particularly in terms of shifting to the newly available source of household fuel and adopting basic electrical appliances. Length: 44 pages Creation-Date: 2021-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/05/E2109_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2109 Classification-JEL:O12, Q5 Keywords:electricity, firewood, household technology, instrumental variables, electrical appliances Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2109 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Tsuyoshi Adachi and Takashi Kurihara Author-Name-First:Tsuyoshi Author-Name-Last: Adachi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Hun Chung Author-Name-First:　Hun Author-Name-Last: Chung Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name:Takashi Kurihara Author-Name-First:Takashi Author-Name-Last: Kurihara Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Tokai University Author-Email: Title: (The Impossibility of ) Deliberation-Consistent Social Choice Abstract: There is now a growing consensus among democratic theorists that we should incorporate both ‘democratic deliberation’ and ‘aggregative voting’ into our democratic processes, where democratic deliberation precedes aggregating people’s votes. But how should the two democratic mechanisms of deliberation and voting interact? The question we wish to ask in this paper is which social choice rules are consistent with successful deliberation once it has occurred. For this purpose, we introduce a new axiom, which we call “Non-Negative Response toward Successful Deliberation (NNRD).” The basic idea is that if some individuals change their preferences toward other individuals’ preferences through successful deliberation, then the social choice rule should not make everybody who has successfully persuaded others through reasoned deliberation worse-off than what s/he would have achieved without deliberation. We prove an impossibility theorem that shows that there exists no aggregation rule that can simultaneously satisfy (NNRD) along with other mild axioms that reflect deliberative democracy’s core commitment to unanimous consensus and democratic equality. We offer potential escape routes: however, it is shown that each escape route can succeed only by compromising some core value of deliberative democracy. Length: 57 pages Creation-Date: 2021-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/06/E2110_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2110 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Social Choice Theory; Deliberative Democracy; Deliberation; Aggregation; NNRD Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2110 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Anastasios Evgenidis Author-Name-First:Anastasios Author-Name-Last: Evgenidis Author-Workplace-Name: Newcastle University Author-Email: anastasios.evgenidis@ncl.ac.uk Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First:　Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email:masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Author-Name: Wessel N. Vermeulen Author-Name-First:Wessel N. Author-Name-Last: Vermeulen Author-Workplace-Name: Newcastle University Author-Email:wessel.vermeulen@ncl.ac.uk Title: Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Abstract: We apply a Bayesian Panel VAR (BPVAR) and DSGE approach to study the regional effects of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. We disentangle the persistent fall in electricity supply following the Fukushima accident, from the immediate but more temporary production shock attributable to the natural disaster. Specifically, we estimate the contribution of the electricity fall on the regions economic recovery. First, we estimate a BPVAR with regional-level data on industrial production, prices, and trade, to obtain impulse responses of the natural disaster shock. We find that all regions experienced a strong and persistent decline in trade, and long-lasting disruptions on production. Inflationary pressures were strong but short-lived. Second, we present a DSGE model that can capture key observations from this empirical model, and provide theoretical impulse response functions that distinguish the immediate production shock, from the persistent electricity supply shock. Thirdly, in line with the predictions from the theoretical model, counterfactual analysis via conditional forecasts based on our BPVAR reveals that the Japanese regional economies, particularly the hit regions, did experience a loss in production and trade due to the persistent fall in electricity supply. Length: 55 pages Creation-Date: 2021-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/06/E2111_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2111 Classification-JEL: E3, E6, Q54, R1 Keywords: Social Choice natural disasters; Bayesian Panel VAR; DSGE; regional spill-overs; counterfactual analysis Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2111 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takaaki Abe Author-Name-First:Takaaki Author-Name-Last: Abe Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1, Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan. Author-Email: takatomo3639@asagi.waseda.jp Author-Name: Satoshi Nakada Author-Name-First:　Satoshi Author-Name-Last: Nakada Author-Workplace-Name: School of Management, Department of Business Economics, Tokyo University of Science, 1-11-2, Fujimi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 102-0071, Japan. Author-Email:snakada@rs.tus.ac.jp Title: Core Stability of the Shapley Value for Cooperative Games Abstract: Our objective is to analyze the relationship between the Shapley value and the core of cooperative games with transferable utility. We first characterize balanced games, namely, the set of games with a nonempty core, by means of geometric properties. We show that the set of balanced games generates a polyhedral cone and that a game is balanced if and only if it is a nonnegative linear combination of some simple games. Moreover, we show that the set of games whose Shapley value is in the core also yields a polyhedral cone and that a game obeys this property if and only if it is a nonnegative linear combination of some “easy” games. In addition, we also show that the number of games that correspond to the extreme rays of the polyhedron coincides with the number of minimal balanced collections. Length: 21 pages Creation-Date: 2021-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/06/E2112_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2112 Classification-JEL: C71 Keywords: Cooperative games; Shapley value; Core; Minkowski-Weyl’s Theorem Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2112 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Naonari Yajima Author-Name-First:Naonari Author-Name-Last: Yajima Author-Workplace-Name: : Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan., Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan Author-Email: nao.yajima@asagi.waseda.jp Author-Name: Toshi H. Arimura Author-Name-First:　Toshi H. Author-Name-Last: Arimura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan., : Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan. Author-Email:arimura@waseda.jp Title: Promotion of Energy Efficiency Through an Energy Audit in the Industrial Sector in Japan: An Examination of Information Provision, Disclosure, Target Setting, Inspection, Reward, and Organizational Structures. Abstract: An energy audit is a famous policy instrument to improve the energy efficiency in facilities. Although energy audits have been adopted by many countries, it is unclear whether energy audits can improve the energy efficiency, since there are several barriers to energy efficiency under energy audits. For example, the facility does not need to evaluate the net benefit of energy efficiency is greater than its cost. Another possible barrier to energy efficiency is that an energy manager may have less information to improve their energy efficiency. Moreover, even if managers can find methods to improve their energy efficiency, organizational structures may be a barrier to adopting these methods. Therefore, additional practices such as information provision, target setting, or reward by governments can make an energy audit more effective. This paper investigates the complementarity of an energy audit and these practices by focusing on the Emission Reduction Program (ERP), which is a unique energy audit in Japan. Using municipality-level data, we show that target setting, inspection, and designating the department/division responsible for tackling climate change can complementarily promote the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by facilities under the ERP Length: 50 pages Creation-Date: 2021-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/06/E2113_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2113 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Energy audit, Greenhouse gas emissions reduction, Emissions Reduction Program, Municipality-level data Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2113 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takaaki Abe Author-Name-First:Takaaki Author-Name-Last: Abe Author-Workplace-Name: : School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1, Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan. Author-Email: takatomo3639@asagi.waseda.jp Author-Name: Satoshi Nakada Author-Name-First:　Satoshi Author-Name-Last: Nakada Author-Workplace-Name: School of Management, Department of Business Economics, Tokyo University of Science, 1-11-2, Fujimi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 102-0071, Japan Author-Email:snakada@rs.tus.ac.jp Title: Potentials and Solutions of Cooperative Games. Abstract: This paper considers the solution concepts of cooperative games that admit a potential function. We say that a solution admits a potential function if the solution is given as the gradient vector of the potential function at the player set. Hart and Mas-Collel (1989) show that the Shapley value is the only solution that is efficient and admits the potential function for games with variable player sets. In this paper, first, we argue that if we remove efficiency, various solutions admit a potential function. Second, we characterize the class of the solutions that admit a potential function and provide their general functional form. Third, we define a potential function for games with a fixed player set and associate a potential function with the axioms that the Shapley value obeys. Finally, we discuss how the efficiency requirement induces the uniqueness of the Shapley value through a potential function. Length: 28 pages Creation-Date: 2021-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/07/E2114_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2114 Classification-JEL: C71 Keywords:Cooperative games; Efficiency; Potential function; Shapley value Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2114 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masayuki Odora Author-Name-First:Masayuki Author-Name-Last: Odora Author-Workplace-Name:Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1, Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan. Author-Email: odora_masa@fuji.waseda.jp Title: Potentials and Solutions of Cooperative Games. Abstract: This study considers strategic communication before voting. Voters have partially conflicting interests rather than common interests. That is, voters cannot tell whether a collective decision is a matter of truth, such as guilty or innocent, or a matter of taste, such as left or right. A set of imperfectly informed voters communicates before casting their votes. From a statistical perspective, truth-telling by all voters in deliberation, coupled with majority rule, may lead to desirable outcomes asymptotically as the population of voters increases. Thus, from a statistical perspective, increasing the population of voters is desirable. This study, however, shows that truthful communication is not incentive-compatible with equilibrium behavior when the size of the electorate is sufficiently large. In particular, truthful communication by all voters is inconsistent with equilibrium for any voting rule and any degree of conflict when the population of voters becomes arbitrarily large. On the other hand, truthful communication might be an equilibrium for a small population of voters. Under these circumstances, voting rules matter. This study shows that majority rule most promotes truthful communication before voting. Length: 31 pages Creation-Date: 2021-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/09/E2115_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2115 Classification-JEL: C72, D71, D72 Keywords:Information aggregation, Common value elections, Private value elections, Deliberation, Voting rule, Conflicting interests Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2115 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Giang Nguyen Author-Name-First:Giang Author-Name-Last: Nguyen Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University 1-6-1 Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan Author-Email: giangnguyen@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Name: Hannah Nguyen Author-Name-First:Hannah Author-Name-Last: Nguyen Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Banking and Finance, Monash University Caulfield East, Victoria 3145, Australia Author-Email: hannah.nguyen@monash.edu Author-Name: Hung Pham Author-Name-First:Hung Author-Name-Last: Pham Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Banking and Finance, Monash University Caulfield East, Victoria 3145, Australia Author-Email: harry.pham@monash.edu Title: The Role of Social Connectedness: Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions Abstract: Using a comprehensive dataset of social network ties between U.S. counties, we document higher announcement returns for acquirers that are more socially proximate to their targets. Our findings are robust to the inclusion of geographical proximity and withstand endogeneity concerns. Consistent with the information asymmetry hypothesis, we show that the effect of social connectedness is more pronounced when targets have high information opacity, as proxied by target status, analyst coverage, bid–ask spreads, R&D, and high-tech classifications. In addition, social connectedness lowers advisory fees, reduces deal premiums, and yields better acquirer long-term performance. Length: 69 pages Creation-Date: 2021-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/09/E2116_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2116 Classification-JEL: G73 Keywords:Social connectedness; merger and acquisition; information asymmetry Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2116 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jo-Ann Suchard Author-Name-First:Jo-Ann Author-Name-Last: Suchard Author-Workplace-Name: UNSW Business School, University of New South Wales Sydney. Author-Email: j.suchard@unsw.edu.au Author-Name: Giang Nguyen Author-Name-First:Giang Author-Name-Last: Nguyen Author-Workplace-Name:School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University. Author-Email: giangnguyen@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Name: Yuelin Wang Author-Name-First:Yuelin Author-Name-Last: Wang Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University. Author-Email: wangyuelin@asagi.waseda.jp Title: Is Social Capital Valuable? Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions Abstract: Using comprehensive social capital data of U.S. counties from the Social Capital Project, we show evidence that the county-level social capital where the acquirer is located is positively related to the acquirer’s announcement returns. This finding withstands alternative model specifications and remains robust to endogeneity concerns. We also document that social capital has a more pronounced effect on the acquirer’s announcement returns when the supermajority to approve a merger, acquirer size, the deal size, and the ratio of stock payment are larger and the percentage of blockholder ownership is smaller. Additionally, we find that social capital creates more synergies, enhances acquirers’ long-term performance, and shortens deal completion duration. Overall, our results support the shareholder value maximization view that social capital constrains managerial opportunistic and selfserving behaviors, which leads to better acquisition outcomes. Length: 67 pages Creation-Date: 2021-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/09/E2117_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2117 Classification-JEL: G34 Z13 Keywords:Social Social Capital, Merger and Acquisition, Shareholder Value Maximization. Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2117 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: So Kubota Author-Name-First:So Author-Name-Last: Kubota Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan. Author-Email: kubotaso@waseda.jp Title: Money and cooperation in small communities Abstract: In this note, I investigate the circulation of money in small communities. I build a two-player repeated gift-giving game and then show that players can sustain coopera- tion by using money. An ecient outcome is obtained when players are able to hold multiple units of currency. Length: 9 pages Creation-Date: 2021-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/09/E2118.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2118 Classification-JEL: C73, E42, N10 Keywords:primitive money, repeated game. Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2118 ####### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mriduchhanda Chhatopadhyay Author-Name-First:Mriduchhanda Author-Name-Last: Chhatopadhyay Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan. Author-Email: mriduchhanda29@fuji.waseda.jp Title: Economics of clean air: Valuation of reduced health risks from Household Air Pollution - A study of rural Indian households Abstract: The rate of adoption of preventive measures for avoiding environmental and health risks arising from household air pollution remains quite low in developing countries, particularly in rural areas.. To successfully implement interventions for mitigating such risks, it is necessary for policymakers to understand the public attitude and perception towards such mitigations, which is reflected in their willingness to pay for reducing such health risks. This paper takes a contingent valuation approach to estimate the willingness to pay for reduction in such health risks using a double bounded dichotomous choice approach analysing its potential determinants. Concurrently, this paper also investigates the presence and potential sources of anomalies in such model. Results suggests that the estimated mean annual willingness to pay for reduction in health risks related to household air pollution is INR 678.14, accounting for approximately 1% of annual household income. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the presence of anomalies like internal inconsistency and anchoring effect validating the existence of starting point bias. The analysis of within-sample heterogeneity of the estimated mean annual willingness to pay further enables us to recommend policies like generating public awareness about health risks from household air pollution and targeting potential beneficiaries based on observable characteristics. Length: 49 pages Creation-Date: 2021-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/09/E2119.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2119 Classification-JEL: Q51, Q5 Keywords:willingness to pay; anchoring effect; contingent valuation method; estimated propensity score; household air pollution Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2119 ####### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shin Kobayashi Author-Name-First: Shin Author-Name-Last: Kobayashi Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan. Author-Email: Shin.Kobayashi.67@gmail.com Title: A Characterization of the Shapley Value based on “Equal Excess" Abstract: We examine the relationship between the Shapley value and the excess. Defining the excess of player i by summing up the excesses of all the coalitions to which i belongs, we introduce a condition equal excess. Using this condition, we prove that the Shapley value is characterized as a value satisfying the equal excess with respect to a reasonable weight function. This implies that the Shapley value attains the greatest benefits of the least advantaged players. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2021-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2021/12/E2120_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2120 Classification-JEL: C71 Keywords:Shapley value; Equal excess; Difference principle; Least square values Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2120 ####### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Aurelien Eyquem Author-Name-First:Aurelien Author-Name-Last: Eyquem Author-Workplace-Name:Univ Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France; Institut Universitaire de France. Author-Email: aurelien.eyquem@univ-lyon2.fr Author-Name: Masahige Hamano Author-Name-First:Masahige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan. Author-Email: masahige.hamano@waseda.jp Title: Aging, Fertility and Macroeconomic Dynamics Abstract: A tractable model with heterogeneous households is proposed to analyze the two-way interactions between demographic and macroeconomic variables. Total population and labor market participation are both endogenous and affected by economic as well as demographic factors.In addition, demographic factors have direct effects on aggregate productivity through selection effects on the labor market. We show that aging and negative fertility shocks have opposite predictions in terms of their effects on GDP per capita and aggregate productivity.A quantitative exercise based on Japanese data suggests that an aging shock alone has relatively little effects and falls short in replicating the data, while considering negative fertility shocks fits the data much better. Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2022-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2022/02/E2121.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2121 Classification-JEL: E20, J11, J13, J21. Keywords:Heterogeneous workers, Aging, Productivity, Labor markets. Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2121 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yuzuka Kashiwagi Author-Name-First:Yuzuka Author-Name-Last: Kashiwagi Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University and National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience Author-Email: yuzu-26@akane.waseda.jp Author-Name: Yasuyuki Todo Author-Name-First:Yasuyuki Author-Name-Last: Todo Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan. Author-Email: yastodo@waseda.jp Title: How Do Disasters Change Inter-Group Perceptions? Evidence from the 2018 Sulawesi Earthquake Abstract: This study investigates whether and how natural disasters affect intergroup perceptions, particularly focusing on subjective expectations for dependability on other groups in emergencies. We conduct a household survey in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, which has experienced religious conflicts and was heavily hit by the 2018 Sulawesi earthquake. Our estimation results from the survey data indicate that individuals who suffered from the earthquake exhibit higher expectations for access to emergency support from other religious groups in the future. As a possible mechanism of this change, we show that the direct and indirect experience of actual cooperation between groups after the earthquake contribute to the higher expectations of sufferers. We also find heterogeneity in the effect of the earthquake on intergroup perception, depending on, for example, the types of damage and past experiences. Length: 39 pages Creation-Date: 2022-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2022/02/E2122.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2122 Classification-JEL: D1, O12, D83, D91, H84, Q54. Keywords:disasters, subjective expectations, helping networks, weak ties. Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2122 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ryo Takahashi Author-Name-First: Ryo Author-Name-Last: Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name:Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan. Author-Email: ryo@waseda.jp Title: Gender differences in tolerance for women's opinions and the role of social norms Abstract: This study empirically examines gender differences in tolerance for opinions and identifies how social norms for gender equality mitigate gender differences in tolerance for women’s opinions by conducting online randomized experiments in Japan. In this experiment, we asked the participants to evaluate the agreement score for ten anonymous statements and implemented two types of random interventions: disclosing the gender of the statement poster and providing information on social norms for gender equality. The results of both cross-sectional and panel data analyses showed that people significantly reduced the agreement score for women’s opinions compared to men’s and non-gender-disclosure opinions. Meanwhile, the negative impact of female gender disclosure was neutralized when participants were provided with information on gender norms. These results suggest that people are likely to be less tolerant of women’s opinions in general, while such gender differences are mitigated through social norms. Length: 37 pages Creation-Date: 2022-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2022/03/E2123_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2123 Classification-JEL: C91, J16, D91, C99. Keywords:Social norms, gender bias, online randomized experiment, Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2123 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Tsuyoshi Adachi Author-Name-First: Tsuyoshi Author-Name-Last: Adachi Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: adachi39@gmail.com Author-Name: Yuki Ishibashi Author-Name-First: Yuki Author-Name-Last: Ishibashi Author-Workplace-Name:Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Stability and strategy-proofness for matching with interval constraints Abstract: We consider a matching problem with interval constraints under the hierarchical region structure. We proposes new stability, interval respecting stability, for matching problems with interval constraints, which defines ceiling respecting stability (Kamada and Kojima, 2018) using a blocking coalition instead of a pair, following floor respecting stability (Akin, 2021). Interval respecting stability coincides with floor respecting stability in problems with floor constraints and implies ceiling respecting stability in problems with ceiling constraints. In addition, interval respecting stability generally implies Pareto efficiency, unlike ceiling respecting stability. We also propose a generalized flexible deferred acceptance algorithm for a problem with interval constraints, which is a flexible deferred acceptance algorithm (i.e., cumulative offer process) that allocates quotas between regions, reserving additional numbers for doctors’ future offers needed to fill the floor constraints even if there are no offers now. Under acceptability, we show that further combining the above algorithm with the serial dictatorship yields an algorithm that satisfies interval respecting stability. We also show that the combinded algorithm is strategy-proof for doctors. Length: 38 pages Creation-Date: 2022-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2022/03/E2124_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2124 Classification-JEL: C78, D47, D61, D63 Keywords:Matching, Interval constraints, Stability, Strategy-proofness, Cumulative offer process Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2124 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Natsuki Arai Author-Name-First: Natsuki Author-Name-Last: Arai Author-Workplace-Name:National Chengchi University Author-Email: narai@nccu.edu.tw Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University Author-Email:masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Author-Name: Munechika Katayama Author-Name-First: Munechika Author-Name-Last: Katayama Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University Author-Email:mkatayama@waseda.jp Author-Name: Yuki Murakami Author-Name-First: Yuki Author-Name-Last: Murakami Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University Author-Email:cherryblossom@akane.waseda.jp Author-Name: Katsunori Yamada Author-Name-First: Katsunori Author-Name-Last: Yamada Author-Workplace-Name:Kindai University Author-Email:kyamada@kindai.ac.jp Title: Nightless City: Impacts of Policymakers’ Questions on Overtime Work of Government Officials Abstract: We quantify the impact of unexpectedly assigned tasks on overtime work in the context of Japanese government officials. Data on overtime work are typically less reliable. We overcome this problem by using mobile phone location data, which enables us to precisely measure the nighttime population in the government-office district in Tokyo at an hourly frequency. Exploiting the exogenous nature of task arrivals, we estimate impacts on overtime work. We find that, in response to a newly assigned task, overtime work initially decreases and then increases persistently. Institutional changes to relax the time constraint and improve the working environment of government officials play a part in mitigating overtime work, but persistent increases in overtime work remain. We provide a simple model of optimal work allocation and show that distortion in intertemporal task allocation can account for the observed responses. Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2022-03 Revision-Date: 2023-10 Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2022/03/E2125_version.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2125 Classification-JEL: C22, H11, J22 Keywords:mobile location data, overtime work, local projection, government officials Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2125 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gento Kato Author-Name-First: Gento Author-Name-Last: Kato Author-Workplace-Name: Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Nazarbayev University; Associate Researcher, Waseda Institute of Political Economy, Waseda University. Author-Email: Author-Name: Susumu Annaka Author-Name-First: Susumu Author-Name-Last: Annaka Author-Workplace-Name: Assistant Professor, Waseda Institute for Advanced Study, Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Masahisa Endo Author-Name-First: Masahisa Author-Name-Last: Endo Author-Workplace-Name: Associate Professor, School of Social Sciences, Waseda University. Title: Public reactions toward government-sponsored COVID-19 information in Japan Abstract: Given the criticism of the Japanese government-sponsored information despite Japan’s relatively successful pandemic control, we designed a survey experiment to test how and when COVID-19 statistics and messages sponsored by the Japanese government influences people’s risk perception, policy evaluation, behavioral intentions, and future pandemic expectations. On average, government-sponsored statistics and messages rarely induced intended reactions from the public and could even cause backlash. Institutional trust partially played a moderating role in these effects but only slightly. Combined with outcome measures’ correlational analysis, the Japanese public was found to separate pandemic severity from government performance when forming attitudes and behaviors. This implication provides insights into the seeming disconnection between the pandemic state and government evaluation in Japan. Length: 24 pages Creation-Date: 2022-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2022/07/E2202.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2202 Classification-JEL: Keywords: COVID-19, government-sponsored information, public opinion, Japan, survey experiment Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2202 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hyoji Kwon Author-Name-First: Hyoji Author-Name-Last: Kwon Author-Workplace-Name:Graduate School of Ecoomics, Waseda University Author-Email: gorongzi@gmail.com Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Workplace-Name:School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:funaki@waseda.jp Title: Do Strict Egalitarians Really Exist? Abstract: The purpose of our study is to verify the argument of Cappelen et al. (2007) that insists on the pluralism of fairness ideals. Their experiments are based on the dictator game with production, and they suggest that three fairness ideals exist: strict egalitarianism, libertarianism, and liberal egalitarianism. However, because of the characteristics of the dictator game, the egoistic behavior of taking all of the endowments is a reasonable decision and cannot be ignored. In this paper, we show by estimation of modified models that strict egalitarians do not exist but that egoists do. We assume that people who follow different fairness ideals also place different weights on fairness, and we separate the weight parameter by the three fairness ideals. Especially in the case of strict egalitarianism, the estimated value of the weight parameter indicates that strict egalitarians behave like egoists who take all of the total product. This result implies that people rarely follow the strict egalitarian ideal under this kind of dictator game with a production phase and, instead, a high proportion of egoists take the total product without considering any fairness ideals. Length: 28 pages Creation-Date: 2022-11 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2022/12/E2206.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2206 Classification-JEL:C91, D63, D91 Keywords:Fairness; Distributional Preferences; Dictator game Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2206 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masanori Orihara Author-Name-First: Masanori Author-Name-Last: Orihara Author-Workplace-Name: University of Tsukuba Author-Email: orihara@sk.tsukuba.ac.jp Author-Name: Yoshiaki Ogura Author-Name-First: Yoshiaki Author-Name-Last: Ogura Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Yue Cai Author-Name-First: Yue Author-Name-Last: Cai Author-Workplace-Name: Gakushuin University Author-Email: Title: Borrowing in Unsettled Times and Cash Holdings Afterwards Abstract: We find firms which successfully obtained a bank loan in a crisis reduced their cash holdings post-crisis, using Japanese data from the 2008 financial crisis. Firms received loans primarily from non-main banks. This substitution between borrowing and cash holdings applies to firms with an executive who had served as a CEO or financial officer in the crisis. This resulted in a substantial reduction in borrowing costs after the crisis. These findings are consistent with theories of relationship banking that managerial confidence in the availability of non-main bank loans reduces their precautionary cash holdings both to address a liquidity shortage and to mitigate a hold-up by their main bank. We also find that, in the post-crisis period, firms that obtained bank loans during the crisis spent more (over time and in comparison to other firms) on equity investments in their affiliates as well as on R&D among firms with pre-crisis R&D expenses. Length: 78 pages Creation-Date: 2022-11 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2022/12/E2207.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2207 Classification-JEL: G21, G31, G32 Keywords: Financial Crisis; Cash Holdings; Relationship Banking; Hold-up Problem; Bank Consolidation Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2207 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yoshio Kamijo Author-Name-First: Yoshio Author-Name-Last: Kamijo Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: yoshio.kamijo@gmail.jp Author-Name: Koji Yokote Author-Name-First: Koji Author-Name-Last: Yokote Author-Workplace-Name: JSPS Research Fellow, Graduate School of Economics, the University of Tokyo Author-Email: koji.yokote@gmail.com Title: Behavioral bargaining theory: Equality bias, risk attitude, and reference-dependent utility Abstract: We develop a new theory, termed the behavioral bargaining theory (henceforth, BBT), that explains various observed behaviors in bargaining experiments in a unified manner. The key idea is to modify Nash’s (1950) model by endowing the players’ utility functions with a new concept, named entitlement, that represents the amount of money the player feels entitled to receive. We first apply BBT to explain the equality bias that is widely observed in the laboratory. We argue that our explanation of the bias in terms of entitlements is more easily interpretable than the extant explanation in terms of risk attitudes. Then, we demonstrate that BBT can also explain other behavioral patterns beyond the equality bias by suitably setting entitlements. Finally, we provide empirical support to BBT by using experimental data from Takeuchi et al. (2022), where entitlements of players can be inferred from the experimental design. Length: 31 pages Creation-Date: 2022-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2022/12/E2208.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2208 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Behavioral bargaining theory, Nash bargaining solution, Reference dependent utility, Equality bias, Equal-split norm Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2208 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hu Rongyu Author-Name-First: Hu Author-Name-Last: Rongyu Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Validity verification of Mental Accounting in Public Goods Payment Abstract: Mental accounting has been applied to explain people’s consumption behavior of private goods by categorizing budgets. However, research on mental accounting of public goods payment is scarce. To provide evidence for the existence of mental accounting of public goods payment, we conducted an online experiment by following an approach similar to the classic theater ticket experiment of Tversky and Kahneman, which revealed the existence of mental accounting by positive phrase questionnaire. We used the Hometown Tax and the Resident Tax in Japan as substitutes for theater tickets, and asked respondents’ attitudes toward paying the tax by the questionnaire using positive, negative, and normative phrases. Our results were consistent across questionnaire items regardless of tone of the phrases, evincing the existence of mental accounting for the tax payment. Additionally, the results suggest that understanding the tax system may help encourage respondents to pay the tax. Length: 26 pages Creation-Date: 2023-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/01/E2213.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2213 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Mental accounting, Experiment, Public goods payment, Tax Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2213 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mieko Fujisawa Author-Name-First: Mieko Author-Name-Last: Fujisawa Author-Workplace-Name: Kanazawa University Author-Email: Author-Name: Kazuhisa Takemura Author-Name-Kazuhisa Author-Name-Last: Takemura Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Measuring the Response to Housing Energy Labels in Japan by Using an Eye-Tracking Experiment. Abstract: This study focuses on energy labels, which are set to be displayed mandatorily in Japanese real estate advertisements soon. In this study, we conducted eye-tracking experiments to identify effective design elements for energy labels. The novelty of this study lies in the fact that we not only collected data on reaction times and areas of interest(AOIs) using eye tracking, but also conducted a panel analysis controlling for individual effects by adding data from a questionnaire survey conducted after the experiment. Our findingsverifiedthat the display of energy labels in real estate advertisements is likely to lead to improved consumer understanding of energy conservation standards as learning effects.This suggestsrehearsal effects that invited availability heuristics by appearing repeatedly. Moreover, the results of the panel analysis suggest that design of energy labels are important on reaction time and number of round trips between the AOIs. We compared the two label designs in the experiment, the information in the European Union energy label was difficult to read and judge intuitively, and can conclude the rating scale label was more suitable for advertising and readers in Japan.As energy labels help with increased consumer awarenessregardingenergy standards of dwellings and energy saving,an early start to labeling is recommended. Length: 24 pages Creation-Date: 2022-08 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2022/08/E2203.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2203 Classification-JEL: Keywords: energy label, eye-tracking, label design, response times, AOI, energy-saving policy Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2203 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hajime Tomura Author-Name-First: Hajime Author-Name-Last: Tomura Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: htomura@waseda.jp Title: What Will Be the Impact of Fintech on the Payment System? A Perspective from Money Creation Abstract: The efficiency of thecurrentpayment systemrestsnot only onengineering technology but also on the legal tender and central bank system enacted by each country’s law.This essay compares the current paymentsystem with an alternative payment system that uses electronic records,such as cryptocurrencies and security tokens,assubstitutesfor conventionalcurrencies. The alternative payment system has an advantage in designing the integration of electronic payments into non-bank businesses from scratch without being bound by the technical specifications of existing bank deposit account systems. On the other hand, it cannot benefit from the supply of legal tender issued bythe central bank. Given this disadvantage, this essay argues that electronic records such as cryptocurrencies and security tokens will not substitute conventional currencies aspontaneously. Rather than changing the internal structure of the banking system, fintech will facilitate connections between bank deposit account systems and non-banking systems. Given this outlook, this essay predicts that central-bank digital currency (CBDC) will be a kind of enabler service if implemented in acountry with a developed banking system. Length: 17 pages Creation-Date: 2022-10 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2022/10/Tomura-2022.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2204 Classification-JEL: Keywords: paymentsystems, security tokens,cryptocurrencies,electronic money, legal tender,central-bank digital currency. Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2204 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hajime Tomura Author-Name-First: Hajime Author-Name-Last: Tomura Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: htomura@waseda.jp Title: What Will Be the Impact of Fintech on the Payment System? A Perspective from Money Creation Abstract: This study investigates whether revealing others' actions canreduce polarization in the decontextualized settings of laboratory experiments. Despite wealth of studies on polarization, it has not been examined rigorously with varying treatments in laboratory settings. Theoretically, if people can infer others' private information through their actions, polarization should reduce for a policy that has common interests. To this end, we have conducted a novel laboratory experiment with a set of treatments theoretically derived. Our experiments show the following implications. First, when others' actions were revealed only once, polarization reduced in the short run, but increased in the long run. Second, when others' actions were revealed in all rounds, polarization reduced and almost disappeared. However, if participants thought that others had insufficient information, polarization persisted—even when others' actions were revealed in all rounds. In addition, a reduction in polarization is not necessary to increase participants' welfare since they may converge in the wrong direction. We apply our findings to real-world political issues including COVID-19 vaccination and cross-cutting views on social media and extend our discussions. Length: 54 pages Creation-Date: 2022-10 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2022/10/Arai-2022.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2205 Classification-JEL: C92, D72, D82, D83 Keywords: belief polarization,laboratory experiments, asymmetric information Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2205 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yoshio Kamijo Author-Name-First: Yoshio Author-Name-Last: Kamijo Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: yoshio.kamijo@gmail.com Title: Fixation of inequality and emergence of the equal split norm: Approach from behavioral bargaining theory Abstract: Negotiation is at the heart of communication, social exchange, and economic transactions. Using the bargaining model as the unit of analysis, this study aims to deepen our understanding of negotiation and economic behavior based on the behavioral bargaining theory (BBT) developed by Kamijo and Yokote (2022). We introduce a key concept to analyze a bargaining situation: the stability of entitlements (people’s expectations of distribution or sense of ownership) for a bargaining pie. When a pair of entitlements initially formed is stable, negotiations are expected to end immediately; when unstable, negotiations are more likely to end in delay or failure. We show the boundary condition for stable entitlements and find that some unequal distribution between two players can be stable even for a symmetric bargaining problem. By seeking stable entitlements for all members of society, it is possible to define a distribution norm mathematically. We show that the distribution norm that arises in a symmetric situation is the golden rule of distribution: 50–50 split of the pie. Finally, by examining the dynamic process of the formation of entitlements, we clarify the sufficient conditions under which the equal split norm emerges. Length:17 pages Creation-Date: 2023-01 Revision-Date: 2023-06 Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/01/E2209.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2209 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Behavioral bargaining theory, Nash solution, Reference dependent utility, Stable entitlement, Inequality cap theorem, Distribution norm, Equal split norm Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2209 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: ShinichiIshihara Author-Name-First: Shinichi Author-Name-Last: Ishihara Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda Institute of Political Economy Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Junnosuke Shino Author-Name-First: Junnosuke Author-Name-Last: Author-Workplace-Name: School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: An AxiomaticAnalysisofIntervalShapleyValues Abstract: Interval games are an extension of cooperative coalitional games in which players are assumed to face payoff uncertainty as represented by a closed interval. In this study, we examine two interval game versions of Shapley values (i.e., the interval Shapley value and the interval Shapley like value), and characterize them using an axiomatic approach. For the interval Shapley value, we show that the existing axiomatization can be generalized to a wider subclass of interval games called size monotonic games. For the interval Shapley-like value, we show that a standard axiomatization using Young’s strong monotonicity holds on the whole class of interval games. Length: 10 pages Creation-Date: 2023-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/02/E2214.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2214 Classification-JEL: Keywords: cooperative interval games; interval uncertainty; Shapley value; axiomatization Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2214 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Amihai Glazer Author-Name-First: Author-Name-Last: Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics University of California, Irvine Author-Email: Author-Name: Hideki Konishi Author-Name-First: Hideki Author-Name-Last: Konishi Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda Institute of Political Economy Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Why High-level Executives Earn Less in the Governmental Than in the Private Sector Abstract: Governmental officials often have far greater responsibilities and make far more consequential decisions than do CEOs of private firms. Nevertheless, governmental officials often earn far less and face low-powered incentives.We offer explanations for the differences, considering Nash bargaining with the head of a governmental agency or with the CEO of a for-profit firm. If regulations restrict the price a governmental agency can charge, or if at a governmental agency one official sets price and a different official negotiates pay, then the head of a governmental agency may earn less than the head of a for-profit firm. We also show that a governmental official paid less than a private CEO faces weaker incentives. That in turn can make costs, other than CEO pay, higher at a governmental agency. We also consider elections, with voters choosing an official to set the price of the good, and voters choosing an official to negotiate with the CEO over his pay. A governmental official will be paid less than a CEO at a private firm if the income distribution in the population is sufficiently unequal. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2023-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/03/E2215-2.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2215 Classification-JEL: D23, H11, J31, J45 Keywords: CEO pay, governmental officials, Nash bargaining, tax distortions, structureinduced equilibrium, low-powered incentives Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2215 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Akira Igarashi Author-Name-First: Akira Author-Name-Last: Igarashi Author-Workplace-Name: Osaka University Author-Email: Author-Name: Ryo Nakai Author-Name-First: Ryo Author-Name-Last: Nakai Author-Workplace-Name: University of Kitakyushu Author-Email: Author-Name: Yoshikuni Ono Author-Name-First: Yoshikuni Author-Name-Last: Ono Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Citizens’ Attitudes toward the Protection of Immigrants’ Human Rights: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in the Netherlands Length: 26 pages Creation-Date: 2023-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/03/E2216.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2216 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2216 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Guanyu Lu Author-Name-First: Guanyu Author-Name-Last: Lu Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:lvguanyu@toki.waseda.jp Author-Name:Taisuke Sadayuki Author-Name-First:Taisuke Author-Name-Last:Sadayuki Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, Seijo University Author-Email:tai.sadayuki@gmail.com Author-Name: Toshi H Arimura Author-Name-First: Toshihide Author-Name-Last:Arimura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:arimura@waseda.jp Title:Does Emissions Trading Scheme Induce Innovation and Carbon Leakage? Evidence from Japan Abstract: This study aims to explore if Japan’s environmental regulation, such as its regional emissions trading scheme (ETS), can improve innovation without inducing carbon leakage. Using unique firm-level data for the period from 2003 to 2018, based on the difference-in-differences method, this study investigates how firms address issues such as innovation and outsourcing under Japan’s regional ETS framework. The key findings are as follows. (1) Japan’s regional ETS is effective in improving targeted firms’ innovation during the early stage of the compliance period. (2) Targeted firms that pursued innovation before the ETS promoted subsequent innovations after the ETS. (3) Japan’s regional ETS did not induce the risk of carbon leakage through outsourcing activities. (4) Firms that did not actively encourage innovation increased their outsourcing activities during the compliance period. Based on these findings, we discuss the study implications and directions for future policy design. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2023-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/03/E2217.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2217 Classification-JEL: Q48, Q50, Q55, Q56, Q58, Q59 Keywords: Emissions trading scheme, Japan, innovation, carbon leakage, outsourcing activity, difference-in-differences Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2217 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masanori Orihara Author-Name-First:Masanori Author-Name-Last: Orihara Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Policy and Planning Sciences, Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems, University of Tsukuba Author-Email: orihara@sk.tsukuba.ac.jp Title: COVID-19: Firm Value and Pre-Existing Corporate Governance Regulations Abstract: We find that compliance to corporate governance regulations shields firm value in the COVID19 era. We consider the Japanese corporate governance code introduced just four years before its outbreak as a suitable setting. The code recommends, not mandates, that firms appoint at least two outside directors. Stock markets appreciated immediate minimal compliers, firms that had minimally met the recommendation right after its introduction and maintained minimal compliance afterwards, relative to others from December 2019 to November 2020. Overcompliers did not differ from others, which implies that strong governance as such does not contribute to firm value in crises. The positive valuation was clustered among domestic nonmanufacturers: a sector directly damaged by the reduced mobility due to COVID-19. The findings are consistent with reputational bonding and governance theories that predict bonding to better governance has more weight in crises than in normal times. Length: 45 pages Creation-Date: 2023-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/03/E2218.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2218 Classification-JEL: G31, G32, G38 Keywords: Outside Director, Firm Value, Bonding Hypothesis, COVID-19, Regulation, Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2218 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masanori Orihara Author-Name-First:Masanori Author-Name-Last: Orihara Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Policy and Planning Sciences, Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems, University of Tsukuba Author-Email: orihara@sk.tsukuba.ac.jp Title: Election-Day Market Reactions to Tax Proposals: Evidence from a Close Vote Abstract: We ask whether the stock market immediately reacts to the underlying will of political leaders to tax shareholders from the moment of their election, much earlier than previously documented. Our natural laboratory is the surprising outcome of the September 2021 Japanese Prime Ministerial election: whereby the winning candidate secured a narrow victory of just one vote and thus promoted a second “runoff” election. The eventual election victor—Fumio Kishida—proposed increasing taxes on shareholders, leading to a market drop referred to as “Kishida Shock” by news outlets such as the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal. Using an event study approach, we find firms that were vulnerable to a potential tax increase, such as dividend payers, experienced lower stock returns. As predicted by financial constraints theory, smaller firms with more cash holdings could lessen their losses. Likewise, larger firms could reduce the severity of their negative stock returns via bond market access. As a direct target of the potential tax increase, it appears that domestic individual investors sold their highdividend yield stocks while foreign investors in fact purchased shares of the same. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2023-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/03/E2219.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2219 Classification-JEL: G32, G35, G38, H24, H25 Keywords: Taxation, Election, Financing, Ownership Structure, Dividend, Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2219 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Aya KUDO Author-Name-First: Aya Author-Name-Last: KUDO Author-Workplace-Name: Research Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Author-Email: Title: China’s monopolization of newspaper ownership in the context of changing policies Abstract: This paper examines the mechanism of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) monopolization of media outlets, especially newspaper ownership, from the 1950s by analyzing the process of the institutional development of newspaper ownership. The CCP’s substantial monopolization of newspaper ownership and the exclusion of private and foreign capital influence on media outlets leaves the CCP in the position of the owner of all newspapers. This study reveals institutional changes by examining the institutional development and path dependency of “newspaper owner-sponsor institutions” (主管主办单位制度) from the perspective of Historical Institutionalism. The Newspaper OwnerSponsor Institution evolved as an institution to ensure that the party owns newspapers while avoiding controversies over the property rights of newspapers. The development of the Newspaper Owner-Sponsor Institution was fostered by the threat of private and foreign capital inflows. The Newspaper Owner-Sponsor Institution has led to the stability of the control over newspapers, but the institution might generate instability because the CCP is stuck in a path dependency and cannot change the institution. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2023-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/04/E2220.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2220 Classification-JEL: Keywords: China, Chinese Communist Party, Newspaper, Ownership, Institution,Non-public capital Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2220 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Aya KUDO Author-Name-First: Aya Author-Name-Last: KUDO Author-Workplace-Name: Research Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Author-Email: Title: China’s monopolization of newspaper ownership in the context of changing policies Abstract: This paper examines the mechanism of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) monopolization of media outlets, especially newspaper ownership, from the 1950s by analyzing the process of the institutional development of newspaper ownership. The CCP’s substantial monopolization of newspaper ownership and the exclusion of private and foreign capital influence on media outlets leaves the CCP in the position of the owner of all newspapers. This study reveals institutional changes by examining the institutional development and path dependency of “newspaper owner-sponsor institutions” (主管主办单位制度) from the perspective of Historical Institutionalism. The Newspaper OwnerSponsor Institution evolved as an institution to ensure that the party owns newspapers while avoiding controversies over the property rights of newspapers. The development of the Newspaper Owner-Sponsor Institution was fostered by the threat of private and foreign capital inflows. The Newspaper Owner-Sponsor Institution has led to the stability of the control over newspapers, but the institution might generate instability because the CCP is stuck in a path dependency and cannot change the institution. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2023-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/04/E2220.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2220 Classification-JEL: Keywords: China, Chinese Communist Party, Newspaper, Ownership, Institution,Non-public capital Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2220 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Koryu Sato Author-Name-First: Koryu Author-Name-Last: Sato Author-Email: sato.koryu.8i@kyoto-u.ac.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Social Epidemiology, Graduate School of Medicine and School of Public Health, Kyoto University Author-Name:Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Title: Sex Differences in the Impact of Retirement on Health:Evidence from 35 Countries Abstract: Although many studies have explored the impact of retirement on health, their results were inconsistent. To provide a comprehensive view, this study examined the impact of retirement on health using harmonized longitudinal data from 35 countries. Fixed effects instrumental variable model revealed that women demonstrated improved cognitive function and physical independence after retirement. In both sexes, retirement improved self-rated health, but women indicated a larger effect than men. Consistently, retirement reduced physical inactivity and smoking among women, which was not observed among men. The observed sex differences in post-retirement health behaviors may induce heterogeneous effects on health. Given the global trend of increasing state pension age, the promotion of healthy behaviors could mitigate the potential adverse effects of delayed retirement on health. Length: 30 pages Creation-Date: 2023-04 Revision-Date: 2023-08 Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/08/E2301.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2301 Classification-JEL: I10, J26, C26 Keywords: retirement, cognitive function, physical independence, self-rated health, state pension age, fixed effects instrumental variable Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2301 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kazuyuki SASAKURA Author-Name-First: Kazuyuki Author-Name-Last: SASAKURA Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Optimal Schooling for Economic Growth Abstract: It goes without saying that education matters to promote economic growth. To examine the importance of education or schooling in economic growth, the Uzawa-Lucas model is the most popular in economics. It regards the accumulation of human capital through schooling (i.e., going to school) as the engine of economic growth. The current paper uses a generalized version of the Uzawa-Lucas model and studies the relationship between schooling-related parameters and economic growth. It is concluded that the growth rate of a macroeconomy becomes higher if workers become more patient, population grows faster, the rate of human capital depreciation becomes smaller, or the potentially maximum growth rate of human capital becomes bigger. These results may be expected intuitively. But the effect of the schooling-time elasticity of the growth rate of human capital (i.e., the exponent of the learning function) is not clear. It is shown that it depends on some conditions on schooling time. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2023-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/06/E2302.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, Number: 2302 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Education; Schooling; Economic Growth; Generalized Uzawa-Lucas Model Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2302 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Reona Hagiwara Author-Name-First: Reona Author-Name-Last: Hagiwara Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:reona.hagiwara@aoni.waseda.jp Title: Aging, Health Risk, and Interest Rates Abstract: Over the past few decades, the Japanese economy has experienced a secular decline in the real interest rate, which is the return on safe and liquid assets. At the same time, the gap between the returns on liquid bond and illiquid capital (i.e., the risk premium) has increased because of the steady return on risky assets. This paper explores the role of the health risk in the increase in the premium, using a general equilibrium overlapping generations model. In the model, individuals are heterogeneous in health status and they incur medical costs. The model also features the presence of additional medical transaction frictions, which increase with medical expenditure but can be reduced by holding liquid assets. I find that both demographic aging and the increase in the individual out-of-pocket medical costs could push down the return on bond and lead to the widening premium. However, the latter effect is dominant because higher medical burdens encourage individuals to save more liquid bond rather than illiquid capital in order to mitigate the medical transaction frictions. According to these findings, the changes in the medical systems will continue to contribute to the further widening risk premium, although the future trend will be affected by several factors, not only medical systems but also demographics and government bond supply. Length: 45 pages Creation-Date: 2023-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/07/E2303.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2303 Classification-JEL: E21, G51, I10, J11 Keywords: Health Risk; Demographic Aging; Risk Premium; Overlapping Generations Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2303 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mitsuru Katagiri Author-Name-First: Mitsuru Author-Name-Last: Katagiri Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Business Administration, Hosei University Author-Email:mitsuru.katagiri@hosei.ac.jp Author-Name:Junnosuke Shino Author-Name-First:Junnosuke Author-Name-Last:Shino Author-Workplace-Name: School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University Author-Email:junnosuke.shino@waseda.jp Author-Name: Koji Takahashi Author-Name-First: Koji Author-Name-Last:Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name: Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements Author-Email:koji.takahashi@bis.org Title: To Lend or Not to Lend: The Bank of Japan’s ETF Purchase Program and Securities Lending Abstract: This study investigates the effects of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) exchange-traded fund (ETF) purchase program on stock returns, particularly focusing on the role of the stock lending market. Using firm-level panel data, we find that the BOJ’s purchases raised stock returns more for those stocks with limited availability in the stock lending market. Nonetheless, over the longer term, the BOJ’s accumulated purchases lowered lending fees and weakened the effects of their purchases on stock returns. This result suggests that ETF managers supply stocks that constitute ETFs held by the BOJ to the stock lending market, which weakens the policy effects of the program. Length: 37 pages Creation-Date: 2023-08 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/08/E2304.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2304 Classification-JEL: E58, G12, G14 Keywords:Large-scale asset purchase (LSAP); ETF purchase program; stock lending market; Bank of Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2304 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masahiro Yoshida Author-Name-First: Masahiro Author-Name-Last: Yoshida Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Using a Soft Deadline to Counter Monopoly Abstract: A monopolist often exploits a hard deadline to raise their commitment power. I explore whether a group of buyers can employ a soft deadline to counter the monopoly. Using a simple durable goods monopolist model under a deadline, I show that the buyers’ imperfect commitment to an earlier exit may elicit a compromise from the monopolist and generate the buyers’ premium. The soft deadline partially restores the self-competition dynamics of Coase conjecture, which is previously constrained by the hard deadline. Only one soft deadline breaks the conventional link between the time horizon (or durability of goods) and monopoly power. Length: 37 pages Creation-Date: 2023-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/09/E2305.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2305 Classification-JEL: C78, C91 Keywords: bargaining; durable goods monopoly; commitment; Coase conjecture; dead-line effect Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2305 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masahiro Yoshida Author-Name-First: Masahiro Author-Name-Last: Yoshida Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Using a Soft Deadline to Counter Monopoly Abstract: A monopolist often exploits a hard deadline to raise their commitment power. I explore whether a group of buyers can employ a soft deadline to counter the monopoly. Using a simple durable goods monopolist model under a deadline, I show that the buyers’ imperfect commitment to an earlier exit may elicit a compromise from the monopolist and generate the buyers’ premium. The soft deadline partially restores the self-competition dynamics of Coase conjecture, which is previously constrained by the hard deadline. Only one soft deadline breaks the conventional link between the time horizon (or durability of goods) and monopoly power. Length: 37 pages Creation-Date: 2023-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/09/E2305.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2305 Classification-JEL: C78, C91 Keywords: bargaining; durable goods monopoly; commitment; Coase conjecture; dead-line effect Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2305 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Koryu Sato Author-Name-First: Koryu Author-Name-Last: Sato Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Social Epidemiology, Graduate School of Medicine and School of Public Health, Kyoto University Author-Email: Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Kosuke Inoue Author-Name-First: Kosuke Author-Name-Last: Inoue Author-Workplace-Name: the Hakubi Project, Department of Social Epidemiology, Graduate School of Medicine and School of Public Health, Kyoto University Author-Email: Title: Heterogeneous Treatment Effect of Retirement on Cognitive Function Abstract: This study used instrumental variable causal forests to explore the heterogeneous treatment effect of retirement on cognitive function using data from 19 countries. We found that, on average, retirees have better cognitive function than workers and that the conditional average treatment effects vary depending on individuals’ characteristics. Policymakers should provide early retirement options in the pension system to allow individuals to decide when to retire. The balance between the social benefits of raising the state pension age and the individual costs of increasing the risk of dementia by delaying retirement should be considered. Length: 47 pages Creation-Date: 2023-09 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/09/E2306Comp.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2306 Classification-JEL: I10, J26, C26 Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2306 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First:Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Author-Name: Toshihiro Okubo Author-Name-First: Toshihiro Author-Name-Last: Okubo Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, Keio University Author-Email:okubo@econ.keio.ac.jp Title: The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Generations of Firms Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamics specific to various firm cohorts and their implications at an aggregate level. Utilizing a structural model that incorporates entry, exit, and selection of heterogeneous firms, we demonstrate that the dynamics of firms from each generation, and thus the historical economic landscape, can be reconstructed. Moreover, we estimate generation-specific parameters in both demand and supply within our theoretical model, using Japanese data. Our findings reveal that fixed operational costs for firms established immediately after the Second World War are relatively lower compared to subsequent generations of firms, resulting in an increased market congestion for these early-born enterprises. Length: 49 pages Creation-Date: 2023-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2023/12/No.E2307_WP_E.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2307 Classification-JEL: D24, E23, E32, L11, L60 Keywords: Heterogeneity; fixed cost; business cycles Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2307 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masayuki Odora Author-Name-First: Masayuki Author-Name-Last: MOdora Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:odora_masa@fuji.waseda.jp Title: Fragility of The Condorcet Jury Theorem: Information Aggregation and Preference Aggregation Abstract: This study considers a binary election in which imperfectly informed voters have partially conflicting interests. There is an unambiguously correct alternative in some states, while voters disagree on the better alternative in other states. The true state is unknown to anybody, but each voter receives a private signal about the state. This study identifies the circumstances in which the probability that a society utilizing the majority rule reaches the correct decisions does not converge to 1, thus showing the failure of an asymptotic Condorcet Jury Theorem. Moreover, we show that the voting behavior never reflects voters’ private information in the large elections. Length: 19 pages Creation-Date: 2024-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/01/afdafe3804bb119d615ae67fb5c36040-2.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2308 Classification-JEL: Keywords: bargaining; Information aggregation; partially conflicting interests; Condorcet Jury Theorem Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2308 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University Author-Email:masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Author-Name: Francesco Pappadà Author-Name-First: Francesco Author-Name-Last: Pappadà Author-Workplace-Name: Ca’ Foscari University of Venice and Paris School of Economics Author-Email:francesco.pappada@unive.it Author-Name: Maria Teresa Punzi Author-Name-First: Maria Author-Name-Last: Punzi Author-Workplace-Name: Sim Kee Boon Institute, Singapore Management University Author-Email:punzimt@gmail.com Title: Optimal Monetary Policy, Tariff Shocks and Exporter Dynamics Abstract: In this paper, we explore the response of optimal monetary policy to uncoordinated trade policies (foreign tariff shocks). We first provide a simple model of open economy with heterogeneous firms and derive a closed-form solution for the optimal monetary policy response to tariff shocks in presence of nominal rigidities. We show that optimal monetary policy is expansionary following foreign tariff hikes. Under nominal rigidities, uncertainty about foreign tariff hikes induces sluggish adjustments in the labor market reallocation between exporters and domestic firms, leading to an incentive for monetary authority to intervene and mitigate the impact of tariff shocks. In an extended model, we then show the response of our economy to a tariff shock under the Ramsey monetary policy, a Taylor Rule and a fixed exchange rate regime. Finally, we provide empirical evidence for the response of domestic monetary policy to foreign tariff shocks using data on Global Antidumping from the US. Length: 51 pages Creation-Date: 2023-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/01/f7d8167e9b10e957a063d69a4004d72f-1.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2309 Classification-JEL: E3, E6, Q54, R1 Keywords: Optimal Monetary Policy; Tariff Shocks; Exporter Dynamics Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2309 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kahori Ishibashi Author-Name-First: Kahori Author-Name-Last: Ishibashi Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University, Graduate School of Economics Author-Name:Ryo Takahashi Author-Name-First: Ryo Author-Name-Last: Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University, Graduate School of Economics Author-Email:ryo@waseda.jp Title: Too“hot”to recognize her rights: The impact of climate change on attitude toward gender equality Abstract: This study empirically investigates the impact of temperature on attitudes toward gender equality using data from the World Values Survey to develop a gender perception index. Our findings reveal a substantial negative effect of increased maximum temperature on this index. A one-standard deviation rise in temperature correlates with a 4.39% to 6.08% decrease in gender equality attitudes. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that, specifically, men and individuals with lower educational attainment exhibit decreased gender equality attitudes with increasing temperature. Additionally, this temperature-driven decline in gender equality attitudes is significantly pronounced in high-income and non-Muslim countries than in low-income and Muslim-majority countries. This disparity is likely owing to differing social norms regarding gender equality. Among the examined mechanisms— cognitive ability decline, income shocks, and well-being reduction—this study identifies a decline in cognitive abilities owing to temperature increase as the key factor adversely affecting gender equality attitudes. This revelation calls for an expanded perspective on women’s empowerment that considers environmental conditions alongside traditional factors. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2024-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/02/3877db102b2bcba2ec12275bc4e423f4.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2310 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Heterogeneity; gender equality; gender bias; women’s rights; climate change; temperature impact Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2310 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: JUN MATSUI Author-Name-First: JUN Author-Name-Last: MATSUI Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Title: MOBILITY MEASURES FOR THE RESPONSIBILITY CUT Abstract: We explore measures of relative social mobility in terms of equality of opportunity. This study aligns with the principles of responsibility–sensitive egalitarianism, distinguishing between responsibility and non-responsibility factors. We introduce an additive decomposability property when these factors are distinguishable and independent. We subsequently provide axiomatic characterizations of mobility indices that evaluate doubly stochastic transition matrices In addition to the conditions for the index values to be the same, we employ the postulate that equalization of life chances is desirable. Moreover, we demonstrate incompatibility in the invariance properties of dimensional changes; that is, the values of the indices cannot be constant according to the number of social ranking categories. Thus, two corresponding compromised measures are proposed Length: 25 pages Creation-Date: 2024-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/02/f38ccd4a7b5402bb62ced868be3478b6.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2311 Classification-JEL: D63 Keywords: Mobility; Responsibility; Opportunity; Equality Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2311 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Akira IGARASHI Author-Name-First: Akira Author-Name-Last: IGARASHI Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Human Sciences, Osaka University Author-Email:igarashi.a.hus@osaka-u.ac.jp Author-Name: Charles CRABTREE Author-Name-First: Charles Author-Name-Last: CRABTREE Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Government, Dartmouth College Author-Email:crabtree@dartmouth.edu Author-Name: Yoshikuni ONO Author-Name-First:Yoshikuni Author-Name-Last: ONO Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics,Waseda University Author-Email:onoy@waseda.jp Title: Beyond Language Proficiency: Understanding the Role of National Identification in Shaping Attitudes toward Immigrants Abstract: Many studies argue that intergroup relations between immigrants and natives are influenced by perceptions of cultural distance. They claim that natives tend to favor immigrants who are fluent in the host society’s language, which is operationalized by researchers as a sign of cultural assimilation and identification with the host society. This work assumes that language proficiency is a reasonable manifest indicator of the latent trait of national identification, even though these two concepts, although potentially related, are theoretically distinct. Our study aims to disentangle the relationship between immigrants’ language proficiency and their national identification in the context of the United States. We conducted pre-registered vignette and conjoint experiments to achieve this goal with national samples of 3,325 and 4,201, respectively. The results from the vignette experiment indicate that natives exhibit a preference for immigrants who not only possess fluent English skills but also independently strongly identify with the United States. Notably, the effect size for national identification is significantly larger than for language proficiency. These findings are further supported by the results from the conjoint experiment, which incorporates a broader range of immigrant attributes. Our results highlight the interrelated yet distinct nature of national identification and language proficiency. The broader takeaway is that relying solely on language proficiency as a measure of national identification can yield biased results and lead to misleading conclusions. Our findings have implications for the literatures on immigration and for experiments that use language proficiency as an experimental treatment. Length: 39 pages Creation-Date: 2024-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/03/e48b2c8f7ab771708b65bda5d13e748b.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2312 Classification-JEL: Keywords: immigrants; national identification; language proficiency; survey experiments Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2312 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email:masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Author-Name: Yuki Murakami Author-Name-First: Yuki Author-Name-Last: Murakami Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email:yuki.murakami.ym1@gmail.com Title: Optimal Government Spending in a Collateral-Constrained Small Open Economy Abstract: This paper investigates the stabilization role of government spending in a collateral constrained small open economy. The economy is characterized by inefficiencies in borrowing decisions, resulting from pecuniary externalities and the amplification mechanism of the debt-deflation spiral. In this context, government spending serves to maintain financial stability, extending beyond the efficient provision of public goods. When the economy borrows up to its limit, the optimal response is fiscal stimulus, which mitigates the amplification of the debt-deflation mechanism. The optimal time-consistent policy prevents recessionary shocks from leading to a financial crisis accompanied by a drastic reversal of the current account. We show that an implementable government spending policy, which maintains a constant ratio to GDP, approximates the optimal policy and achieves a second-best outcome. Length: 28 pages Creation-Date: 2024-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/04/4d136256ba2448930749953875a6f02b.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2401 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Small open economy; financial crises; optimal government spending Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2401 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ryo Takahashi Author-Name-First:Ryo Author-Name-Last: Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University, Graduate School of Economics Author-Email:ryo@waseda.jp Title: From the Holy Land to the Homeland: The Impact of Anime Broadcasts on Economic Growth Abstract: This study investigates the long-term effects of media exposure on economic growth by examining quasi-experimental variations in media exposure, facilitated by anime broadcasts featuring Japan’s “anime holy lands”—real-world locations depicted in anime. I aim to evaluate the economic growth of municipalities featured in these anime broadcasts using average income and night-time luminosity as indicators. The featured municipalities experience significant economic growth 5 and 13 years after the broadcasts. Population increase, resulting from the influx of new residents following anime broadcasts, is identified as the primary mechanism driving this growth. Length: 45 pages Creation-Date: 2024-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/04/3877db102b2bcba2ec12275bc4e423f4.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2402 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2402 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alice Chong Author-Name-First: Alice Author-Name-Last: Chong Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: alice.chong@fuji.waseda.jp Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First:Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:h.noguchi@waseda.jp Title: Heterogeneous Impacts of Telework on Pregnancy and Birth Rates: Evidence from Longitudinal Data on Employment Dynamics in Japan Abstract: Flexible working arrangements, such as telework, have the potential to serve as a mechanism for promoting female workforce participation and concurrently encouraging childbearing, particularly in rapidly aging societies. This study employs longitudinal data from the Japan Panel Study of Employment Dynamics (JPSED) to estimate the impact of being employed in an occupation characterized by a high proportion of teleworkers on the likelihood of women experiencing a birth or pregnancy within a given year. Employing a difference-in-differences framework in combination with fixed effects logistic regression, the study exploits the exogenous increase in occupations’ teleworker ratios driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings suggest that women in occupations with high teleworking ratios exhibit a 1.5 times increase in odds of being pregnant. While the results for the odds of giving birth are positive, they lack statistical significance. Furthermore, the treatment effects are heterogeneous, demonstrating more pronounced effects on women with higher levels of education, full-time employment, and abovemedian income. These results are reinforced with propensity score matching and random permutation tests. This study sheds light on the potential influence of telework on family planning decisions and underscores the importance of considering various demographic factors in understanding the nuanced effects of flexible working arrangements on fertility outcomes. Length: 60 pages Creation-Date: 2024-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/04/891bb0a155ebe0d919bc31e4ec19206f.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2313 Classification-JEL: Keywords: telework; Japan; fertility; female LFP; family formation; difference-in-differences Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2313 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kazumi Shimizu Author-Name-First: Kazumi Author-Name-Last: Shimizu Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: skazumi1961@gmail.com Author-Name: Rongyu Hu Author-Name-First:Rongyu Author-Name-Last: Hu Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: rongyuhu@asagi.waseda.jp Title: Why do people who think they have failed want to see the results more? An investigation based on the Ego Utility Model Abstract: This paper examines how ego utility influences decision making and shows that the desire to maintain or enhance one’s self-image can lead to the avoidance of useful information if it conflicts with existing beliefs. It challenges the traditional economic view of purely rational decision making focused on economic gain by incorporating ego utility into expected utility theory. The study provides theoretical evidence on how ego utility affects information processing and decision-making, suggesting that self-esteem plays a significant role. This work enriches the field of behavioural economics by shedding light on the reasons behind individuals’ reluctance to seek relevant information, highlighting the complex relationship between ego utility and information seeking behaviour. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2024-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/05/599307544dfc06c26b1a5dca6a5387d6.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2403 Classification-JEL: Keywords: ego utility; Bayesian updating; beta distribution Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2403 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Aline Mortha Author-Name-First: Aline Author-Name-Last: Mortha Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University Author-Email: aline.mortha@toki.waseda.jp Author-Name: Toshi H. Arimura Author-Name-First:Toshi H. Author-Name-Last: Arimura Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: : arimura@waseda.jp Title: Feed-in-Tariff backfires: implicit carbon pricing and inter-fuel substitutionin manufacturing Abstract: Partial energy taxation, such as fuel or electricity taxes, is gaining momentum in recent years, but such taxes may result in additional demand for non-taxed, substitute energy goods. In this research, we analyze the effect of the Japanese renewable levy, a prime example of implicit carbon pricing, introduced in 2012. Using data on Japanese plants between April 2004 to March 2020, we utilize the existence of a partial exemption scheme from the tax, and instruments for identification. Our results show that the levy had undesirable consequences, as it is associated with a rebound in emissions for certain sectors where electricity and fuels are substitute (iron & steel, +52%; pulp &paper, +13%). This rebound is explained by a greater share of electricity generated onsite, powered by fossil fuel. We show that the levy provided an incentive for plants to switch from clean (gas) to dirty (coal, oil) fuels. While the tax is generally correlated with gains in electricity and energy efficiency, these efforts are not enough to offset there bound in emissions. Our results shed light on the effect of partial energy taxation on the manufacturing industry, and suggest the need for explicit and complete forms of carbon pricing. Length: 47 pages Creation-Date: 2024-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/05/cac80381cf92d8ffbee862b08ccfb7fd.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2404 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Implicit Carbon Pricing; Renewable levy; Energy-intensive industry; Interfuel substitution Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2404 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masato Oikawa Author-Name-First: Masato Author-Name-Last: Oikawa Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda Institute for Advanced Study, Waseda University Author-Email: m.oikawa@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Name: Takumi Toyono Author-Name-First: Takumi Author-Name-Last: Toyono Author-Workplace-Name:Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: toyotaku0224@fuji.waseda.jp Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: h.noguchi@waseda.jp Author-Name: Akira Kawamura Author-Name-First: Akira Author-Name-Last: Kawamura Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Human Sciences, Waseda University Author-Email: akawamura@waseda.jp Title: Heterogeneous impacts of local unemployment rates on child neglect: Evidence from Japan’s vital statistics on mortality Abstract: This study examines the causal impact of the local unemployment rate on child death cases due to unintentional drowning – a common consequence of child neglect – using vital statistics from Japan. We use predicted overall and gender-specific local unemployment rates derived from a shift-share research design, rather than the raw local unemployment rates. Our estimation results reveal that a one-percent increase in the overall local unemployment rate correlates with a 7.13% rise in child death cases due to unintentional drowning. When analyzing gender-specific unemployment rates, we find that only increases in female unemployment rates are associated with an uptick in tragic cases. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of female local unemployment rate is more pronounced in regions characterized by lower socioeconomic status, higher proportions of younger parents, a greater prevalence of single-parent households, and fewer public resources. Furthermore, our findings suggest that younger single parents are particularly susceptible to the mental health impacts of increases in female local unemployment rates. Length: 37 pages Creation-Date: 2024-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/07/89efc1f05cf99e16b6b630b877653dec.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2405 Classification-JEL: Keywords: child neglect; child death cases; unemployment rate; shift-share research design Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2405 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masato Oikawa Author-Name-First: Masato Author-Name-Last: Oikawa Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda Institute for Advanced Study, Waseda University Author-Email: m.oikawa@aoni.waseda.jp Author-Name: Takamasa Yamaguchi Author-Name-First: Takamasa Author-Name-Last: Yamaguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda Institute of Social & Human Capital Studies (WISH) Author-Email: Author-Name: Toshihide Awatani Author-Name-First:Awatani Author-Name-Last:Toshihide Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Family Medicine, Kochi Medical School, Kochi, Japan Author-Email: Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: h.noguchi@waseda.jp Author-Name: Akira Kawamura Author-Name-First: Akira Author-Name-Last: Kawamura Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Human Sciences, Waseda University Author-Email: akawamura@waseda.jp Title: Impacts of health checkup programs standardization on working-age self-employed and unemployed: Insights from Japan’s local government response to national policy Abstract: This study analyzes the effects of the expansion of municipal per capita expenses on health checkup programs, following the introduction of the Specific Health Checkups and Specific Health Guidance (SHC-SHG), on the health outcomes and behaviors of self-employed and unemployed populations, which have been largely overlooked by previous research. To address this, we applied a dosing difference-in-differences (DID) estimation method, exploiting variation in treatment intensity across municipalities. The DID estimation reveals that the SHC-SHG introduction led to a reduction in the proportion of people diagnosed with lifestyle-related diseases in the municipalities that required significant increases in per-capita health checkup program expenses to comply with the new program, with a more pronounced impact on those with multiple diagnoses compared to those with a single diagnosis. A subgroup analysis indicates that health improvements following the SHC-SHG introduction were observed among self-employed workers and homeowners, whereas such improvements were not evident among the unemployed and renters. Moreover, we identify significant behavioral changes among the population in the high-expansion municipalities following the policy introduction. A back-of-the-envelope calculation demonstrates the municipal response to the SHC-SHG introduction is cost-effective. Length: 64 pages Creation-Date: 2024-11 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/11/ab69dcda3ef48e6aa4b5f42a7e77052c.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2406 Classification-JEL: Keywords: health checkup; lifestyle-related diseases; health outcomes; health behaviors; costeffectiveness Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2406 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masazumi Wakatabe Author-Name-First: Masazumi Author-Name-Last: Wakatabe Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:wakatabe@waseda.jp Title:"Opulence and Freedom": What Adam Smith Could Teach Us about the Future of Capitalism Abstract: Capitalism is in trouble, or so have we been told. What could we learn from Adam Smith about the future of capitalism? I argue that Adam Smith has a lot to teach us about the future of capitalism. I first examine recent discussions about the current challenges and criticisms against capitalism such as the productivity slowdown, the waning competition, the role of globalization, the rising inequality and climate change. Through this exercise, I emphasize that there are indeed some global trends, but there are also important national and regional differences reflecting differences in institutions and policy; in this sense, not only natural scientific technology but also social scientific technology, i.e. governance, policy and institutions, matter. Then, I argue that what Smith could teach us on in five aspects. First, it should be noted that Adam Smith conceived a truly inclusive capitalism: he took income distribution into account when he argued for the desirability of economic development. Secondly, an inclusive capitalism requires broad knowledge formation and sharing among the people. Smith’s inclusive capitalism is based on the division of labor principle, markets or broad exchange basis to foster the division of labor, and policy measures to alleviate side effects of the division of labor. Thirdly, the expansion of exchange and trade has beneficial effects, but we should be aware of its distributional consequences. Fourthly, institutions matter. Markets are the most fundamental institutions, but it is imperative to preserve competition in markets, especially free entry. Fifthly, proper law and institutions are essential to the well-functioning market economy, the “system of natural liberty”. However, the “system of natural liberty” is not automatically achieved. Policy and institutions are history dependent, therefore history matters. Here “relatively cautious sense of progress” of the Scottish enlightenment thinkers including Smith should be reminded of. Length: 57 pages Creation-Date: 2024-11 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/12/c997808d7bdd021a47d19d984721b453.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2407 Classification-JEL: Keywords: : Adam Smith; inclusive capitalism; competition; economic development; institutions Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2407 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Po-Lin Chen Author-Name-First: Po-Lin Author-Name-Last: Chen Author-Workplace-Name:Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Era of restructuring: Deposit demand estimation and welfare consequences during the Japanese mega-bank mergers wave Abstract: I estimate a structural model of the Japanese bank deposit market, and evaluate the welfare impact of the mega-bank mergers in the early 2000s. Banks compete for deposits through their deposit rates to achieve profit maximization, whereas depositors choose among banks with given deposit rates. The estimation results show that depositors’ demand is insensitive to the deposit rate. Moreover, I find that the demand for deposits decreases when banks experience financial distress, even with deposit insurance coverage. Furthermore, when calculating welfare, I find that most of the mega-bank mergers lead to a reduction in consumer surplus compared with the counterfactual case of no mergers. The contributions of this study are that it quantifies the welfare effect of the mergers for the deposit market in Japan, where the financial market is heavily dominated by banks, and that it is likely to encourage future research on bank consolidation in Japan, which may contribute to verifying and resolving the long-discussed problem of overbanking in the Japanese financial market. Length: 47 pages Creation-Date: 2024-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2024/12/ec747945806bb3633dd79694427170cc.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2408 Classification-JEL: Keywords:Deposit market; Discrete choice; Consumer welfare; Banking; Mergers and acquisitions Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2408 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yingqian TANG Author-Name-First: Yingqian Author-Name-Last: TANG Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, and Waseda Institute of Social & Human Capital Studies (WISH) Author-Email: yingqian.tang@asagi.waseda.jp Author-Name: Haruko NOGUCHI Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: NOGUCHI Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University and WISH Author-Email: Title: Do Hospital Beds Fill Themselves? Capacity, Physician Behavior, and Healthcare Spending Abstract: We provide causal evidence that increased bed availability induces substitution from outpatient to inpatient care without improving health outcomes—consistent with physicians operating on the “flat of the curve.” We find that capacity effects concentrate in regions with abundant physicians and high baseline bed capacity, supporting target income models and Roemer’s Law. Conservative estimates suggest these discretionary admissions generate 38-63 million USD potentially avoidable spending annually. Our findings demonstrate that supply-side factors drive geographic variation in healthcare utilization and indicate meaningful scope for cost reduction through capacity optimization without compromising access to medically necessary care in aging societies. Length: 41 pages Creation-Date: 2025-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2026/01/008c79e2d435fc218b4863fd14d87ad4.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2409 Classification-JEL: I11, I18, J14 Keywords: Hospital capacity; Physician behavior; Supplier-induced demand; Healthcare expenditure; Aging population Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2409 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shigeharu Okajima Author-Name-First: Shigeharu Author-Name-Last: Okajima Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, Osaka University of Economics Author-Email: Author-Name:Taro Shinoda Author-Name-First: Taro Author-Name-Last: Shinoda Author-Workplace-Name:Shinshu University Author-Email: Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Workplace-Name:School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Hiroko Okajima Author-Name-First: Hiroko Author-Name-Last: Okajima Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, Nagoya University Author-Email: Title: The Impact of Earmarked Taxes on Supply Curve Shifts: A Laboratory Experiment Abstract: In this study, we examine how ordinary taxes and earmarked taxes influence tax passthrough in a market experiment. We hypothesize that tax pass-through is lower for earmarked taxes than for ordinary taxes and that this difference depends on market conditions, specifically the balance between the trade surpluses for sellers and buyers. Our findings confirm that ordinary taxes result in full tax pass-through, whereas earmarked taxes result in less pass-through. Under earmarked taxes, sellers adjust the level of pass-through based on their trade surplus relative to the buyers’ trade surplus. These results underscore the need to distinguish between tax types. The results of our study provide novel insights into the resource allocation effects of different tax types, offering significant implications for policymakers seeking to regulate goods with externalities through taxation. Length: 20 pages Creation-Date: 2025-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/01/55734c451e0c81d70a6bd84c3b60cf4b.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2410 Classification-JEL: Keywords: ordinary taxes; earmarked taxes; statutory incidence; market experiment Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2410 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yue Cai Author-Name-First: Yue Author-Name-Last: Cai Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Economics, Gakushuin University Author-Email: Title: Market Power and Money Market Funds Risk-Taking Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between market power and risk-taking behavior in China's money market funds. Using a dual methodological approach that combines demand estimation and a natural experiment, we demonstrate that increased market power significantly decreases funds' risk-taking. Our analysis proceeds in two stages: 1) We derive fund-specific investor elasticities through demand estimation as a measure of market power. 2) We exploit the staggered introduction of MMFs for digital transactions on Alipay, the world's largest digital payment platform, as a natural experiment. Our findings reveal that upon becoming eligible for digital transactions, funds experience a decrease in investors' demand elasticity; this increase in market power subsequently leads to reduced risk-taking behavior. Length: 37 pages Creation-Date: 2025-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/01/c2b95cbd0fe9b243f8e95d18364466a4.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2411 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2411 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yue Cai Author-Name-First: Yue Author-Name-Last: Cai Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Economics, Gakushuin University Author-Email: Title: The Effects of Misperceived Managerial Skills: Evidence from Chinese Mutual Funds Abstract: Many mutual fund investors rely primarily on past performance and likely do not engage in sophisticated analysis of managers' alpha when making investment decisions. This paper explores how investors' misperception of managerial skill affects mutual funds' market power and investors' welfare, using data from China's mutual fund market. Our findings indicate that investors often confuse the effects of fund exposures to common systematic factors with genuine managerial skill, thereby increasing the market power of funds. Market power of funds are higher when investor demand arises from factor-related returns. Counterfactual experiments suggest that employing more sophisticated asset pricing models to assess fund managerial skills can enhance investor welfare. For instance, basing investment decisions on performance adjusted by a 4-factor model could increase investor welfare by $203 to $674 per year for each investor Length: 34 pages Creation-Date: 2025-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/01/832f60f281fda3250d2d0273a4f9d3b4.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2412 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2412 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Workplace-Name:School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Yukio Koriyama Author-Name-First: Yukio Author-Name-Last: Koriyama Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, CREST, Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris Author-Email: Title: Deriving Egalitarian and Proportional Principles from Individual Monotonicity Abstract: The problem of efficient allocation of the grand coalition worth in transferableutility games boils down to specifying how the surplus is distributed among individuals, in the situation where the individual share is well-defined. We show that the Individual Monotonicity axiom for Equal Surplus, together with Efficiency and Equal Treatment, implies Egalitarian Surplus Sharing, while the same axiom for Equal Ratio implies Proportional Division. The results thus illustrate the common structure in deriving two principles of surplus distribution, egalitarian and proportional, from the Individual Monotonicity axioms. We further show that relaxation of Equal Treatment leads to Weighted Surplus Sharing and Shifted Proportional Division, highlighting the common structure in which Individual Monotonicity characterizes the allocations that can incorporate social objectives of a redistributive nature. Length: 29 pages Creation-Date: 2025-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/01/8a79f4d6a3a2949c4bcf251f5e49f278.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2413 Classification-JEL: Keywords:TU-games; monotonicity; egalitarian surplus sharing; proportional division; redistribution Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2413 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yasuyuki Todo Author-Name-First: Yasuyuki Author-Name-Last: Todo Author-Workplace-Name:Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Shuhei Nishitateno Author-Name-First: Shuhei Author-Name-Last: Nishitateno Author-Workplace-Name:School of Policy Studies, Kwansei Gakuin University Author-Email: Author-Name: Sean Brown Author-Name-First: Sean Author-Name-Last: Brown Author-Workplace-Name:Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: Title: The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Foreign Direct Investment from China, the United States, and Major Investor Countries Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on foreign direct investment (FDI) from China and other major source countries, such as the United States (US), France, and Japan, by applying staggered difference-in-differences (DID) event study estimations to a gravity model. In addition to estimations using country-pair fixed effects, we estimate models with source and host country-year fixed effects to control for the effect through changes in any host country attribute due to the BRI, such as infrastructure, and highlight the effect through changes in bilateral relationships. We find that FDI from China, Hong Kong SAR, the US, Switzerland, Japan, and France to BRI countries increased in the post-BRI period, whereas FDI from the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, and Luxembourg decreased. After controlling for country-year fixed effects, there remains a post-BRI upward trend in FDI from the US, Switzerland, and France and a downward trend in FDI from the UK, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. These findings suggest that FDI from non-China countries to BRI countries can be affected by their bilateral relationships. For example, the US may have invested more in BRI countries to strategically compete with China in those locations, whereas France and Switzerland may have done so because of investment cooperation with China in Africa. Length: 40 pages Creation-Date: 2025-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/01/4c4b43b30a5d64f015063679301b30ba.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2414 Classification-JEL: Keywords:Belt and Road Initiative; foreign direct investment; gravity models; staggered DID; event study Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2414 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Makoto Fukumoto Author-Name-First: Makoto Author-Name-Last: Fukumoto Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University Author-Email: Author-Name: Masato Shizume Author-Name-First: Masato Author-Name-Last: Shizume Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Modern Banking Reforms and Financial Activities of Indigenous Merchants: A Case from Japan in the Late 19th Century Abstract: Following the opening of the treaty ports in 1859 and Meiji Restoration in 1868, Japan instituted a series of drastic reforms, successfully modernized, and achieved prolonged economic growth. Among other entities, national banks structured as joint stock companies according to the US model played a key role in the modernization of the country by providing the society with liquidity and integrating the national financial markets. We explore the factors that led to the success of the national banks by constructing new datasets characterizing the origins of the national banks and the viability of individual national banks. We then perform regressions with this database to explore the emergence of banking activities during the preceded period and to test whether the origins of the banks affected their viability and regional economic growth. Empirical results from econometric analysis and case studies demonstrate that commoners who engaged in commercial activities played a key role in Japan’s modernization as the founders of the national banks. Length: 49 pages Creation-Date: 2025-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/02/166a4251118d5dd1726cbc35521234de.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2415 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2415 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University Author-Email:masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Author-Name: Philip Schnattinger Author-Name-First: Philip Author-Name-Last: Schnattinger Author-Workplace-Name:Bank of England Author-Email: Author-Name:Mototsugu Shintani Author-Name-First: Mototsugu Author-Name-Last: Shintani Author-Workplace-Name:University of Tokyo Author-Email: Author-Name:Iichiro Uesugi Author-Name-First: Iichiro Author-Name-Last: Uesugi Author-Workplace-Name: Hitotsubashi University Author-Email: Author-Name:Francesco Zanetti Author-Name-First: Francesco Author-Name-Last: Zanetti Author-Workplace-Name:University of Oxford Author-Email: Title: Credit Market Tightness and Zombie Firms: Theory and Evidence Abstract: We develop a simple model of financial intermediation with search and matching frictions between banks and firms. The model links credit market tightness –encapsulating the abundance of credit– to the search and opportunity costs of credit intermediation. Search costs generate lending to unprofitable firms (i.e., zombies) and the opportunity costs of searching exert countervailing forces on the incentives for banks and firms to participate in zombie lending, generating an inverted U-shaped relationship between credit market tightness and the share of zombie lending. High bargaining power of firms decreases the opportunity cost of firms foregoing credit relationships, reduces the share of zombie firms and increases the efficacy of capital injections to reduce zombie lending. Using data for 31 industries in Japan over the period 2000-2019, we test and corroborate our theoretical predictions by constructing theory-consistent measures of credit market tightness and bargaining power. Consistent with our theory, the findings reveal that capital injections are more effective in industries with higher credit market tightness and greater bargaining power of firms. Length: 47 pages Creation-Date: 2025-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/02/90c7d73bf7b095ba47aa85addd591b77.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2416 Classification-JEL: E22; E23; E32; E44 Keywords:Zombie firms; bank lending; credit market tightness Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2416 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Similan Rujiwattanapong Author-Name-First: Similan Author-Name-Last: Rujiwattanapong Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:simi.rujiwattanapong@gmail.com Title: Job Search, Job Findings and the Role of Unemployment Insurance History Abstract: Standard search theory suggests that (1) job search intensity increases with the relative gain from searching, and that (2) job search intensity increases the job finding probability. Firstly, this paper presents new empirical findings that are at odds with these theoretical predictions when workers are categorised by their unemployment insurance (UI) history. Unemployed workers who either are currently receiving or used to receive UI search harder than those who never take up UI during their unemployment spells. Moreover, despite their higher search intensity, those with a UI history have a lower job finding probability. Subsequently, I incorporate unproductive and inefficient job search, consistent with these empirical findings, into an otherwise standard stochastic equilibrium search-and-matching model with endogenous search intensity. Three key results emerge from these job search imperfections: (1) Aggregate search intensity becomes acyclical leading to an underestimated matching efficiency; (2) the general equilibrium effects of UI extensions and the labour market fluctuations are dampened; and (3) unemployment and its duration are more persistent. Length: 54 pages Creation-Date: 2025-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/02/6f314f77d340a75bc29b47630e6764f3.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2417 Classification-JEL: E24; E32; J24; J64; J65 Keywords:Business cycles; job search intensity; matching efficiency; unemployment insurance; unemployment dynamics Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2417 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Similan Rujiwattanapong Author-Name-First: Similan Author-Name-Last: Rujiwattanapong Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:simi.rujiwattanapong@gmail.com Title: Labor Market Shocks and the Dynamics of the Aggregate Saving Rate in General Equilibrium Abstract: This paper studies the effects of shocks to the flow hazards into and out of unemployment on the aggregate household saving rate, and attempts to explain the spike in the US saving rate during the Great Recession with these shocks. The results are obtained from a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model under incomplete markets and borrowing constraints similar to Krusell and Smith (1998) using extended path algorithm, perturbation method and approximate aggregation. It is found that a negative job-finding shock and a positive job-separation shock simultaneously and separately contribute to an increase in the saving rate. Shocks to the job-finding probability create a more drastic and persistent impact on the saving rate than do shocks to the job-separation probability. The baseline model generates the saving rate that exhibits strikingly similar dynamics to the US saving rate; however, the magnitude of the model-generated responses is somewhat smaller than what can be observed in the US. Job-finding shocks alone explain almost all the dynamics of the saving rate during the Great Recession whilst both job-finding and job-separation shocks are important in explaining the saving dynamics during normal times. The same analysis under the complete market assumption yields results completely opposite to the US data. Length: 25 pages Creation-Date: 2025-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/02/685435c7fc4feda8c042efd5cda41050.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2418 Classification-JEL: E21; E22; E23; E32; J62 Keywords:Business cycles; job finding; job separation; private savings Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2418 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University Author-Email:masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Title: Product Variety and Quality in Trade Dynamics Abstract: This paper documents that product quality in international trade is negatively correlated with the number of traded varieties in global data. We account for this substitutability between trade variety and quality by developing a two-country international business cycle model with heterogeneous firms that endogenously determine product quality while entering and exiting export markets. Our theoretical model successfully replicates the wedge-shaped pattern of cross-correlations between the number of product varieties and the quality of trade, along with key statistics on U.S. trade dynamics. Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2025-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/02/698b879afbba26453bf8f1d660ef3780.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2419 Classification-JEL: F12; F41; F43 Keywords:business cycle; product variety; product quality; firm heterogeneity Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2419 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University Author-Email:masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Author-Name: Philip Schnattinger Author-Name-First: Philip Author-Name-Last: Schnattinger Author-Workplace-Name:Bank of England Author-Email: Author-Name:Kongphop Wongkaew Author-Name-First: Kongphop Author-Name-Last: Wongkaew Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University Author-Email: Title: Search frictions in good markets and CPI inflation Abstract: We develop a New Keynesian DSGE model to examine how preference shifts between online and brick-and-mortar retail affect pricing dynamics and inflation. Central to our model are goods market search frictions, which govern the interaction between retailers and producers. We introduce distinct search efficiencies for online and brick-and-mortar retailers, capturing the evolving retail landscape. Our analysis reveals two key channels through which these frictions impact inflation: the composition channel, arising from differing search efficiencies, and the arbitrage channel, reflecting changes in market tightness. Both channels operate through the search friction mechanism, altering the wedge between consumer and producer prices. Bayesian estimation identifies that both channels reinforce each other, lowering CPI inflation. This research highlights the critical role of goods market search frictions in understanding modern inflation dynamics. Length: 47 pages Creation-Date: 2025-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/02/833e3402ef25c48b7f2b398520f642fd.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2420 Classification-JEL: E31; E52; J64 Keywords:Search and matching friction; CPI inflation; Firm dynamics Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2420 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Similan Rujiwattanapong Author-Name-First: Similan Author-Name-Last: Rujiwattanapong Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:simi.rujiwattanapong@gmail.com Title: Welfare Cost of Business Cycles under Liquidity Constraints and Worker Heterogeneity Abstract: This paper studies the welfare cost of business cycles under incomplete markets and heterogeneous labour skills for male and female workers. The main goals are to estimate welfare gains and/or losses of economic agents if they could live in an economy without aggregate uncertainty, and to analyse the magnitudes of gains and/or losses among subgroups of agents. These tasks can be realised by calibrating a stochastic general equilibrium model with aggregate productivity shocks, individual skill uncertainty and unemployment risks, and compare the results to a similar model only without aggregate fluctuations. It is found that when business cycles are removed the overall welfare could increase up to almost 6% which is 700 times larger than the famous result in Lucas (1987). However, from a disaggregated perspective, the results are contrary to conventional expectation that subgroups with lower income should gain more benefit from the removal of business cycles due to the more adverse labour market conditions which hinder the ability to smooth consumption particularly under liquidity constraints and aggregate uncertainty. Instead, females gain less benefit than males, low-skilled workers are less better off than high-skilled workers, and unemployed workers gain slightly less than employed workers. Wealth inequality is found to remain fairly unchanged when business cycles are present in the economy although there is a noticeable shift in wealth distribution. Length: 32 pages Creation-Date: 2025-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/02/65da7e10856736ac5faff043b8115d44.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2421 Classification-JEL: E24; E32; J24; J64; J65 Keywords:Business cycles;wealth inequality; worker heterogeneity Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2421 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Author-Name: Yuki Murakami Author-Name-First: Yuki Author-Name-Last: Murakami Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:yuki.murakami.ym1@gmail.com Title: Frequency and Severity of Current Account Reversals: An Analysis with a Rational Expectations Regime Switching DSGE Model Abstract: We employ a small open economy model with debt-deflation, where agents form expectations regarding sudden stops—typically characterized by a combination of current account reversals and sharp output declines. To this end, we construct a rational expectations regime switching DSGE model with occasionally binding collateral constraints. In environments with frequent sudden stops, agents anticipate future occurrences more strongly. Heightened expectations of losing access to international financial markets prompt collateral-constrained households to increase precautionary savings. These additional savings help sustain consumption and support collateral prices during turbulent periods, counteracting capital flight. However, as sudden stops become more frequent, the welfare loss due to pecuniary externalities intensifies, necessitating stronger macroprudential capital control measures. We provide empirical evidence from emerging economies that aligns with our theoretical findings. Length: 36 pages Creation-Date: 2025-02 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/02/a113c45ecd268e05aefdf998551c0e89.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2422 Classification-JEL: F41; F44; E44; G01 Keywords:Small open economy, capital flows, regime switching Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2422 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Junko Koeda Author-Name-First: Junko Author-Name-Last: Koeda Author-Workplace-Name:Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email:l: jkoeda@waseda.jp. Author-Name: Bin Wei Author-Name-First: Bin Author-Name-Last: Wei Author-Workplace-Name: Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Author-Email:bin.wei@atl.frb.org. Title: Forward Guidance and Its Effectiveness: A Macro-Finance Shadow-Rate Framework Abstract: In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of outcome-based forward guidance, a key monetary policy tool that links a central bank’s policy decisions to specific economic outcomes. We develop a novel macro-finance shadow rate term structure model that incorporates unspanned macro factors and an outcome-based liftoff condition. To assess the effectiveness of forward guidance, we propose a novel method that decomposes the shadow rate into components attributable to forward guidance and other unconventional monetary policies. Using maximum likelihood estimation with an extended Kalman filter, we apply the model to both the United States and Japan. Our findings demonstrate that outcome-based forward guidance is effective, delivering significant monetary easing effects on the real economy during both effective lower bound periods of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, as well as during Japan’s era of unconventional monetary policy. Length: 54 pages Creation-Date: 2025-03 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/03/d8de4d67558707d56defc82dd17a9d31.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2423 Classification-JEL: E43; E44; E52; E58 Keywords: forward guidance, effective lower bound (ELB), liftoff, term structure, shadow rate, macro finance, unspanned macro factors Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2423 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Seoyeon Chang Author-Name-First: Seoyeon Author-Name-Last: Chang Author-Workplace-Name:School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Name: Sonoko Ishikawa Author-Name-First: Sonoko Author-Name-Last: Ishikawa Author-Workplace-Name:School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Name: Naoki Miyamoto Author-Name-First: Naoki Author-Name-Last: Miyamoto Author-Workplace-Name:School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Name: Ryo Takahashi Author-Name-First: Ryo Author-Name-Last: Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name:Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara Author-Email: ryotaka@ucsb.edu Title: Misperception or Discrimination? Gender Bias in Health Communication on Anemia Prevention Abstract: This study examines whether gender bias in health communication reduces the effectiveness of information provision and explores the mechanism behind it. Specifically, it investigates whether the bias is driven by statistical discrimination—misperceptions about women’s competence—or by tastebased discrimination. We conducted a randomized controlled trial in Cambodia, where participants watched a video featuring either a male or female health instructor explaining the benefits of iron supplements for anemia prevention. To test the mechanism, half of those assigned to the female instructor condition received a corrective message addressing misperceptions about women’s abilities. The results show that willingness to pay for the supplement was significantly lower when the information was delivered by a female instructor, but this gap disappeared when the corrective message was provided. Similar patterns were observed in a list experiment measuring implicit bias. These findings suggest that gender bias reduces the effectiveness of health communication and is primarily driven by misperceptions about women’s competence rather than by taste-based discrimination. Length: 21 pages Creation-Date: 2025-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/04/38722bc41eb76fb0a86476c5e6a75609.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2501 Classification-JEL: Keywords: anemia, gender bias, discrimination, misperception, list experiment Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2501 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name:School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Title: Heterogeneity in Tastes, Productivities, and Macroeconomic Volatility Abstract: This paper examines how heterogeneity in product-level tastes and firm-level technologies shapes macroeconomic fluctuations. We develop a general equilibrium model with multiproduct firms and endogenous entry, where firms adjust their product mix in response to aggregate shocks. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model replicates key business cycle moments and shows that low taste dispersion amplifies aggregate volatility by limiting per-product profit adjustments, whereas high dispersion dampens fluctuations. While firm-level productivity granularity also affects volatility, its impact is comparatively minor. A simplified analytical model reinforces these findings, highlighting the critical role of aggregate shock propagation to firm- and product-level fixed costs, as well as heterogeneity in tastes and technologies, in determining macroeconomic volatility. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2025-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/04/99b0d5af0bcbb552230c970fda2acf82-1.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2502 Classification-JEL: D24; E23; E32; L11; L60 Keywords: Firm Heterogeneity, Multi-Product Firms, Business Cycles, Product Quality Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2502 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Erika Ando Author-Name-First: Erika Author-Name-Last: Ando Author-Workplace-Name:Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: erika.402@toki.waseda.jp. Title: The relationship between household duties division and children’s late-night responsibilities: Factors influencing their role as young (adult) carers. Abstract: This study aims to clarify that imbalances in the division of time within children’s household may lead to them becoming young (adult) carers. When we accurately discuss young (adult) carers, we should define them with a specific range of age, household environment, responsibilities, and level of burden. However, deciding on the last term is hard because it depends on children’s characteristics. We then introduce the concept of "potential" young (adult) carers: children under 25 burdened with home duties. In addition, we focus on two-parent households. In two-parent households, if the parental division of home duties is functional, it is expected that children would not need to sacrifice rest time to engage in them; therefore, if children engage in home duties during times when they should be sleeping, we would observe a situation suggesting potential young (adult) carers and a lack of functional home duties division within their household. We use the cross-sectional data from time use and leisure activities conducted by the Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications in 2011 and 2016. We analyze the relationship between the mother’s home-duty time and the likelihood of children engaging in them late-night time. As the major results, we found that children tend to be potential young (adult) carers if (i) the mother’s homeduty and commuting time increase, children tend to do during times when they should be sleeping. In contrast, the father’s home-duty and commuting time decrease, children tend to do during times when they should be sleeping, (ii) father’s social status is low, (iii) when the child is female, there is a significant association with engaging in home duties at late-night. Length: 34 pages Creation-Date: 2025-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/04/0edda080b15e964d2624316e2cb93301.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2503 Classification-JEL: Keywords: young (adult) carers, two-parent household, home-duty time, imbalance in the division of time Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2503 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Makoto Fukumoto Author-Name-First: Makoto Author-Name-Last: Fukumoto Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University Title: Who Traded Away Democracy? Business-Backed Legislators during the Democratic Backsliding in Japan 1936-1942. Abstract: This study examines how economic elites respond to democratic backsliding, focusing on Japan from 1936 to 1942. Using an original dataset of Diet membersʼbiographies and board memberships, it analyzes the Imperial Japanese Armyʼs consolidation of power and shifts in parliamentary voting patterns and affiliations during critical legislative sessions. Employing difference-indifferences and event-study designs, the research evaluates the effects of two key shocks: economic sanctions and wartime procurement. Legislators tied to sanction-hit sectors, such as textiles and petrochemicals̶the weakest performers in the stock market̶shifted toward anti-democratic positions, while those from procurement-dependent sectors, like automobiles, maintained stable stances. Case studies further illustrate how economic vulnerability drove authoritarian realignment, challenging the notion that sanctions uniformly pressure elites. The findings underscore how elitesʼchanging bargaining power, rather than static preferences, shapes their resistance to or alignment with democratic backsliding, with struggling elites being the most inexpensive to coopt. Length: 90 pages Creation-Date: 2025-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/04/fdfa87802ba7b3c47a9cbf0b718a4ab0.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2504 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2504 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yue Cai Author-Name-First: Yue Author-Name-Last: Cai Author-Workplace-Name:University of Niigata Prefecture Author-Name: Kazuo Yamada Author-Name-First: Kazuo Author-Name-Last: Yamada Author-Workplace-Name:GSM, Kyoto University Author-Email: ymdkazuo+a5@gmail.com Title: Do Underwriters Utilize Soft Information in their Businesses? Abstract: This study re-examines the role of underwriters as a soft information acquisition process. Our paper utilizes the data from Japan for two reasons. First, using the data from Japan allows us to use a unique merger event between a commercial bank and a securities company in Japan. The event enabled the underwriter to access the private information that the commercial bank holds. Secondly, distinct features characterize the Japanese IPO process: (1) regulations explicitly prohibit setting the offering price outside of the filing range; and (2) although bookbuilding in Japan is intended to engage institutional investors, the majority of IPO shares are allocated to retail investors, which diminishes the incentive for these institutions to provide private information. Our main analysis reveals a narrowing of the IPO price filing range and an increase in the likelihood that the offer price is set inside the range. Additional analysis shows that such an effect is particularly pronounced among firms exhibiting higher levels of information asymmetry. The paper concludes that private information enables the underwriter to determine the pricing of issuance securities. Length: 41 pages Creation-Date: 2025-04 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/04/73b1f5ec05158ab55f6c95ab9a45476c.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2505 Classification-JEL:G12; G30; G41; N25 Keywords: Information production, Underwriters, IPOs, Commercial banks Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2505 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shuhei Nishitateno Author-Name-First: Shuhei Author-Name-Last: Nishitateno Author-Workplace-Name:Kwansei Gakuin University and RIETI Author-Email:shuhei0828@kwansei.ac.jp Author-Name: Yasuyuki Todo Author-Name-First: Yasuyuki Author-Name-Last: Todo Author-Workplace-Name:Waseda University and RIETI Author-Email:yastodo@waseda.jp Title: Economic and political impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative on Western nations in infrastructure investment competitions Abstract: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has led to a global proliferation of large-scale infrastructure projects. From the perspective of Western nations, the impacts of BRI infrastructure investments on economic, political, and security interests pose significant concerns. This paper examines the effects of the BRI on Japanese overseas infrastructure projects and diplomatic relations between Japan and BRI countries. Using a staggered difference-in-differences research design with a panel dataset covering 138 low- and middle-income countries from 2001 to 2020, we find that the BRI crowded out Japanese infrastructure projects and reduced political leaders’ visits from BRI countries to Japan. These effects are particularly pronounced for nations in the East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia regions, where the Japan–China competition for infrastructure investments is most intense. Furthermore, we identify the expansion of Chinese overseas infrastructure projects, particularly aid-based rather than debt-financed projects, as a key mechanism driving these effects. Length: 48 pages Creation-Date: 2025-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/05/6a2a58de7636689add5b6d8b60d8055f.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2506 Classification-JEL:F21; P00 Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative, Overseas infrastructure investments, Diplomatic relations, China, Japan Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2506 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Xincheng Qiu Author-Name-First: Xincheng Author-Name-Last: Qiu Author-Workplace-Name:Guanghua School of Management, Peking University Author-Email:xincheng.qiu@gsm.pku.edu.cn Author-Name: Masahiro Yoshida Author-Name-First: Masahiro Author-Name-Last: Yoshida Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo Author-Email:m.yoshida@waseda.jp Title: Climate Change and the Decline of Labor Share Abstract: We study the impact of climate change on the labor share. Using a newly constructed dataset combining US county-level labor shares with climate variables, we find that extreme temperatures reduce labor share. This adverse effect is more pronounced in industries with higher outdoor exposure and automation potential. We also show that extreme temperatures accelerate the adoption of industrial robots. Overall, climate change accounts for 14% of the decline in labor share during 2001–2019. In the last century, however, the opposing effects of decreased cold days and increased hot days offset each other, consistent with the well-documented constancy of labor share. Length: 51 pages Creation-Date: 2025-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/05/9b8bdcce4a86b14ae2a613e62552ff96.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2507 Classification-JEL:E25; Q54; O33 Keywords: climate change, labor share, automation Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2507 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masahiro Yoshida Author-Name-First: Masahiro Author-Name-Last: Yoshida Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo Author-Email:m.yoshida@waseda.jp Title: Climate Change and Outdoor Jobs: The Rise of Adult Male Dropouts Abstract: Male labor force participation rates (LFPR) in developed economies have been declining since the 1970s. This paper argues that modern climate change has fueled dropouts of adult males by eroding the traditional advantage of working outdoors. Using exposure to climate change across US commuting zones constructed from granular daily weather records for nearly half a century, I find that extreme temperature days hurt the LFPR of prime-age males. In the new century, climate change accounts for approximately 10-15 percent of the nationwide decline in LFPR. I find that outdoor jobs—prevalent across sectors and prominent in disadvantaged regions—are likely hotbeds of dropout. Disability accounts for a substantial proportion of climate-induced dropouts, but the majority of these are likely due to preference; the decline in LFPR has been catalyzed by the spread of housing amenities (e.g., air conditioning and cable TV) and access to affluent family backgrounds. Overall, the results suggest that climate change exacerbates socioeconomic inequality. Length: 98 pages Creation-Date: 2025-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/05/71c93d492618eb34b08472752eaa8d8f.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2508 Classification-JEL:J21; J22; Q54 Keywords: Climate change, Male labor force participation, Outdoor jobs Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2508 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ryota Ishikawa Author-Name-First: Ryota Author-Name-Last: Ishikawa Author-Workplace-Name:Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: i-ryota@fuji.waseda.jp Title: Identification of social effects through variations in network structures Abstract: Bramoull´e et al. (2009) provided identification conditions for linear social interaction models through network structures. Despite the importance of their results, the authors omitted detailed mathematical discussions. Moreover, they consider cases where many identical networks are observed simultaneously within the same dataset. In reality, multiple networks with different structures, such as classrooms or villages, are repeatedly observed within the same dataset. The purpose of this paper is to fill in the mathematical gaps in their arguments and to establish identification conditions for networks with different structures. In addition, we find the smallest network size as a necessary condition for identifying social effects. We also discuss the identification conditions of network models with a fixed network effect. Length: 26 pages Creation-Date: 2025-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL:https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/05/291d68fc6828785e0934939f8a5337f1.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2509 Classification-JEL:C31; D85 Keywords: identification, network model, social interactions, network size Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2509 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Chai (Kai Shibata) Author-Name-First: Peter (Kai) Author-Name-Last: Chai (Shibata) Author-Workplace-Name:Graduate School of Political Science, Waseda University Author-Email: peterchai@fuji.waseda.jp Title: A Study on Environmental Concern in Mainland China Based on the Latest Three Waves of the World Values Survey Abstract: This study uses the latest three waves of the transnational survey database World Values Survey to empirically investigate the relationships between environmental concern and a set of demographic variables relevant for the postmaterialist thesis including (1) age (2) education level (3) income and (4) urbanization in Mainland China. Responses on (1) priority over economic growth or environmental protection and (2) activeness in environmental organizations are chosen to represent environmental concern. This study employs a two step approach conducting both separate regressions for each wave and an aggregate regression with all the waves combined. Results show that age and education seem to be better “predictors” for environmental concern than the other demographic variables, in other words, the “socialization hypotheses” seem to work better than the “scarcity hypotheses” under the postmaterialist framework in Mainland China, a “natural laboratory” with large demographic variations and a “Confucian” background. The inconsistencies in how the demographic variables perform by question item and wave and the difference in the separate and aggregated regression results show the relevance of the “Asian uniqueness” argument. The example of environmental concern shows how citizens possessing liberal values and positive attitudes toward New Left issues in Mainland China can have diverse demographic backgrounds. Length: 26 pages Creation-Date: 2025-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/05/32262478c431cd784f2e8820276f33e3.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2510 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Environmental Values, World Values Survey, Mainland China Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2510 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ryotaro Yamana Author-Name-First: Ryotaro Author-Name-Last: Yamana Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Name: Ryo Takahashi Author-Name-First: Ryo Author-Name-Last: Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name: Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara Author-Email: ryotaka@ucsb.edu Title: Power of Language: The Impact of Multilingual Recognition on Political Participation among Linguistic Minorities Abstract: This study investigates whether symbolic inclusion can promote political participation among linguistic minorities. Leveraging Zimbabwe’s 2013 multilingual policy as a quasi-experimental setting, we examine the effects of the official recognition of minority languages on political participation and its underlying mechanisms. Using a difference-in-differences model, we find that the policy increased voter turnout among linguistic minorities by approximately 10 percentage points, with particularly strong effects observed among rural residents and women. Mechanism analysis suggests that this behavioral change was not driven by increased feelings of social inclusion, but rather by improved perceptions of democracy and political freedom, which enhanced the perceived legitimacy of electoral participation. These findings underscore the potential of symbolic inclusion policies—such as multilingual reforms—to strengthen institutional connectivity and foster democratic engagement among historically marginalized groups. Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2025-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/05/Power-of-Language.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2511 Classification-JEL: Keywords: nation building, ethnic minority, language Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2511 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Similan Rujiwattanapong Author-Name-First: Similan Author-Name-Last: Rujiwattanapong Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University and Centre for Macroeconomics Author-Email: sruji@waseda.jp Author-Name: Masahiro Yoshida Author-Name-First: Masahiro Author-Name-Last: Yoshida Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo Author-Email: m.yoshida@waseda.jp Title: Climate Change and Unemployment Seasonality: Evidence from US Counties Abstract: Historically, unemployment peaks in the first and third quarters—the arrival of cold winters and hot summers. This paper attributes non-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) unemployment fluctuations to temperature shocks and assesses the impact of climate change on unemployment seasonality. Combining granular daily weather across US counties with monthly unemployment rates over the period 1990-2019, we find that extreme temperature days fuel unemployment by freezing hiring and triggering layoffs and thus, insurance claims and recipients. Climate change accounts for 40% of the decline in unemployment seasonality and 13% of the moderation in fluctuations in the overall NSA unemployment rate. Accelerated future warming will propagate the unemployment seasonality through milder winters and harsher summers. Length: 28 pages Creation-Date: 2025-05 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/05/f610eca5f3b8122b4726b60435412a9c.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2512 Classification-JEL: J63; J64; J65; Q54 Keywords: Climate change, Unemployment rate, Unemployment seasonality, Unemployment insurance Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2512 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jingru WANG Author-Name-First: Jingru Author-Name-Last: WANG Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: ouseinyo@ruri.waseda.jp Author-Name: Yukihiko FUNAKI Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: FUNAKI Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: funaki@waseda.jp Author-Name: Ryuichiro ISHIKAWA Author-Name-First: Ryuichiro Author-Name-Last: ISHIKAWA Author-Workplace-Name: School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University Author-Email: r.ishikawa@waseda.jp Author-Name: Yoshiaki OGURA Author-Name-First: Yoshiaki Author-Name-Last: OGURA Author-Workplace-Name: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: yogura@waseda.jp Title: An experimental analysis of the IPO pricing mechanism: The case of Book-building Abstract: This study conducts the first laboratory experiment using a direct mechanism to investigate the efficiency of the Book-building (BB) method in Initial Public Offering (IPO) pricing. Contrary to the global empirical regularity of IPO underpricing, our experiment frequently observes overpricing relative to the fundamental value. This phenomenon is caused by overstated offers and particularly pronounced when investors are unsophisticated, suggesting that overpricing arises from insufficient compensation on information elicitation, belief-action mismatches, and sentimental behavior as explained by investor active participant bias. Our findings offer two main contributions. First, we demonstrate that, in the absence of ex ante screening and ex post adjustments, the theoretical model of the BB method results in severe IPO overpricing, necessitating the setting of filing range and issuer’s strategic underpricing adjustment. Second, investor sentiment can be seen as the cause of price increases in both IPOs and first-day closing prices, the extent is determined by the proportion of unsophisticated investors. These results highlight the effect of behavioral distortions in IPO pricing and point to the importance of institutional sophistication and investor screening in improving the efficiency and transparency of BB method. Length: 43 pages Creation-Date: 2025-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/06/5850f3f35646a4846fcdbfda7ead684e.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2513 Classification-JEL: Keywords: IPO, Book-building, Underpricing, Active Participation Hypothesis Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2513 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yuki Murakami Author-Name-First: Yuki Author-Name-Last: Murakami Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: yuki.murakami.ym1@gmail.com Title: Time-Varying Volatility in Emerging Market Business Cycles Abstract: This paper focuses on the time-varying volatility of aggregate fluctuations in emerging markets. Both Latin American and Asian emerging economies experience volatility spikes during financial crises; however, only the latter group exhibits a long-run decline in volatility. Using business cycle data from South Korea, we estimate a small open economy real business cycle model with Markov-switching shock variances. We compare the model fit across alternative specifications of shock volatility structures and investigate the underlying drivers of volatility changes. The results indicate that the data favor the model in which all shock variances switch regimes synchronously. The estimated model captures both the declining trend in volatility over time and temporary volatility spikes during episodes of financial turmoil. It suggests that the long-run decline in volatility is not primarily driven by a reduction in the variance of the interest rate premium shock, though this shock contributes to temporary volatility spikes during crises. The model replicates key business cycle features of emerging markets and highlights that the drivers of aggregate fluctuations depend on the volatility regime. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2025-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/06/a9e2c2b2eda5d0acdbe02f754df376df.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2514 Classification-JEL: E32, F41, C13 Keywords: Small open economy; real business cycles; regime switching Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2514 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Taro Shinoda Author-Name-First: Taro Author-Name-Last: Shinoda Author-Workplace-Name: Shinshu University Author-Email: labatt_0526@ruri.waseda.jp Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yukihiko Funaki Author-Name-First: Yukihiko Author-Name-Last: Funaki Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: Title: The Core and the Equal Division Core in a Three-person Unstructured Bargaining Experiment: The Weakest Coalition is Ignored Abstract: Cooperative game theory addresses two problems: coalition formation and payoff distribution. We hypothesize that the existence of the core, which is a fundamental concept in cooperative game theory, affects coalition formation, and we examine this hypothesis through a laboratory experiment. In the experiment, three subjects in a group bargain with each other on both the coalition formation and the payoff distribution simultaneously. The bargaining protocol is unstructured, i.e., similar to a real bargaining situation. As a result, we obtain the following findings. First, the existence of a core strongly induces the formation of the grand coalition. Second, resulting allocations are frequently in the core when it exists and are at least in the equal division core, which is an extension of the core. Finally, resulting allocations that are outside of the equal division core mostly arise due to ignorance of domination via coalition BC, which is the lowest-value two-person coalition. Length: 26 pages Creation-Date: 2025-06 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/06/9831130949f5cf8714156775919dd77d.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2515 Classification-JEL: C71, C91, C92 Keywords: laboratory experiment, unstructured bargaining, cooperative games, the core, communication Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2515 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Keitaro Nagai Author-Name-First: Keitaro Author-Name-Last: Nagai Author-Workplace-Name: Hakuoh University Author-Email: knagai@fc.hakuoh.ac.jp Title: From Coal to Petroleum: Japan’s Chemical Industry and MITI’s Raw Material Conversion Policy Abstract: This study investigates the transition from coal-to petroleum-based production in Japan’s chemical industry during the high-growth era by focusing on the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) raw material conversion policies. Through case studies, this study reexamines the prevailing view of MITI’s role in Japan’s economic development, highlighting a collaborative policymaking process between the government and industry. The analysis elucidates how acetaldehyde production shifted swiftly to petrochemical methods during the Second Petrochemical Phase Plan (1960–1964) as MITI’s policies incorporated earlier proposals from industry. For ammonia, the transition happened through the First and Second Large-Scale Expansion Plans launched in 1965 and 1967, respectively. These policies were formally established by the MITI, but they were implemented in response to requests from industry stakeholders. Length: 36 pages Creation-Date: 2025-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/07/66aada111561865f59dd489078082af3.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2516 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Industrial Policy, MITI (Ministry of International Trade and Industry), HighGrowth Era, Chemical Industry, Energy Transition Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2516 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kohei Takahashi Author-Name-First: Kohei Author-Name-Last: Takahashi Author-Workplace-Name: Institute for Well-being and Productivity Studies, Waseda University Author-Email: ko-takahashi@aoni.waseda.jp Title: Specialists and Generalists in Adaptive Organizations Abstract: This study examines the optimal organizational composition of specialists and generalists theoretically and empirically, using a model based on Dessein and Santos (2006). It assumes that specialists excel in adaptation given their deep knowledge in specific areas but face coordination challenges given limited knowledge of other areas. In contrast, generalists benefit from broad task experience, making them superior in coordination but less effective in adaptation than specialists. The model predicts the following monotonicity: the optimal organizational structure shifts from one with many specialists to one with many generalists as the importance of coordination (relative to adaptation) increases or as market uncertainty increases under the condition that the importance of coordination is sufficiently high. These predictions are tested using employee assignment history data from a large Japanese trading company. The dataset includes employees who joined the company in fiscal year 1984 or later and their records up to fiscal year 2023. As predicted, divisions in commodity trading, where adaptation to their market condition is relatively crucial, have more specialists than divisions in business investment, where coordination is key. Among the business investment divisions, the proportion of generalists is higher in those with higher market uncertainty. Length: 45 pages Creation-Date: 2025-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/07/E2517.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2517 Classification-JEL: J24, M50, M53, M54 Keywords: Human capital development, Career, Specialists and generalists, Training, Job assignment Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2517 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Chai (Kai Shibata) Author-Name-First: Peter Author-Name-Last: Chai Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Political Science, Waseda University Author-Email: peterchai@fuji.waseda.jp Title: A Study on Attitudes Toward Family and Gender in Mainland China Based on the Latest Three Waves of the Asian Barometer Abstract: In this study, I use the latest three waves of the Asian Barometer survey to investigate the relationships between a set of demographic indicators including (1) age (2) education (3) income (4) urbanization relevant for the postmaterialist thesis and attitudes toward family structure and gender roles represented by four question items in the traditionalism section which focus on (1) putting family interests first (2) obeying parents’ orders (3) wives obeying mothers-in-law (4) preferring boy than girl babies in Mainland China. This study employs a two-step approach conducting both separate regressions for each wave and an aggregated regression with all the waves combined. Descriptive statistics show that there is no decreasing trend in the traditional attitudes toward family and gender across the three waves. Separate regression results show that in general age and education perform more consistently than income and urbanization. Large inconsistencies exist in how the demographic variables perform across question items and waves and between the separate and aggregate regressions. The demographic variables perform more consistently in the aggregated regression than the separate regressions. The unclear longitudinal trends and inconsistencies in the regression results suggest that the “socialization” and “scarcity hypotheses” do not work so well, and the “Asian uniqueness” argument is relevant in the context of Mainland China, a “natural laboratory” with large demographic variations and a “Confucian” background. To elaborate more on the implications of “Confucianism,” other societies in the Greater China area and East Asia can be compared, and to improve sample quality, provide qualitative explanations, and distinguish and address gender topics on different levels, other methods using domestic surveys, survey experiments, text analysis, interviews, and fieldwork can be incorporated. Length: 28 pages Creation-Date: 2025-07 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/07/E2518.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2518 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Family Structure, Gender Roles, Asian Barometer, Mainland China Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2518 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Akifumi Kusano Author-Name-First: Akifumi Author-Name-Last: Kusano Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University; Waseda Institute of Social and Human Capital Studies (WISH), Tokyo, Japan Author-Email: kusano@akane.waseda.jp Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of School of Political Science and Economics, Tokyo, Japan; WISH, Tokyo, Japan Author-Email: h.noguchi@waseda.jp Author-Name: Yichen Shen Author-Name-First: Yichen Author-Name-Last: Shen Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Health Innovation, Kanagawa University of Human Services, Kawasaki, Kanagawa, Japan; WISH, Tokyo, Japan Author-Email: shenyc@toki.waseda.jp Title: Stretched Too Thin? Gender Disparities in Labor, Caregiving, and Mental Health Responses to Partner Stroke Abstract: When a family member experiences a severe health shock, household members must reallocate time between employment and caregiving, with potentially significant welfare consequences. We examine how a partner’s stroke affects labor supply, informal caregiving, and mental health using longitudinal data from Japan (2005-2018) and a staggered difference-in-differences design exploiting the sudden nature of stroke. We document stark gender disparities: males show no significant changes in employment or mental health, while females maintain employment but increase caregiving by 6.8 percentage points, reallocate care from other family members to their partner, and experience significant mental health deterioration (Kessler-6 scores worsen by 0.41 points). These patterns reveal that females face binding time constraints—they are “stretched too thin”—unable to increase labor supply to offset household income losses (declining by 10.2 percent) while meeting intensive caregiving demands. Critically, these aggregate effects mask substantial heterogeneity: lower-educated females experience severe triple burdens—large income losses, increased caregiving, and mental health deterioration approaching clinical thresholds—while college-educated females manage caregiving increases without welfare losses. Our findings demonstrate that informal care policies impose substantial hidden costs concentrated among economically vulnerable women and have important implications for caregiver support policies in aging societies. Length: 52 pages Creation-Date: 2025-08 Revision-Date: 2025-12 Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/08/E2519.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2519 Classification-JEL: J12, J14, J16, J22 Keywords: Stroke, added worker effect, informal care, mental health, labor supply Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2519 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Akifumi Kusano Author-Name-First: Akifumi Author-Name-Last: Kusano Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University; Waseda Institute of Social and Human Capital Studies (WISH), Tokyo, Japan Author-Email: kusano@akane.waseda.jp Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of School of Political Science and Economics, Tokyo, Japan; WISH, Tokyo, Japan Author-Email: Author-Name: Yichen Shen Author-Name-First: Yichen Author-Name-Last: Shen Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Health Innovation, Kanagawa University of Human Services, Kawasaki, Kanagawa, Japan; WISH, Tokyo, Japan Author-Email: Title: The Effect of Maternity Ward Closures on Physician’s Practice and Health Outcomes in Japan Abstract: The maternity ward closures are observing across many countries, yet little known about how the closures affect obstetrician behavior and delivery practices. The unique institutional setting in Japan, exclusion of natural delivery from public health insurance, creates a unique institutional setting for analyzing physician’s delivery practices. This study analyzes the effect of hospital-based maternity ward closures on cesarean section practice and health outcomes. Using the Survey of Medical Institutions and Vital Statistics and employing a staggered difference-in-differences, we show that clinics increased the rate of cesarean section regardless of risk-factors of cesarean delivery. Moreover, this result was driven by private clinics. We interpret this result as evidence of overuse of cesarean sections that was caused by physician’s profit-maximizing behavior. Our findings imply that the expansion of insurance coverage for delivery care can mitigate this unintended effect. Length: 35 pages Creation-Date: 2025-08 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/08/E2520.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2520 Classification-JEL: I13, I18, J1 Keywords: Cesarean delivery, Physician-induced demand, Maternity ward closure Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2520 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masayuki Odora Author-Name-First: Masayuki Author-Name-Last: Odora Author-Workplace-Name: Global Education Center, Waseda University Author-Email: odora_masa@fuji.waseda.jp Title: The Model of Clickbait: Fact-Checking and Endogenous Information Acquisition Abstract: I study the role of fact-checking in a two-period strategic communication game between a decision maker and a media outlet. The decision maker relies on the outlet’s article to take a binary action, while the outlet may exert costly effort to acquire information before publishing. The decision maker is uncertain about the outlet’s motive: the outlet might be opportunistic, caring only about attracting clicks. Fact-checking probabilistically reveals the payoff-relevant state. I highlight a trade-off between the diagnostic effect and the discipline effect that arises when the probability of fact-checking successfully revealing the state increases. Consequently, introducing fact-checking or increasing its success probability may, in some parameter ranges, reduce the decision maker’s welfare. Length: 44 pages Creation-Date: 2025-10 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/10/E2521WP_ODORA.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2521 Classification-JEL: C72, D83, L82 Keywords: Fact-checking, Information acquisition, Cheap-talk Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2521 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masashige Hamano Author-Name-First: Masashige Author-Name-Last: Hamano Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University, School of Political Science and Economics Author-Email: masashige.hamano@waseda.jp Author-Name: Yuki Murakami Author-Name-First: Yuki Author-Name-Last: Murakami Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University, Graduate School of Economics Author-Email: yuki.murakami.ym1@gmail.com Title: Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions, and the Green Transition Abstract: This paper highlights the potential for decoupling economic growth from CO2 emissions under strong policy, while providing a tractable framework for analyzing the long-run global green transition. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms: green firms abate emissions at higher costs, while brown firms do not. Emissions reduce aggregate productivity but are not internalized in competitive equilibrium. Using global data from 1981 to 2022, we calibrate the model to match observed trends in GDP and emissions. The analysis delivers three main findings. First, while emissions continue to rise, the share of green firms grows over time. Second, faster technological progress amplifies the growth–emissions trade-off, whereas slower progress attenuates it. Third, welfare analysis shows that the optimal emission tax must be substantially higher than current levels, though its role is moderated when combined with abatement innovation. Together, these results underscore the importance of policy in sustaining growth while mitigating environmental externalities. Length: 25 pages Creation-Date: 2025-10 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/10/E2522.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2522 Classification-JEL: Q54, Q58, E32, F44 Keywords: Climate change, Green transition, Heterogeneous firms, Economic growth, DSGE models Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2522 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Masato Oikawa Author-Name-First: Masato Author-Name-Last: Oikawa Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Education and Integrated Arts and Sciences, Waseda University; Waseda Institute of Social & Human Capital Studies (WISH), Tokyo, Japan Author-Email: m.oikawa@waseda.jp Author-Name: Takumi Toyono Author-Name-First: Takumi Author-Name-Last: Toyono Author-Workplace-Name: WISH, Tokyo, Japan Author-Email: toyotaku0224@fuji.waseda.jp Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University; WISH, Tokyo, Japan Author-Email: h.noguchi@waseda.jp Author-Name: Akira Kawamura Author-Name-First: Akira Author-Name-Last: Kawamura Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Human Sciences, Waseda University; WISH, Tokyo, Japan Author-Email: akawamura@waseda.jp Title: When women work, children thrive: Gender-specific employment shocks and child abuse deaths Abstract: This study examines how gender-specific labor market opportunities affect child welfare, focusing on fatal child maltreatment. Using Japan’s comprehensive vital statistics and a shift-share identification strategy exploiting differential regional exposure to national industry employment shocks (2005-2018), we find striking opposite effects by gender. A 0.5% point increase in male employment growth increases child abuse deaths by 116%, while the same increase in female employment growth reduces these deaths by 93%. We identify maternal mental health as a key mechanism, with male employment growth correlating with deteriorating maternal well-being, while female employment opportunities improve women’s psychological health. Effects are most pronounced among the vulnerable with lower socioeconomic status — precisely those most susceptible to economic shocks. Our findings reveal that aggregate employment policies can mask offsetting gender-specific effects with profound consequences for child welfare. The results suggest that targeted interventions enhancing women’s economic opportunities could simultaneously reduce child maltreatment and advance gender equality. More broadly, this research demonstrates the critical importance of gender-disaggregated analysis in economic policy design, as standard employment measures may conceal significant distributional effects on family welfare. Length: 62 pages Creation-Date: 2025-11 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/11/E2523.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2523 Classification-JEL: I10, J12, J13, J16, J23, R23 Keywords: child fatal maltreatment, gender-specific employment shocks, shift-share research design, maternal mental health Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2523 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ryota Ishikawa Author-Name-First: Ryota Author-Name-Last: Ishikawa Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: i-ryota@fuji.waseda.jp Title: Efficiency Bound for Social Interaction Models with Network Structures Abstract: Bramoull´e et al. (2009) considered a linear social interaction model with network structures under complete information. However, their model is not appropriate for the case where the individual outcome is not completely observed or not precisely predictable by the other individuals in the same group. In this paper, we consider a linear social interaction model with network structures under incomplete information and derive the efficiency bound. The efficiency bound for the model considered in this paper had not been derived before. We also provide a sufficient condition for the existence of the efficiency bound. Length: 12 pages Creation-Date: 2025-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/12/E2524.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2524 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2524 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yuichi Watanabe Author-Name-First: Yuichi Author-Name-Last: Watanabe Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO), Chiba, Japan Author-Email: yuichi_watanabe@ide.go.jp Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan Author-Email: h.noguchi@waseda.jp Title: Beyond Average Effects: Heterogeneous Impacts of Health Checkup and Behavioral Guidance on Health Care Abstract: There exists a globally growing concern regarding the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), and Japan is no exception, as lifestyle-related NCDs have a significant impact on public health. To prevent the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and control rising healthcare costs, the Japanese government initiated a novel annual health checkup program in April 2008. We examine how organized prevention programs affect healthcare outcomes, separately identifying screening effects versus behavioral intervention effects while documenting substantial heterogeneity across demographic subgroups. Using comprehensive administrative data from Japan’s National Health Insurance system (FY 2011–2016), we employ instrumental variable estimation exploiting peer participation rates to address selection bias in voluntary health checkups, and difference-in-differences estimation leveraging systematic assignment rules for behavioral guidance interventions. Health checkup participation generates minimal average effects but substantial heterogeneity: younger participants (40–64 years) reduce hospitalization, while elderly participants (65–74 years) increase outpatient care expenditures. Males experience higher inpatient care costs; females significantly reduce hospitalization. Income-based heterogeneity is absent, suggesting Japan’s universal coverage successfully minimizes financial barriers. Strikingly, light-touch motivational support proves more effective than intensive sixmonth guidance at increasing outpatient care utilization, with effects concentrated among elderly, female, and lower-income populations. These findings reveal fundamental misalignment in current program design: resource-intensive interventions target populations least responsive to behavioral guidance while the most responsive populations receive minimal support. Our results challenge conventional dose-response assumptions and have important implications for optimal prevention program design in aging societies worldwide, suggesting substantial efficiency gains through reallocation toward targeted light-touch interventions. Length: 80 pages Creation-Date: 2025-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/12/E2525.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2525 Classification-JEL: I12, I13, I18, J14 Keywords: Health checkups, Behavioral guidance, Health care, Heterogeneous effects, Administrative data Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2525 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Makoto Fukumoto Author-Name-First: Makoto Author-Name-Last: Fukumoto Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda University Author-Email: mfukumoto@waseda.jp Title: The Cornered Mouse: Sanctioned Elites and Authoritarian Realignment in the Japanese Legislature, 1936-1942. Abstract: This study examines how economic elites respond to the erosion of democratic checks and balances, focusing on the Japanese legislature from 1936 to 1942. Using an original dataset of Diet membersʼbiographies and board memberships, it analyzes the Imperial Japanese Armyʼs consolidation of power and shifts in parliamentary voting patterns amid the suppression of dissent. Employing difference-in-differences and event-study designs, the study evaluates the effects of two key shocks: economic sanctions and wartime procurement. Legislators tied to sanction-hit sectors̶such as textiles and petrochemicals, the weakest performers in the stock market shifted toward authoritarian alignment. Biographical and legislative records suggest this shift was facilitated by regime-backed campaign finance. In contrast, legislators from procurement-dependent sectors, such as automobiles, maintained stable voting behavior. The findings complicate the conventional view that sanctions prompt elites to advocate international policy change. Instead, they show that sanctions can drive vulnerable actors to submit domestically, thereby accelerating authoritarian consolidation. Length: 104 pages Creation-Date: 2025-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/12/E2526.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2526 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2526 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Rong Fu Author-Name-First: Rong Author-Name-Last: Fu Author-Workplace-Name: School of Commerce, Waseda University, and Waseda Institute of Social & Human Capital Studies (WISH) Author-Email: nataliefu@waseda.jp Author-Name: Yunkyu Sohn Author-Name-First: Yunkyu Author-Name-Last: Sohn Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Sociology, Seoul National University Author-Email: ysohn@snu.ac.kr Author-Name: Yichen Shen Author-Name-First: Yichen Author-Name-Last: Shen Author-Workplace-Name: School of Health Innovation, Kanagawa University of Human Services, and WISH Author-Email: shenyc@toki.waseda.jp Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, and WISH. Author-Email: h.noguchi@waseda.jp Title: Invisible Threat, Tangible Harm: Radiation Anxiety and Birth Outcomes After Fukushima Abstract: Identifying causal effects of prenatal psychological stress on birth outcomes is challenging because stressful events typically bundle psychological stress with material disruptions. The 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident provides a unique setting to overcome this challenge: while physical radiation exposure was geographically limited and well-documented, fear of radiation spread nationwide. We exploit this geographic separation to examine how maternal anxiety independently affects fetal development. Using universal Japanese birth records linked to census data, combined with a novel Google Trends-based measure of radiation-specific anxiety, we employ three complementary identification strategies: population-level comparisons of in-utero exposed versus unexposed cohorts, within-family sibling analysis controlling for time-invariant family characteristics, and dose-response estimation exploiting geographic variation in anxiety intensity. Prenatal exposure to the accident increased preterm births by 16% and reduced birth weights by 22-26 grams. Birth outcomes exhibit a clear dose-response relationship with anxiety intensity: each standard deviation increase in radiation-specific fear corresponds to 4-5 gram birth weight reductions and 7% increases in preterm births. Effects are concentrated among socioeconomically disadvantaged mothers and during first-trimester exposure. Our findings demonstrate that invisible threats generate measurable intergenerational health impacts through psychological stress pathways, with implications for disaster preparedness and risk communication during contemporary crises from pandemics to climate change. Length: 50 pages Creation-Date: 2025-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/12/E2527.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2527 Classification-JEL: Q54; J13; I14; I18 Keywords: Prenatal Stress; Birth Outcomes; Nuclear Disasters; Google Trends; Fetal Origins Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2527 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Takumi Toyono Author-Name-First: Takumi Author-Name-Last: Toyono Author-Workplace-Name: Waseda Institute of Social & Human Capital Studies (WISH), Waseda University Author-Email: toyotaku0224@fuji.waseda.jp Author-Name: Haruko Noguchi Author-Name-First: Haruko Author-Name-Last: Noguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University; WISH; Author-Email: h.noguchi@waseda.jp Title: Natural Disaster Exposure and Informal Caregiving Burdens: Intensive and Extensive Margin Responses Abstract: As natural disasters increase in frequency and severity globally and populations age rapidly, understanding how disasters affect informal care systems becomes critical for policy design in aging societies. This study examines the causal impact of disaster exposure on informal caregiving burdens and caregiver health, exploiting spatial variation in seismic intensity from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Using difference-in-differences estimation applied to unique longitudinal survey data linked to administrative records, we provide the first empirical evidence distinguishing impacts across the intensive margin (existing caregivers) and extensive margin (new caregivers) — a theoretically important distinction grounded in household production theory that prior disaster-caregiving research has overlooked. We find that a 12 percentage point increase in the proportion of destroyed or damaged houses increases weekly care time by 8.5 hours (45.9% increase) among existing caregivers and raises care provision likelihood by 2.3 percentage points (19.5% increase) among new caregivers. Mental health deteriorates exclusively among new caregivers, with effects concentrated among female and less-educated caregivers. Two key mechanisms drive these effects: disrupted formal at-home care services, with an estimated elasticity of informal-to-formal care substitution near unity, and reduced employment among new caregivers. Our findings reveal substantial hidden welfare costs beyond standard disaster impact assessments and demonstrate that optimal policy responses must account for fundamental differences in household adjustment mechanisms across margins. The results have broad relevance for disaster preparedness planning in aging economies worldwide. Length: 86 pages Creation-Date: 2025-12 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/12/E2528.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2528 Classification-JEL: I10, J14, Q54 Keywords: natural disaster, informal caregiving, caregiver health, intensive and extensive margins, long-term care Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2528 #### Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Tsuyoshi Nihonsugi Author-Name-First: Tsuyoshi Author-Name-Last: Nihonsugi Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Osaka University of Economics Author-Email: t.nihonsugi@gmail.com Author-Name: Yoshio Kamijo Author-Name-First: Yoshio Author-Name-Last: Kamijo Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University Author-Email: yoshio.kamijo@waseda.jp Author-Name: Satoshi Taguchi Author-Name-First: Satoshi Author-Name-Last: Taguchi Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Commerce, Doshisha University Author-Email: staguchi@mail.doshisha.ac.jp Author-Name: Shigeharu Okajima Author-Name-First: Shigeharu Author-Name-Last: Okajima Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University Author-Email: shigeharu.okajima@gmail.com Author-Name: Hiroko Okajima Author-Name-First: Hiroko Author-Name-Last: Okajima Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University Author-Email: hiroko.okajima@gmail.com Title: Beyond Backlash: How Gender Quotas Empower Women and Shape Workplace Attitudes in Japanese Hiring Abstract: This study examines how gender quotas influence job application decisions and occupational choices in Japan, and how these effects vary across individual characteristics. Using a choice-based conjoint experiment with 1,167 participants, we analyze preferences for positions with and without gender quotas across different job types. We find that gender quotas significantly increase women's application likelihood by approximately 10 percentage points, with the strongest effects among high-performing employed women, while not discouraging applications from comparably qualified men. Beyond increasing female representation, quotas enable women to make occupational choices that better align with their preferences and are associated with higher expected productivity and workplace well-being. Further analysis reveals that support for gender quotas relates systematically to personality traits, gender role beliefs, and prior experiences—notably, men who recognize past gender advantages show greater support for quotas. These findings provide actionable insights for designing inclusive recruitment strategies and diversity policies in non-Western contexts, demonstrating that well-designed quotas can promote both equity and efficiency in labor markets. Length: 31 pages Creation-Date: 2026-01 Revision-Date: Publication-Status: File-URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2026/01/E2529.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version Number: 2529 Classification-JEL: Keywords: gender quotas, affirmative action, gender gap, hiring discrimination, occupational segregation, labor market Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2529